E-Focus: @RISK Quantifies Market Feasibility for Aerospace Leader Thales In This Issue
What’s New

» @RISK Quantifies Market
   Feasibility for Aerospace
   Leader Thales

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas: Program
   Schedule Now Available

» Palisade Events
   Around the Globe

» Palisade Publishes
   3 New Books by Roy
   Nersesian on Business
   Risk Management

Case Study
» Investment Based
   $ports Gaming

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Customizing @RISK
   Simulation Reports using
   Excel Templates

Upcoming Webcasts

Blog Headlines

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» México City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 12-13 October
Perth: 16-17 November
Sydney: 7-9 December

» EMEA & India
London: 6-7 September
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Madrid: 5-7 October
Munich: 11-12 October
London: 25-27 October
London: 21-23 November

» Latin America
Bogotá, Colombia:
   29-31 de agosto
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
   19-21 de septiembre
Lima, Perú:
   4-6 de octubre
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre
Santiago, Chile:
   7-11 de noviembre
México, D.F.:
   21-25 de noviembre

» North America
Calgary: 31 Aug. - 1 Sept.
Denver: 13-15 September
Toronto: 20-21 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 11-13 October
Dallas: 25-27 October
Atlanta: 6-7 December

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

2-3 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

22-23 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

10-11 October, 1pm-5pm ET
15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

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The DecisionTools Suite

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@RISK Quantifies Market Feasibility
for Aerospace Leader Thales

Thales Group is a leading provider of mission-critical electronic information systems for aerospace, defense, and security markets around the world. @RISK enables Thales to calculate the competitiveness of complex markets, measure probabilities for project costs, quantify rate of return, and even account for the effects of cumulative business, thereby providing decision-makers with the most complete picture possible.

“@RISK combines its powerful risk analysis capability with the added benefit of being easy and intuitive to use, and applicable for almost any task. As a result it is a key strategic tool for Thales, assisting us in our process of reaching informed business-critical decisions.”
                              - Adam Ogilvie-Smith, Senior Consultant, Thales Group

» Read the full case study

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Program Schedule Now Available

Join Leaders from Best Buy, Walgreens, Black and
Veatch, Intel, and Many More

The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11

Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 25 real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The event will also include more than a dozen software workshops and training. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of the next version of software from Palisade.

Lunches, breaks, networking receptions, and a welcome dinner at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.

» View the conference program
» Register for the conference
» Book your room now at the Monte Carlo at the special rate of $96 -
   Limited rooms available

Learn About Risk at Palisade Events
Around the Globe

In an ongoing effort to spread best practices in risk and decision analysis, Palisade continues to offer a series of risk training events and conferences around the world. Just in the last few months, over five hundred people have attended Palisade events in the UK, France, Spain, Germany, Japan, Colombia, Panama, and Argentina, and across the US and Canada.

These events touch on effective risk management in a variety of industries. “It was one of the most interesting seminars I have ever attended,” said Dr. Katsuaki Sugiura of the University of Tokyo after Palisade’s Strategic Risk Quantification course in Tokyo on August 2.

Many of these events are complimentary, and all professionals facing risk in any industry are encouraged to attend.

Upcoming events include:

    Palisade Risk Conference, September 14-15,
    Rio de Janeiro, The Sheraton Hotel and Towers – Register Now
    Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry – September 15,
    Bangkok – Complimentary
    Strategic Risk Quantification for the Oil & Gas Industry – September 23, Jakarta – Complimentary
    Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry – September 27, Complimentary
    Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry – September 30,
    Kuala Lumpur – Complimentary

More events are planned for later in the year in the UK, Ireland, and Australia.

Palisade Publishes Three New Books by
Roy Nersesian on Business Risk Management
Roy Nersesian Books
Leading risk analysis expert and professor at Monmouth andColumbia Universities Roy Nersesian has written three practical, how-to textbooks on applying quantitativerisk analysis techniques to a widerange of business problems. All books include step-by-step examples using Excel and DecisionTools Suite software and example Excel files, enabling readers to put this expertise to work immediately. @RISK Bank Credit and Financial Analysis examines a wide range of credit and related issues faced by banks and investors. Using @RISK, RISKOptimizer, and PrecisionTree, Prof. Nersesian tackles everything from cash flow analysis, options and swaps, insurance risk, and everything in between.

RISKOptimizer for Business Applications explores business problems in marketing, finance, and operations that require optimal solutions, yet that also contain uncertainty. Using RISKOptimizer, Prof. Nersesian describes how to find the best solution to problems such as reorder points and safety stock, supply chain management, personnel scheduling, and much more.

