E-Focus: @RISK Quantifies Market Feasibility for Aerospace Leader Thales In This Issue
What’s New

» Intel uses @RISK and
   PrecisionTree for Product

» Author Christina Ray at
   Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas

» Palisade Events
   Around the Globe

Case Study
» Modeling Renewable
   Energy Products

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Using Simulation
   Statistics Functions

Upcoming Webcasts

Blog Headlines

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» México City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 12-13 October
Perth: 16-17 November
Sydney: 7-9 December

» Brazil
Rio de Janeiro: 4-6 de outubro
São Paulo: 18-20 de outubro
Recife: 25-27 de outubro
Belo Horizonte:
   9-11 de novembro
São Paulo: 23-25 de novembro
Rio de Janeiro:
  30 de nov. a 2 de dezembro
Brasilia: 7-9 de dezembro

» EMEA & India
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Madrid: 5-7 October
München: 11-12 October
London: 26-28 October
Joannesburg, South Africa:
   26-28 October
Abu Dhabi:
   31 October - 2 November
Aberdeen: 16-18 November
London: 21-23 November

» Latin America
Lima, Perú: 4-6 de octubre
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre
Santiago, Chile:
   7-11 de noviembre
México, D.F.:
   21-25 de noviembre

» North America
Toronto: 20-21 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 11-13 October
Dallas: 25-27 October
Atlanta: 6-7 December

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

2-3 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

21-22 Sept., 9am-1pm ET
1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

3-4 October, 1pm-5pm ET
15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
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» 日本語版
» 中文版

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.


Intel uses @RISK and PrecisionTree
for Product Development
As presented by Andre Lowe at the
2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas

Meet Andre Lowe at the 2011 Risk Conference in Las Vegas
November 10-11

Intel Corporation's Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG's products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).

“Gossamer Lightning” (see example model) is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for Gossamer required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees have been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.

 » Download the presentation PowerPoint and Excel model  
 » Register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference

Author Christina Ray to Deliver Plenary at Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas
Program Offers over 40 sessions from Best Buy, Petrobras, Walgreens, Black and Veatch, Intel, and Many More

The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11

Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 40 real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of the next version of software from Palisade.

Christina Ray, Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and author of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk, will deliver the plenary session on “Decision Making and Enterprise Risk Management: The Plausible vs. the Probable.”

Lunches, breaks, networking receptions, and a welcome dinner at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.

 » View the conference program
 » Register for the conference
 » Book your room now at the Monte Carlo at the special rate of $96 -
   Limited rooms available

Palisade Global Events This Month
In an ongoing effort to spread best practices in risk and decision analysis across industries, Palisade continues to offer a series of risk training events and conferences around the world. Just in the last few months, over five hundred people have attended Palisade events in the UK, France, Spain, Germany, Japan, Colombia, Panama, and Argentina, and across the US and Canada. “It was one of the most interesting seminars I have ever attended,” said Dr. Katsuaki Sugiura of the University of Tokyo after Palisade’s Strategic Risk Quantification course in Tokyo on August 2.

Many of these events are complimentary, and all professionals facing risk in any industry are encouraged to attend.

Here’s where you can find Palisade's complimentary Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry events in September…

More events are planned for later in the year in the UK, Ireland, and Australia.

Case Study
Modeling Renewable Energy Products
As presented by Mark Rudd of Rudd Asset Management at the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas

Meet Mark Rudd at the 2011 Risk Conference in Las Vegas
November 10-11

The uncertainty of climate effects, future oil supplies, potential environmental regulations, and new technology all make today’s energy markets confused and cautious. How do investors cope? How can developers address issues?

Our paper addresses how we use @RISK to model our renewable energy projects. From expected values to “big bad outcomes,” we walk through, step by step, how we try to calm an uncertain market with statistics and common experiences. Nobody can predict the future, but we can try to learn from the past and put that to good use!

 » View and Download the presentation

Product Spotlight
Using Simulation Statistics Functions
@RISK statistics functions return a desired statistic on simulation results or an input distribution. For example, the function RiskMean(A10) returns the mean of the simulated distribution for the cell A10. These functions are updated real-time as a simulation is running.

@RISK statistics functions include all standard statistics plus percentiles and targets (for example, =RiskPercentile(A10,.99) returns the 99th percentile of the simulated distribution).

@RISK statistics functions can be used the way you would use any standard Excel function. @RISK statistics functions that return a desired statistic on a simulation input distribution have the identifier Theo in the function name. For example, the function RiskTheoMean(A10) returns the mean of the probability distribution in the cell A10.

 » Read more about @RISK statistics functions
 » Download an example using @RISK statistics functions

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
  October 25, 2011, 10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

  Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade
  November 29, 2011,10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade
September 21, 2011, 10:00am (UK)
, » Register Now

Modeling Behavior Using @RISK and PrecisionTree:
Why probability estimates aren’t always what they seem

Presented by Christopher Brand, Captum Capital Limited
October 6, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using the DecisionTools Suite
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade
October 19, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
October 26, 2011, 10:00am (UK)
, » Register Now

Petroleum Resource Evaluation Using @RISK
Presented by Dr. Ronald Brimhall
November 10, 2011, 11:00am ET
, » Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions avec @RISK et DecisionTools Suite
Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
November 30, 2011, 10:00am (UK),
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Blog Headlines
Facing the competition: how risk analysis can help
newly-deregulated markets to operate effectively

Monday, September 5, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
The electric power grid company, Transelectrica, turned to risk analysis with @RISK to enable it to operate as a commercial organisation and meet EU standards. Using an @RISK model enables Transelectrica to analyse the risks specific to the energy market.
» Read more

With Earthquake Aftershocks, the Risk is Great –
But May Be Easier to Predict

Wednesday, August 24, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
The use of Monte Carlo simulation and decision trees in DecisionTools Suite software has been used to cope with natural disasters – from volcanoes to hurricanes.
» Read more

Neural Networks Optimize Police Force Efficiency
Wednesday, August 24, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
In the August 16, 2011 edition of the New York Times there was an interesting article about the use of predictive analytics by police departments. Entitled “Sending the Police Before There’s a Crime,” the article explores how the Santa Cruz, California police department optimizes the use of limited resources by anticipating where crimes are more likely to occur so they can deploy police there in advance. How does it do this?
» Read more

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The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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