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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
Intel Corporation's Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG's products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).
“Gossamer Lightning” (see example model) is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for Gossamer required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees have been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.
The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11
Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 40 real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of the next version of software from Palisade.
Christina Ray, Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and author of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk, will deliver the plenary session on “Decision Making and Enterprise Risk Management: The Plausible vs. the Probable.”
Lunches, breaks, networking receptions, and a welcome dinner at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.
Many of these events are complimentary, and all professionals facing risk in any industry are encouraged to attend.
Here’s where you can find Palisade's complimentary Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry events in September…
More events are planned for later in the year in the UK, Ireland, and Australia.
The uncertainty of climate effects, future oil supplies, potential environmental regulations, and new technology all make today’s energy markets confused and cautious. How do investors cope? How can developers address issues?
Our paper addresses how we use @RISK to model our renewable energy projects. From expected values to “big bad outcomes,” we walk through, step by step, how we try to calm an uncertain market with statistics and common experiences. Nobody can predict the future, but we can try to learn from the past and put that to good use!
@RISK statistics functions include all standard statistics plus percentiles and targets (for example, =RiskPercentile(A10,.99) returns the 99th percentile of the simulated distribution).
@RISK statistics functions can be used the way you would use any standard Excel function. @RISK statistics functions that return a desired statistic on a simulation input distribution have the identifier Theo in the function name. For example, the function RiskTheoMean(A10) returns the mean of the probability distribution in the cell A10.
Presented by Doug Oldfield,
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
Modeling Behavior Using @RISK and PrecisionTree:
Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using the DecisionTools Suite
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions avec @RISK et DecisionTools Suite
With Earthquake Aftershocks, the Risk is Great –
Neural Networks Optimize Police Force Efficiency
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