Evolver Solutions for Business addresses common business problems that require an optimal solution, yet where no linearity exists. That is, the book tackles typical problems that cannot be solved with traditional solvers such as Excel’s Solver. Loan and stock portfolios, production scheduling, location planning, route assignments, pricing models, and a host of other examples are included.

» Download a sample chapter and example file from each book
» Read more and order online

Case Study
Investment Based $ports Gaming:
Turning the Currency of Baseball into a Million!

Presented at the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas by Clay Graham, DePaul University, November 7, 2010

In this case study, DecisionTools Suite software is used to analyze an optimal wagering strategy for professional baseball.

Capitalizing on the experience gained through consulting with Major League Baseball, several insights into building a competition-based production function are utilized, incorporating such elements as:

  • Batter pitcher matchups,
  • Home vs. Road performance inconsistencies,
  • Umpire bias,
  • Playing field influences,
  • Stochastic expectations,
  • Comparative aggregate performance.

Conflicts with traditional baseball philosophy and data driven analytics will be quantified (popular myths vs. fact). The starting point is first to determine the probability of winning a specific game; from which betting lines (from the market) and expected returns on investment will be calculated. Using filters and appropriate risk reward trade-offs (rectangular hyperbolas) decisions will be forthcoming. The meaning of different kinds of investments (money line, over/under and the spread) and why and when they “work” will be covered.

The models’ accuracy will be compared to the “gambling community’s” performance as well as historical economics of return on investment. Optimal (maximizing expected return on investment) subject to risk constraints incorporates the Palisade software: @RISK, StatTools, RISKOptimizer and Evolver.

» Download the presentation

Product Spotlight
Customizing @RISK Simulation
Reports using Excel Templates

You can create your own customized reports in Excel that include only the data, statistics, and graphs you want. Do this using template sheets.

Simulation statistics and graphs are placed in a template using @RISK statistics functions (such as RiskMean) or the graphing function RiskResultsGraph. When a statistics function or graphing function is located in a template sheet, the desired statistics and graphs are then generated at the end of a simulation in a copy of the template sheet when you choose the Template Sheets option in the Excel Reports dialog. The original template sheet with the @RISK functions remains intact for use in generating reports from your next simulation.

Template sheets are standard Excel sheets. They are identified to @RISK by having a name that starts with RiskTemplate_. These files can also contain any standard Excel formulas so custom calculations can be performed using simulation results.


The example file Template.XLS shown above contains a template sheet. You can review this sheet to see how to set up your own custom reports and template sheets.

» Download the example file to see how to set up your own reports
» Read more about reporting in Excel

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
  September 20, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
  October 25, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time,
» Register Now

  Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade
  November 29, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time,
» Register Now

Use of Simulation Models in Pricing Health
Insurance and Reinsurance Risk

Presented by Tim Robinson and David Wilson,
Windsor Strategy Partners, LLC
August 25, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Project Management Risk Modeling Methods
using The DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade
September 8, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Modeling Time Series Forecasts with @RISK
Presented by Eric Torkia, MASc, Executive Partner,
Analytics Practice, Technology Partnerz Ltd.
September 9, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade
September 21, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

Modeling Behavior Using @RISK and PrecisionTree:
Why probability estimates aren’t always what they seem

Presented by Christopher Brand,
Captum Capital Limited
October 6, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using the DecisionTools Suite
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade
October 11, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade
October 26, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Blog Headlines
Using the DecisionTools Suite for a Biofuel Plant Analysis
Thursday, August 11, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
An energy development ‘risk / reward parity’ level is growing between new petroleum exploration and sustainable energy initiatives. This case uses a biofuel plant case study as an example of how a profitable business case can be made for a sustainable energy project using techniques commonly applied in petroleum exploration and engineering initiatives.
» Read more

Lessons from Local Oil Industry in Cash Flow,
Recoverable Volume, Production Curve, and more

Wednesday, August 10, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
Most of Professor Luciano Arantes Rezende Costa’s students at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute work in the local oil industry. So, when he teaches his 20-hour course on evaluation of petroleum exploration opportunities, he has to provide hands-on lessons his students can immediately apply in their own careers.
» Read more

@RISK Featured in Reinsurance Application in the
Journal Insurance Markets and Companies

Wednesday, August 03, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
A recent issue of the journal Insurance Markets and Companies: Analyses and Actuarial Computations featured the paper “Using Simulation to Support the Reinsurance Decision of a Medical Stop-Loss Provider.” The article, by Lina S. Chan of CP Risk Solutions and Dr. Domingo Joaquin of Illinois State University, uses @RISK to illustrate how Monte Carlo simulation risk modeling can help to guide the reinsurance strategy for medical insurers by evaluating different alternatives.
» Read more

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The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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