UPenn Course Uses @RISK to Help Future Leaders Handle Uncertainty

At the Univeristy of Pennsylvania, @RISK Helps Future Leaders Handle Uncertainty

What traits make a person an effective leader?

How that person handles uncertainty has to be near the top of the list, says Keith Hornbacher, MBA, Affiliated Faculty, Organizational Dynamics, at the University of Pennsylvania.

But how do you teach a concept as hard to grasp as, well, uncertainty? In his “Managing Project Risk, Uncertainty, and the Unexpected” course, Mr. Hornbacher uses @RISK software to take graduate students through actual case studies of how organizations incorporated uncertainty into their decision-making.

“@RISK’s specialized keystrokes and basic features are quickly learned, while the simulation engine and advanced features are powerful,” Mr. Hornbacher says. “That efficiency allows more time for students to concentrate on context, data collection, heuristics, biases, results interpretation and the leadership essentials of decision-making under uncertainty.”

Mr. Hornbacher knows a thing or two about handling the unexpected under pressure.

Early in his career, he was a combat pilot and instructor in the U.S. Marine Corps. He is also the founder of Hornbacher Associates, which has provided project risk management and quantitative cost and schedule risk analysis services for organizations including the U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) and NASA.

It was in his consulting work that he first encountered @RISK in its earliest versions. His firm has used @RISK for projects as diverse and complex as cost risk analyses of multi-billion dollar, cross-country pipeline projects.

@RISK for Excel and @RISK for Project are mainstays in my firm’s analytical tool set for integrated cost and schedule risk analyses of aerospace, defense, energy, construction and structurally complex private and public sector projects,” he says.

The software has been a natural fit with leadership concentration courses since he began teaching at UPenn more than five years ago. “Collection and iteration of data needed to create integrated cost and schedule risk models helps students understand how effective leaders handle uncertainty,” he says.

» For more about Mr. Hornbacher’s course
» For more about Mr. Hornbacher’s background

@RISK @RISK quickly learned, while the
      simulation engine and advanced features
      are powerful. That efficiency allows more
      time for students to concentrate on context,
      data collection, heuristics, biases, results
      interpretation and the leadership essentials
      of decision-making under uncertainty.  Trial Versions

                                         Keith Hornbacher,
                                         University of Pennsylvania


Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2010, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Duke University
Georgetown University
Louisiana State University
McGill University
McMaster University
New Mexico Tech
North Dakota State University
Northwestern University
Oklahoma State Univ.
Penn State University
Purdue University
Rice University
Seattle University
St. Francis College
University of Manitoba
University of Maryland
University of Maryland, Baltimore County
University of Virginia
Yale University


  AGSM MBA Hong Kong Program (Hong Kong)
Carnegie Mellon University (Qatar)
ESADE (Spain)
Groupe ESC Dijon Bourgogne (France)
Iqra University (Pakistan)
London Business School (UK)
Mansoura University (Egypt)
RMIT University (Australia)
S. P. Jain Institute of Management and Research (Mumbai)
University of Adelaide (Australia)
Universidad de Medellín (Colombia)
Universidad La Salle (Mexico)
Universidad Politecnica de Tlaxcala (Mexico)
University College London (UK)
University of West Bohemia (Czech Republic)
Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000

@RISK I have always found the sales and
      technical teams at Palisade to be
      excellent in all the dealings I've had
      with them over the years.Trial Versions

                         Ian Lansdown, Administrator,
                                  Scotiabank Technology Centre,
                                  University of Manitoba

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Evaluating Stop Loss Trades
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization II by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade

Many traders advocate selling a stock if your loss exceeds, say 5%. The idea is you willl truncate your downside risk. Of course, you may also lose some winners. Let’s use the following example to explore stop loss trading.

Palisade Download the example spreadsheet and step-by-step instructions

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Introduction to Financial Models for Management and Planning
By James R. Morris and John P. Daley

This text provides graduate level instruction on the development of models for financial management and planning. By working through the problems and models in this text, readers will learn how computer based models should be structured to analyze a firm’s investment and financing. The authors emphasize modeling problems related to financial management, firm valuation, forecasting, and security pricing. Monte Carlo simulation is emphasized and access to the Monte Carlo simulation software @RISK is included with the text. A solutions manual and PowerPoint® lectures are available for instructors who adopt the text.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Evaluating Risk Management Alternatives for Indiana Crop Producers
By Ana R. Rios & George F. Patrick - Purdue University

