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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
@RISK Quantifies Market Feasibility
“@RISK combines its powerful risk analysis capability with the added benefit of being easy and intuitive to use, and applicable for almost any task. As a result it is a key strategic tool for Thales, assisting us in our process of reaching informed business-critical decisions.”
The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11
Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 25 real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The event will also include more than a dozen software workshops and training. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of the next version of software from Palisade.
Lunches, breaks, networking receptions, and a welcome dinner at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.
These events touch on effective risk management in a variety of industries. “It was one of the most interesting seminars I have ever attended,” said Dr. Katsuaki Sugiura of the University of Tokyo after Palisade’s Strategic Risk Quantification course in Tokyo on August 2.
Many of these events are complimentary, and all professionals facing risk in any industry are encouraged to attend.
Upcoming events include:
More events are planned for later in the year in the UK, Ireland, and Australia.
RISKOptimizer for Business Applications explores business problems in marketing, finance, and operations that require optimal solutions, yet that also contain uncertainty. Using RISKOptimizer, Prof. Nersesian describes how to find the best solution to problems such as reorder points and safety stock, supply chain management, personnel scheduling, and much more.
Evolver Solutions for Business addresses common business problems that require an optimal solution, yet where no linearity exists. That is, the book tackles typical problems that cannot be solved with traditional solvers such as Excel’s Solver. Loan and stock portfolios, production scheduling, location planning, route assignments, pricing models, and a host of other examples are included.
In this case study, DecisionTools Suite software is used to analyze an optimal wagering strategy for professional baseball.
Capitalizing on the experience gained through consulting with Major League Baseball, several insights into building a competition-based production function are utilized, incorporating such elements as:
Conflicts with traditional baseball philosophy and data driven analytics will be quantified (popular myths vs. fact). The starting point is first to determine the probability of winning a specific game; from which betting lines (from the market) and expected returns on investment will be calculated. Using filters and appropriate risk reward trade-offs (rectangular hyperbolas) decisions will be forthcoming. The meaning of different kinds of investments (money line, over/under and the spread) and why and when they “work” will be covered.
The models’ accuracy will be compared to the “gambling community’s” performance as well as historical economics of return on investment. Optimal (maximizing expected return on investment) subject to risk constraints incorporates the Palisade software: @RISK, StatTools, RISKOptimizer and Evolver.
Simulation statistics and graphs are placed in a template using @RISK statistics functions (such as RiskMean) or the graphing function RiskResultsGraph. When a statistics function or graphing function is located in a template sheet, the desired statistics and graphs are then generated at the end of a simulation in a copy of the template sheet when you choose the Template Sheets option in the Excel Reports dialog. The original template sheet with the @RISK functions remains intact for use in generating reports from your next simulation.
Template sheets are standard Excel sheets. They are identified to @RISK by having a name that starts with RiskTemplate_. These files can also contain any standard Excel formulas so custom calculations can be performed using simulation results.
The example file Template.XLS shown above contains a template sheet. You can review this sheet to see how to set up your own custom reports and template sheets.
Presented by Chris Marlow,
Presented by Doug Oldfield,
Use of Simulation Models in Pricing Health
Project Management Risk Modeling Methods
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
Modeling Behavior Using @RISK and PrecisionTree:
Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using the DecisionTools Suite
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
Lessons from Local Oil Industry in Cash Flow,
@RISK Featured in Reinsurance Application in the
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