E-Focus: Cummin Inc. uses @RISK for Six SigmaIn This Issue
What’s New

» Cummins Inc. uses
   @RISK for Six Sigma

» Palisade Risk Conference
   in Amsterdam

» Why Risk Analysis Fails
» Blog Headlines

Case Study
» Assessing Traffic and
   Revenue Studies for
   Tolled Facilities
   Using @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Format Cells with @RISK
   Inputs and Outputs

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
2011 Palisade Risk ConferencesIndustry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» Mexico City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

Regional Seminars » Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 30-31 March
Sydney: 6-8 April
Perth: 11-12 May
Aukland: 30-31 May
Wellington: 2-3 June
Melbourne: 6-7 July
Sydney: 20-22 July

» Brazil
São Paulo: 29-31 de março
Rio De Janeiro: 6-8 de abril
Belo Horizonte: 11-13 de maio

» Europe
London: 12-13 April
London: 24-25 May
Moscow: 23-24 June
London: 27-28 June

» Latin America
Buenos Aires: 21-23 de marzo
Santiago, Chile: 5-7 de abril
Lima: 11-13 de abril
Panama: 11-13 de mayo
México D.F.: 17-19 de mayo

» North America
Washington, DC: 5-7 April
Phoenix: 19-21 April
Miami: 3-5 May
Chicago: 17-19 May
Calgary: 7-9 June
Mount Laurel, NJ: 21-22 June
Kansas City, MO: 6-7 July
Seattle, WA: 19-21 July

Live Web Training » Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

28-29 April, 11am-3pm ET
28-29 July, 1pm-5pm ET

12-13 May, 11am-3pm ET
10-11 August, 1pm-5pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

31 May-1 June, 11am-3pm ET

18-19 April, 9am-1pm ET
15-16 June, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
14 April, 9am-1pm ET
11 July, 11am-3pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

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Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

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The DecisionTools Suite

Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation
or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

At Cummins Inc. @RISK is
Standard for Six Sigma

Cummins, Inc. is the world’s leading designer and manufacturer of engines and related systems. According to Cummins’ Ernest Lifferth, Director Design for Six Sigma, the company’s Six Sigma program has a lot to do with this success, and @RISK has a lot to do with the success of their Design for Six Sigma (DFSS) program. Ernest heads up one branch of the corporation’s Six Sigma program, the Design for Six Sigma initiative, which is used in new product introduction. According to him, Design for Six Sigma has realized hundreds of millions of dollars in cost savings for Cummins.

» Read the full case study

Last Chance: Join PwC, Unilever, DNV
and More at the Palisade Risk Conference
in Amsterdam on March 30

There is still time to register for Palisade’s first Risk Conference of 2011 at the historic West Indische Huis in Amsterdam. The programme includes discussions of risk and decision making from PricewaterhouseCoopers, Unilever, DNV, Captum Advisors, and many, many others. This is truly an international event, attracting participants from different countries and spanning multiple industry sectors such as energy, insurance, project management, finance and more. In addition to case studies from industry, Palisade’s own experts will provide training on @RISK, DecisionTools Suite, and the latest software techniques. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of new software in the pipeline from Palisade.

The 2011 Palisade Risk Conference series will continue in Mexico City on June 1-2, in Rio de Janeiro on September 14-15, and in Las Vegas on November 10-11.

» View the conference programme
» Register now

Why Risk Analysis Fails
by Douglas Samuelson, Analytics magazine, January/February 2011

In light of recent disasters such as the financial crisis and Hurricane Katrina, this article asks if we should “kill the quants?” That is, are risk analysis and risk management still worthwhile? The answer is yes, more than ever, and the author covers a series of common mistakes in risk management. Among the more severe errors are limiting your assumptions and underestimating probabilities.

» Read the full article

Palisade Blog Headlines
Shape Shifters
Thursday, February 24, 2011, by Holly Bailey
A recent blog for Discover magazine reports on robotics research in which the robots evolve, at least in the sense that they progressively change shape. The research by Josh Bongard, University of Vermont, tracks the metamorphosis of robot with a simple shape--in this case, the shape of a snake––to a more complex machine-animal shape––for Bongard's purposes, a dog.
» Read more

RSS Image Subscribe to the Palisade blogs.

