E-Focus: Palisade Opens Office in Tokyo, JapanIn This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade Opens Office
   in Tokyo, Japan

» Las Vegas Risk Conference
   Call for Presenters

» 2011 European Roadshow
» Amsterdam Risk Conference
   Sets New Record

» Blog Headlines

Case Study
» DecisionTools Suite Mitigates
   Volcano Risks in Guatemala

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Summary Graphs: Box Plots
   and Trend Charts for Ranges

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» Mexico City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

2011 Palisade Biotech & Pharma Risk Analysis Forum

Join decision-makers and practitioners from the pharmaceutical industry, biotechnology & life sciences, and academia at this exciting and informative one-day event.
» Boston: June 3, 2011

Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Perth: 11-12 May
Singapore: 24-26 May
Aukland: 30-31 May
Wellington: 2-3 June
Melbourne: 6-7 July
Sydney: 20-22 July
Brisbane: 24-25 August

» Brazil
Belo Horizonte: 11-13 de maio

» Europe
London: 24-25 May
Copenhagen: 20-21 June
Moscow: 23-24 June
London: 27-28 June
London: 2-4 August

» Latin America
Santiago, Chile: 3-5 de mayo
Panamá: 11-13 de mayo
México D.F.: 17-19 de mayo

» North America
Phoenix: 19-21 April
Miami: 3-4 May
Chicago: 17-19 May
Calgary: 7-9 June
Mount Laurel, NJ: 21-22 June
Kansas City, MO: 6-7 July
Seattle, WA: 19-21 July
Toronto: 2-3 August
Jersey City: 16-17 August

Live Web Training » Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

28-29 April, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 July, 1pm-5pm ET

12-13 May, 9am-1pm ET
10-11 August, 1pm-5pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

31 May-1 June, 11am-3pm ET

15-16 June, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
11 July, 11am-3pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

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decision analysis toolkit

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Palisade Opens Office in Tokyo, Japan
Palisade is pleased to announce the opening of a new office in Tokyo. As Japan recovers from its historic tragedies, this office will fill an important need as the country faces the great uncertainties that lie ahead. @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite have been available in Japanese since last year, and these tools provide important techniques for coping with risk.

For example, @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation has long been used in disaster response. With Monte Carlo techniques, you can examine thousands of different scenarios at once. The result of a Monte Carlo analysis tells you the probability of different events occurring — financial market collapses, disease outbreaks, power failures. Monte Carlo can also tell you the impact of these events, and allows you to determine what critical factors are driving the risks. For example, you may not be able to prevent a drop in confidence in the Nikkei, but understanding the likelihood and impact of a financial collapse can help you make plans to protect assets and hedge risks.

The new office provides sales, order fulfillment, and support in Japanese to customers throughout Japan. Invoicing and payment is done in Japanese yen, and a Palisade Japan web site - - has been established complete with product information, case studies, and tutorials, all in Japanese.

Palisade has experienced increasing demand for @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite in Japan in recent years. Manufacturing, finance, shipbuilding, utilities, and insurance are just a few industries using our software to analyze their risks. The new office represents the latest extension of Palisade’s global reach. Based in New York State, Palisade also maintains offices in Sydney, Australia, London, England, and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

» Read the press release
» Visit Palisade’s Japanese web site
» Read a white paper on the use of Monte Carlo simulation to analyze
   risks to power systems in Japan

» Read a white paper on Monte Carlo simulation of earthquake recurrence

Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Call for Presentations
The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino, November 10-11, 2011
Last year in Las Vegas, the Palisade Risk Conference set a new record for attendance. Help us make history again at this year’s conference on November 10-11 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino!

Present Your Case Study in Las Vegas
If you have an interesting application of Palisade software which you would like to present, please send a short abstract to Jami Adams, at The closing date for abstracts to be submitted is August 1, 2011. If you would like to submit an abstract but need more time, please let us know.

All presenters attend the conference and social events at no charge.

» Conference overview
» View last year’s conference schedule and presentations

2011 European Roadshow Dates
Palisade invites you to complimentary half-day events, held in your city. Join us for live demonstrations showcasing @RISK and the other products of the DecisionTools Suite. We’ll look at industry applications of Palisade tools, examining how companies and individuals benefit from Palisade solutions.

Find out why more than 90% of the Fortune 100 companies use Palisade solutions to make better decisions.

The schedule includes the dates listed below, with more to be announced soon. Contact us at for more information, or sign up at the link below.

