E-Focus: @RISK used to Secure Financing for Infrastructure Projects in South Africa In This Issue
What’s New

» @RISK Used to Secure
   Financing for Infrastructure
   Projects in South Africa

» Case Studies, Training, and
   Consulting at Palisade Risk
   Conference Sydney

» Monte Carlo & Reinsurance
   in National Underwriter
   P&C Magazine

Case Study
» Unknown Unknowns in
   Project Probabilistic Cost
   and Schedule Risk Models

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Determining the Optimal
   Reorder Point and Quantity
   in Inventory Management

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Industry experts present real-world case studies, Palisade consultants deliver workshops and training, plus sneak previews of new software. Don't miss the opportunity to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge.
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Beijing: 16-17 May
Hong Kong: 13-14 June
Melbourne: 19-20 June
Sydney: 10-11 July
Auckland: 18-19 July

» Brazil
Curitiba: 9-11 de maio
São Paulo: 23-25 de maio
Recife: 13-15 de junho
Belo Horizonte: 27-29 de junho

» EMEA & India
Copenhagen: 26-27 April
Madrid: 11-12 May
Abu Dhabi: 14-16 May
London: 22-23 May
Amsterdam: 29-31 May
London: 19-20 June
Paris: 21-22 June
Mumbai: 2-3 July
Bangalore: 5-6 July

» Latin America
Santiago: 18-20 de abril
Buenos Aires: 23-25 de abril
Quito: 2-4 de mayo
Villahermosa: 9-11 de mayo
Medellín: 13-15 de junio

» North America
Chicago: 24-26 April
Jersey City: 8-10 May
Houston: 15-17 May
Minneapolis: 22-23 May
Seattle: 12-14 June
Cayman Islands: 13-15 June
Toronto: 27-29 June
Boston: 17-19 July
Calgary: 31 July - 1 August

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

5-6 July, 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 May, 11am-3pm ET
26-27 July, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite

4-5 June, 1pm-5pm ET
21-22 June, 1pm-5pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

30 May, 11am-3pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

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@RISK Used to Secure Financing for Infrastructure Projects in South Africa
Civil engineering company Bigen Africa works across South Africa facilitating projects that bring basic services, such as housing, water and electricity to local communities. It uses @RISK to ensure that the overall requirement is fully understood and that informed decisions are made about implementing a program. In particular this provides the level of detail needed to secure commercial finance.

With project teams that include engineers, project managers, town planners and project finance specialists, Bigen Africa brings housing, electrical, roads, solid waste and water and sanitation projects to fruition. Commercial financing programs will play a key role in delivering these services over the next 15 years. This requires that risk is identified, managed and mitigated if projects are to attract funding and be successful.

Bigen Africa uses Palisade’s risk analysis software @RISK to help understand what it terms ‘demand risk’, which is a measure of several key elements including consumer demand for a service, potential growth in demand, estimation of service costs, and mitigation strategies.

 » Read the full case study
 » Read more about @RISK

Case Studies, Training, and Consulting
at Palisade Risk Conference Sydney

May 29-30, 2012 – Full Conference Programme Available
Join Aon, Lend Lease, and others

Now is the time to register for the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference in Sydney. In its seventh year and attracting more people each time, the Palisade Risk Conference series has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and software training sessions covering innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.

Learn from presentations given by professionals at Aon Global Risk Consulting, University of New South Wales, Philip Chun Consultancy, and many others.

Lunches, breaks, and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

 » Learn about the Return on Investment for your company from attending
 » View the schedule and register Only $295 – save $300

"Overall I enjoyed the conference and it was well
 worth the time to travel."
                          – Michael Russell, BlueScope Steel

Monte Carlo and Reinsurance in
National Underwriter P&C Magazine

National Underwriter P&C recently ran an interesting article by Palisade highlighting the value of Monte Carlo simulation for reinsurance decisions. Case studies using @RISK were presented, along with some specific tips to help any company facing insurable risks – not just reinsurers – plan more efficient strategies.

 » Read the full article

Case Study
Unknown Unknowns in Project Probabilistic
Cost and Schedule Risk Models
By Risk Services & Solutions, Inc

According to benchmarking data by the Independent Project Analysis (IPA) Institute, a staggering 56% of major projects fail due to budget overspending or slipping schedules. Project managers need to consider not only known risks, but also unknown risks in planning large projects. These “unknown unknowns” are a key part of project risk management. At the same time, clear and consistent recommendations on incorporating unknown unknowns into risk models have yet to be proposed.

This paper outlines a thinking process and comes up with practical recipes for handling unknown unknowns. Four dimensions of unknown unknowns are discussed: the novelty of a project, the phase of project development, the type of industry, and cognitive bias. A discussion on unknown unknowns vs. corporate risks is provided. Practical recommendations on including unknown unknowns into probabilistic cost and schedule risk models are put forward. @RISK is used to show how probabilistic analysis with Monte Carlo simulation can avoid these common pitfalls.

 » Read the full white paper

Product Spotlight
Determining the Optimal Reorder Point
and Quantity in Inventory Management

This example was excerpted from Chapter 3 of the book
RISKOptimizer for Business Applications by Roy Nersesian,
published by Palisade

The two critical decision points in inventory management are when to reorder an item and how many to order. Here we present a method whereby historical sales can be used to determine the reorder point and the order quantity to minimize stockouts and inventory holdings. Daily demand is uncertain, and, unlike a traditional analysis, is modeled using a normal distribution with a mean of 200 and a standard deviation of 70. Using RISKOptimizer, we can capture this uncertainty of demand as we perform the optimization.

This model includes a spreadsheet for determining the optimal reorder strategy, and also a comparison with traditional inventory analysis.

 » Download the description and example models
 » Learn more about RISKOptimizer for Business Applications

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis
using @RISK & the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade
   April 26, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   May 2, 2012, 11am (ET)
» Register Now
   May 24, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   June 27, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   July 3, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   July 11, 2012, 11am (ET)
» Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y
decisón con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
   April 28, 2012, 11:00am (Madrid)
» Register Now

Multi-Dimensional Project Portfolio Optimization and @RISK
Presented by Eric Torkia, Technology Partnerz Analytics Services
   April 26, 2012, 11:00am (New York)
» Register Now

Introduction to @RISK with a Risk Register Focus
Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade
   May 10, 2012, 10:00am (London)
» Register Now

A Stochastic Simulation Model for
Dairy Business Investment Decisions

Presented by Dr. Jeffrey Bewley, University of Kentucky
   May 24, 2012, 11am (ET)
» Register Now

Introductie van risico- en beslisanalyse
met @RISK en de DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade
   June 13, 2012, 11am (Amsterdam)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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