E-Focus: Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas - The Monte Carlo Resort, November 10-11 In This Issue
What’s New

» UPS Uses @RISK for
   Sustainability Study

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas Attracts Large,
   Diverse Crowd

Case Study
» Risk Modeling of a Mega
   Project Cost Estimate at
   Husky Energy

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Supply Chain Management

Upcoming Webcasts

Blog Headlines

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Sydney: 7-8 December

» Brazil
Rio de Janeiro:
  30 de nov. a 2 de dezembro
Brasilia: 7-9 de dezembro

» EMEA & India
Milan: 28-29 November
Oslo: 11-12 January

» North America
Atlanta: 6-7 December
San Francisco: 18-19 January
Ottawa: 7-8 February
Houston: 21-23 February
Orlando: 6-7 March
Washington, DC: 27-29 March

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

9-10 January, 9am-1pm ET

30-31 January, 9am-1pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

20-21 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
30 November, 9am-1pm ET


Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK» @RISK for Excel
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@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

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Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
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The DecisionTools Suite

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UPS Uses @RISK for Sustainability Study
With over 400,000 employees and 1.1 million shipments per day, UPS is one of the world's largest shipping companies. UPS regularly monitors its environmental impact by measuring its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because there is significant uncertainty around GHG monitoring, UPS turned to @RISK to most accurately estimate these amounts.

Calculations of GHG emissions are affected by a range of variable factors like secondary data, calculation methodologies, and formulas meant to describe the relationships between various parameters and emission processes.

According UPS’s 2010 Sustainability report:

“Using the GHG Protocol ‘Measurement and Estimation Uncertainty of GHG Emissions’ guidance and analyzing the collected data through Monte Carlo simulations by using the @Risk statistical analysis software at 95% confidence interval, we are able to estimate the uncertainty for our 2010 GHG inventory.”

More details about UPS’s uncertainty analysis and GHG reporting can be found in Appendix B of the 2010 Sustainability report.

 » Read the report: Sustainability at UPS 2010

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas Attracts Large, Diverse Crowd
Attracting over 150 delegates, Palisade’s 2011 Risk Conference in Las Vegas offered something for virtually everyone, regardless of industry sector. The event was held at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino on November 10th and 11th. Professionals attended from industries such as oil and gas, power generation, engineering and construction, manufacturing, and others. There were over 40 total presentations and training sessions divided into three tracks. There were sessions on managing risk in large projects, new venture forecasting, oil prospecting, renewable energy, investment portfolios, and much more. Palisade staff also delivered numerous software training sessions using the latest software techniques.

The conference featured a plenary address by author Christina Ray on the topic of Decision Making and Enterprise Risk Management. In addition, new this year, delegates took advantage of one-on-one personalized consulting sessions. Finally, the conference concluded with its first panel discussion of experts on the best practices in risk analysis.

@RISK Great conference. As a new user of @RISK,
      the conference was an eye-opener on the tool,
      the value it provides, and how to make use of it.
      Also learning more about the use of risk
      management practices was helpful. Thank you!Trial Versions

                                     - Raj Gantla, Robert Half International

 » Read more about the conference and presentations

Case Study
Risk Modeling of a Mega Project Cost Estimate at Husky Energy
Presented by Paul Gill, Husky Energy, at the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas, November 11, 2011

Mega projects by their very nature consist of smaller individual projects that integrate together to form a whole. In a similar fashion, the estimates for such mega projects also come from a multitude of diverse disciplines with differing sources and work practices.

This case study shows how a risk model for the cost estimate was built in @RISK to identify appropriate levels of contingency and management reserve. Uncertain inputs to the model were taken from a variety of sources including

  • Control Estimates
  • Systemic risk models
  • Quantitative schedule risk models
  • Risk ranging workshops
  • Various risk registers

 » See the full PowerPoint presentation

Product Spotlight
Supply Chain Management
From Chapter 8 of the book RISKOptimizer for Business Applications by Roy Nersesian, published by Palisade.

A common problem in supply chain management is the phenomenon of the bullwhip effect. This shows what arises from the traditional disjointed relationship between a manufacturer and its suppliers, and between these suppliers and their underlying component suppliers. It leads to excessive inventory levels. Closer collaboration and coordination between buyers (factories) and sellers (suppliers) can achieve considerable savings.

RISKOptimizer, available with @RISK and DecisionTools Suite Industrial editions, can be used to optimize ordering quantities in order to minimize inventory and reduce costs, given all the uncertainties involved in the various points along the supply chain.

 » Download the full chapter and example file
 » Learn more about this title and order your copy

Introduction to Risk Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by
Chris Marlow, Palisade
  November 29, 2011, 10:00am (UK)
» Register Now

  Presented by Dave Bristol, Palisade
  November 30, 2011, 10:00am (ET)
» Register Now

  Presented by Andrew Sich, Palisade
  December 1, 2011, 1:00pm (ET)
» Register Now

  Presented by Steve Hunt, Palisade
  December 2, 2011, 1:00pm (ET)
» Register Now

  Presented by Jaime Weisberg, Palisade
  December 6, 2011, 1:00pm (ET)
» Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
November 30, 2011, 10:00am (UK)
» Register Now

Use of @RISK for Quantifying Uncertainty in
Innovation Project Management

Presented by Dr. Jose A. Briones, SpyroTek Performance Solutions
December 1, 2011, 11:00am (UK)
» Register Now

Refining the Business Case for Sustainable Energy Projects Using
@RISK & PrecisionTree: A Biofuel Plant Case Study

Presented by Scott Mongeau, Biomatica
January 12, 2011, 11:00am (ET)
» Register Now

Visão geral do @RISK e @RISK for Project
Presented by Renato Limão
December 15, 2011, 10:00am (S. American EST)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Blog Headlines
Mixing Business with Biofuels
While it is accepted wisdom that the world needs to increase its focus on sustainable energy, there is still much dispute about whether initiatives of this kind are financially viable.
» Read more

Analyzing working capital and capital budgeting
at Rotman School of Management

Understanding how to use Monte Carlo simulation to account for risk in decision-making is quickly becoming a required skill for today’s business leaders, says Asher Drory, Adjunct Professor of Finance at University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management.
» Read more

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The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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