  • Madrid 4 May 2011
  • Seville 5 May 2011
  • Glasgow 11 May 2011
  • Aberdeen 25 May 2011
  • Leeds 26 May 2011
  • Paris 6 June 2011
  • Marseille 7 June 2011
» 2011 European Roadshow

Palisade Risk Conference Amsterdam
Sets New Record

Conference Presentations
Available for Download

Attracting over 120 delegates, the Palisade Risk Conference Amsterdam was a resounding success. The event was attended by professionals from industries as diverse as oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, insurance, healthcare, engineering, and banking, and consisted of over 35 presentations and training sessions divided into three tracks. Highlights included plenary discussions by Frank Lyhne Hansen, Leader, Enterprise Risk Management at PricewaterhouseCoopers, and by Andrew Evans, Decision Analyst at Unilever. Mr. Hansen spoke about the various ways PwC uses Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques in approaching a range of business problems, and Mr. Evans presented a variety of useful ways to remove bias from decision-making.

"I am very much impressed by how much info @RISK can convey, and I would recommend it to my business university/institute. Conference was well organized. I liked it very much!"
Hongyan Helen Yu, RSM Erasmus University
»Read more and download presentations

2011 Risk Conference Series Continues in Mexico City, June 1-2
The next stop in the 2011 Palisade Conference Series will be in Mexico City, June 1-2. This all-Spanish event will include sessions from companies throughout Mexico and Latin America.
» More information and register (in Spanish)

Palisade Blog Headlines
Computational Power for Truly Long-Term Forecasts
Tuesday, April 12, 2011 by Holly Bailey
Monte Carlo simulation is often referred to as a computational space hog. But how much space a simulation hogs, of course, is a matter of how much data, how many variables, and the complexity of the statistical analysis. Climate prediction is a wonderful case in point.
» Read more

Legends of the Monte Carlo Technique
Wednesday, March 30, 2011 by Holly Bailey
A recent blog in Investment Week that mentioned the history of Monte Carlo simulation and its use in finance led me to take a harder look at what I thought I knew about how financial risk analysis was launched.
» Read more

Revenues are not the only ‘profit’ to consider
when investing in rail travel

Friday, March 18, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
The UK government has just launched its consultation on the proposed high-speed rail line between London and Birmingham, which will cut the journey time by around 50 minutes if it goes ahead. Faced with its own investment dilemma, the Slovak Rail Company (SRC) used @RISK to model potential train travel over the next 30 years.
» Read more

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Case Study
DecisionTools Suite Mitigates
Volcano Risks in Guatemala

The University of Bristol’s Environmental Risk Research Centre (BRISK) adds a new dimension to modeling volcanic risk in Guatemala by incorporating @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. Guatemala has many active volcanoes, but none are as close to large populations as the Volcán de Fuego, potentially one of the most dangerous volcanoes in Central America with a large population surrounding it. The volcano has been very active over the last few years with many small eruptions taking place every day. Recent work using Palisade’s The DecisionTools Suite however, is now enabling volcanologists to quantify the nature of one of the threats from the volcano to peoples’ lives. New work by BRISK has modeled the likelihood of a successful evacuation, using both @RISK and PrecisionTree, by inputting several variables obtained through a process of structured expert judgment.

“Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite has proved to be invaluable in the work we are doing, and potentially very useful for those living and working around Volcán de Fuego.”
-Jonathan Stone, University of Bristol

» Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Summary Graphs:
Box Plots and Trend Charts for Ranges

You can display how risk changes across a range of outputs or input cells (such as modeling how risk changes over time, for example). You can create a summary graph for an output range, or select individual inputs or outputs to compare in a summary graph. Summary graphs have two forms — Summary Trend graphs and Summary Box Plot graphs.

A Summary Trend graph is especially useful in displaying trends such as how risk changes across time. If, for example, a range of 10 output cells contained Profit in years 1 through 10 of a project, the Summary Trend graph for this range shows how your risk changed across the 10 year period. The narrower the band, the less the uncertainty about your Profit estimates. Conversely, the wider the band the greater the possible variance in Profit and the greater the risk.

A Summary Box Plot displays a box plot for each distribution selected for inclusion in the summary graph. A box plot (or box-whisker graph) shows a box for a defined inner range of a distribution; with whisker lines showing the outer limits of the distribution. An inner line in the box marks the location of the mean, median or mode of the distribution.

» Read more about Summary graphs

Teaching Decision Making in MBA Classes
Presented by Phil Rogers, Clinical Assistant Professor at the C.T. Bauer
College of Business at the University of Houston
April 27, 2011, 1:00pm ET

In this live webcast, Phil Rogers, will discuss the business modeling and decision making courses he teaches to MBA and Executive MBA candidates at the University of Houston. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
The Use of @RISK and Economic Value Added in Business Valuation
Presented by Marwaan Karame, Value Based Management Consultant –
Managing Director, Economic Value Advisors
July 13, 2011, 10:00am ET

Valuation is a critical part of business decision making, whether it’s to invest in a new technology or to acquire an entire company. Regardless of the investment, there are fundamental principles of finance and economics that determines what something is worth. In this brief introduction, we’ll explore the concepts of Economic Value Added and Free Cash Flow, as well as the key operating drivers of value creation. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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