Case Study
Assessing Traffic and Revenue Studies
for Tolled Facilities Using @RISK

Presented by Curtis Beaty of Texas Transportation Institute at the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas,
November 5, 2010

In an era where agencies are looking to invest hundreds of millions – and even billions – of dollars into a single transportation facility, the feasibility and investment-grade studies for such projects must instill a high confidence to the financial markets and the public. Texas Transportation Institute (TTI) assesses the reasonableness of toll road and managed lane traffic and revenue (T&R) studies by using simulation techniques to examine the rationality of base assumptions and study the unique and simultaneous risks associated with those variables.

T&R studies consist of several sequential data transformations that ultimately result in annual toll transaction and revenue estimates for decades into the future. Because toll road and managed lane projects can vary greatly in their complexity, TTI needed to devise a way to review their corresponding T&R studies in a consistent and direct method. To that end, TTI created the “Toll Viability Screening Tool” (TVST) using @RISK.

» Read the full abstract and download the presentation

Product Spotlight
Format Cells with @RISK Inputs and Outputs
You can easily flag any cell that contains @RISK input distribution functions or @RISK output functions using the Application Settings window of @RISK. Application Settings is located under the Utilities menu in the @RISK ribbon:

Here you can apply default cell formats to cells in your workbook where @RISK inputs and outputs are located. You can select a color for cell font, border or background.

You can also change a wide range of other default settings in @RISK using the Application Settings Dialog.

» Read more about Application Settings in @RISK

Upcoming_Webcasts Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
March 24, 2011, 10:00am GMT

This event is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
Gambling, Money Management, and Monte Carlo Simulation
Presented by Wayne Winston, Professor of Operations & Decision
Technologies, Kelley School of Business at Indiana University
March 24, 2011, 1:00pm ET

Wayne Winston will demonstrate @RISK models that apply to various casino games such as roulette, keno, poker and craps. He will also explain the money management strategy (known as the Kelly Growth Criterion) adopted by the students profiled in the movie "21." (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
Using RISKOptimizer/Evolver in
Determining Optimal Swaps for Risk Mitigation

Presented by Roy Nersesian, Center for Energy Marine Transportation and Public Policy, Columbia University
March 30, 2011, 11:00am ET

Determining optimal levels of financial derivatives to mitigate risk oftentimes involve normal or lognormal distribution along with a standard deviation. In this live webcast, Roy Nersesian proposes that simulating future prices can be done by examining historical daily or weekly price changes to obtain a histogram of absolute price changes. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
Introductie van risico- en beslisanalyse met
@RISK en e DecisionTools Suite

Präsentiert von Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade
06 april 2011 10.00am London/GMT +01:00

Deze live evenementen zijn bedoeld om een inleiding tot de probabilistische analyse te bieden en u te laten zien hoe Monte Carlo simulatie en andere analytische methodes uw dagelijkse businessanalyses kunnen verbeteren. Als u in Excel modelleert, dan kan u de Palisade software zeker helpen betere geïnformeerde beslissingen te nemen. (Es gibt keine Gebühr für diesen Webcast.)
» Jetzt registrieren
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis
using @RISK & The DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade
April 7, 2011, 10:00am London/GMT +01:00

This event is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. If you build models in Excel then Palisade solutions can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.(There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y
decisión con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presentado por Manuel Carmona, Palisade
14 de abril 2011, 10:00am London, GMT+01:00

Los seminarios en línea están planteados como una introducción al análisis probabilístico, mostrando como la simulación Monte Carlo y otras técnicas, pueden ser aplicadas en la solución de problemas en el ámbito empresarial y de negocios. Si Vd. construye actualmente modelos con Excel, las soluciones de Palisade le ayudaran a tomar mejores decisiones.(No hay carga para este webcast.)
» Regístrese ahora
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade
April 21, 2011, 10:00am London,GMT+01:00

This event is designed to provide an entry-level introduction into probabilistic analysis and will show how Monte Carlo simulation and other techniques can be applied to your everyday business analyses. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now
Teaching Decision Making in MBA Classes
Presented by Phil Rogers, Clinical Assistant Professor at the C.T. Bauer
College of Business at the University of Houston
April 27, 2011, 1:00pm ET

In this live webcast, Phil Rogers, will discuss the business modeling and decision making courses he teaches to MBA and Executive MBA candidates at the University of Houston. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now


The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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