Agricultural producers face an ever-changing landscape of prices, yields, and government policies. A broad variety of risk management strategies exist which may reduce the risks associated with farming. A number of studies have determined the benefits, costs, and possible consequences associated with the implementation of a particular strategy or combination of strategies in different geographic locations and time periods. Some of these studies have reached conflicting conclusions due in part to differences in the risk environments analyzed (e.g., Clow and Flaskerud; Coble and Knight; Collins; Nydene; and Philpot and Stokes). Recently, the types of crop insurance available have expanded, premium subsidies have increased, and the 2002 Farm Bill may have affected the risk management environment faced by producers (Eidman). Given the changes which have occurred with respect to government farm policy and risk management tools, it is not fully understood how risk management strategies may affect the level and variability of net farm revenue. This study evaluates some risk management alternatives under current conditions in three areas of Indiana to develop guidelines for corn and soybean producers.

Palisade  View the full paper

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?

The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
Textbooks using Palisade software

In This Issue

» UPenn Course Uses
  @RISK to Help Future
  Leaders Handle

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &

   Evaluating Stop Loss Trades

» Textbook of the Month
   Introduction to Financial
   Models for Management
   and Planning

» Featured White Paper
   Evaluating Risk Management
   Alternatives for Indiana
   Crop Producers

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite


Keep in Touch

PalisadeClick to chat live with
a sales representative

Risk Conferences

2011 Palisade Risk Conferences
Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» Mexico City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

2011 Palisade Roadshow
These seminars are designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions – and will also show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.
» Bangkok: 15 Sept
» Jakarta: 23 Sept
» Singapore: 27 Sept
» Kuala Lumpur: 30 Sept
» Sydney: 10 October
» Perth: 31 October
» Brisbane: 3 November


» Trade Shows
Palisade will be attending the following trade shows in the coming months.
2011 Asia Pacific Oil & Gas Conference and Exhibition
September 20th - 22nd
Jakarta Convention Centre
Jakarta, Indonesia
PMI Global Congress 2011
North America

October 22nd – October 25th
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
October 30th – November 3rd
Colorado Convention Center
Denver, CO
INFORMS Annual Meeting
November 13th – 16th
Charlotte Convention Center
Charlotte, NC
DSI - Decision Sciences Inst
November 19th – 22nd
Boston MA
58th ISI Congress 2011
August 21st - 26th

Training Seminars
Brisbane: 24-25 August
Melbourne: 12-13 October
Perth: 16-17 November
Sydney: 7-9 December

São Paulo: 15-17 de agosto
Belo Horizonte: 30 de agosto -
  1 de setembro

EMEA & India
London: 6-7 September
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Madrid: 5-7 October
Munich: 11-12 October
London: 25-27 October
London: 21-23 November

Latin America
Santa Cruz Bolivia:
   16-18 de agosto
Bogotá, Colombia:
   29-31 de agosto
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
   19-21 de septiembre
Lima, Perú: 4-6 de octubre
Madrid: 5-7 October
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre
Santiago, Chile:
   7-11 de noviembre
México, D.F.:
   21-25 de noviembre

North America
Jersey City: 16-17 August
Calgary: 31 Aug. - 1 Sept.
Denver: 13-15 September
Toronto: 20-21 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 18-20 October
Dallas: 8-9 November
Atlanta: 6-7 December

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK

2-3 November, 11am-3pm ET

10-11 August, 1pm-5pm ET
17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

21-22 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 December, 11am-3pm ET

3-4 October, 1pm-5pm ET
15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.

Project Management Risk
Modeling Methods using
the DecisionTools Suite

September 8, 2011, 2:00pm
Australia EST

Rishi Prabhakar,
» Register

Modeling Oil & Gas Risk
Problems using the
DecisionTools Suite

October 4, 2011, 2:00pm
Australia EST

Rishi Prabhakar,
» Register

Use of Simulation Models in
Pricing Health Insurance and
Reinsurance Risk

August 25, 2011, 11:00am ET
Tim Robinson and
David Wilson, Windsor
Strategy Partners, LLC
» Register

Modeling Time Series
Forecasts with @RISK

September 9, 2011,
11:00am ET

Eric Torkia, MASc Executive
Partner, Analytics Practice
Technology Partnerz Ltd
» Register

Introduction to Risk &
Decision Analysis using @RISK & The DecisionTools Suite

August 23, 2011,
10:00am GMT

Stephan Beeusaert
» Register

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
September 20, 2011,
10:00am GMT

Chris Marlow
» Register

Einführung zur Risiko-
& Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

September 21, 2011,
10:00am GMT

Stephan Beeusaert
» Register

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

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decision analysis toolkit

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