E-Focus: Fluor Bases Global Oil and Gas Estimates on @RISK In This Issue
What’s New

» Fluor Bases Global Oil and
   Gas Estimates on @RISK

» Palisade Events in India
» Amsterdam Conference
   Programme Available

» Blogs: The Flash Crash;
   Two Shapes of Bond Risk

Case Study
» Modeling Renewable
   Energy Products

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Reporting in Excel

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
2011 Palisade Risk ConferencesIndustry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» Mexico City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

Regional Seminars » Asia-Pacific
Brisbane: 2-3 March
Melbourne: 30-31 March
Sydney: 6-8 April
Perth: 11-12 May
Aukland: 30-31 May

» Brazil
São Paulo: 29-31 de março
Rio De Janeiro: 6-8 de abril

» Europe
London: 1-3 February
Oslo: 3-4 February
Lisbon: 22-23 February
Barcelona: 28 Feb.- 1 March
London: 12-13 April
London: 24-25 May

» India
Mumbai: 27 January
Bangalore: 31 January
New Delhi: 1 Feburary
  » More information

» Latin America
Quito: 26-28 de enero
Bogotá: 2-4 de febrero
México, D.F.: 8-10 de febrero
Lima: 9-11 de marzo
Buenos Aires: 21-23 de marzo
Santiago, Chile: 5-7 de abril
Panama: 18-20 de mayo

» North America
Ottawa: 8-9 February
Houston: 22-24 February
Columbus, OH: 8-9 March
Washington, DC: 5-7 April
Phoenix: 19-21 April
Miami: 3-5 May
Chicago: 17-19 May

» South Africa
Sandton: 8-9 March
Sandton: 10-11 March

Live Web Training
» Análisis de decisión y de riesgo cuantitativo utilizando @RISK, PART I *nuevo*
14 al 15 de febrero, 11am-3pm CST

» Análisis de decisión y de riesgo cuantitativo utilizando @RISK, PART II *nuevo*
1 al 2 de marzo, 11am-3pm CST

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

27-28 Jan, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 April, 11am-3pm ET

17-18 Feb, 9am-1pm ET
12-13 May, 11am-3pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

17-18 March, 9am-1pm ET
1-2 June, 11am-3pm ET

24-25 Jan, 9am-1pm ET
11-12 April, 9am-1pm ET
30 June - 1 July, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
14 April, 9am-1pm ET
11 July, 11am-3pm ET

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Fluor Bases Global Oil and
Gas Estimates on @RISK

The cost of a refinery facility usually runs in the hundreds of millions of dollars but can go as high as $1.5 billion. Whatever the total costs, the budgeting for these enormous projects involves many complex engineering and materials considerations. To deal with the megabuck uncertainties in its estimates for clients, Fluor Corporation—the multinational engineering, construction and project management firm—has recently standardized on @RISK.

Waymon Lofton, who is in charge of global estimating for Fluor's oil and gas business, says this change has brought big improvements in the accuracy and efficiency of the global estimating process. One benefit is the improved ease and speed of the model building. Before Waymon and his colleagues settled on a standard tool, they compared all the software packages on the market and found @RISK to be “the easiest with the most capabilities.”

Finally, Waymon reports that “risk analysis within Fluor has moved up to a different level because of Palisade training on the software.”

» Read the full story

Palisade Events in India
This month, we are excited to be holding our first-ever events in India. Palisade is hosting a series of three “roadshow” style seminars on quantitative risk analysis and management. These events are provided at no charge and will educate participants on both the value of sound risk management and how to go about performing risk analysis. Decision makers are already registering from a wide array of industries.

       27th January 2011 – Mumbai
       31st January 2011 – Bangalore
       1st February 2011 – New Delhi

» Learn more and register at no charge

Palisade Risk Conference in
Amsterdam — Programme Available

Palisade is pleased to announce the first Risk Conference of 2011 at the historic West Indische Huis in Amsterdam. The programme for the conference is available online, and includes discussions of risk and decision making from PricewaterhouseCoopers, Unilever, DNV, Captum Advisors, and many, many others. This is truly an international event, attracting participants from different countries and spanning multiple industry sectors such as energy, insurance, project management, finance and more. In addition to case studies from industry, Palisade’s own experts will provide training on @RISK, DecisionTools Suite, and the latest software techniques. In addition, you’ll see sneak previews of new software in the pipeline from Palisade.

More conferences in the series will be announced soon in Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, and Las Vegas.

» View the conference programme
» Register now and save

Palisade Blog Headlines
The Flash Crash
Sunday, January 16, 2011, by Holly Bailey
Last May 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average made a rapid series of inexplicable drops, and, in fact, in one five-minute period fell more than 500 points. Then, just as inexplicably, the market recovered. The causes of the so-called Flash Crash remained mysterious until September, when the SEC issued a report on the rapid fluctuation of the market. It found that a single "large fundamental trader" had used an algorithm to aggressively hedge its market position quickly...
» Read more

Two Shapes of Bond Risk
Monday, January 10, 2011, by Holly Bailey
Baby Boomers are coming face to face with the realities of retirement, and their financial advisers are having to dig deep to come up with strategies that will calm their fears of a recurrence of the financial meltdown of 2008. In this climate, one term that comes up repeatedly is fixed income, which usually means bonds. Here, it is interesting to note that even fixed is not as certain as it sounds. ...
» Read more

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Case Study
Modeling Renewable Energy Products
As presented by Mark Rudd of Rudd Asset Management at the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas, November 5, 2010

The uncertainty of climate effects, future oil supplies, potential environmental regulations, and new technology all make today’s energy markets confused and cautious. How do investors cope? How can developers address issues?

Our paper addresses how we use @RISK to model our renewable energy projects. From expected values to “big bad outcomes,” we walk through, step by step, how we try to calm an uncertain market with statistics and common experiences. Nobody can predict the future, but we can try to learn from the past and put that to good use!

» View and download the presentation

Product Spotlight
Reporting in Excel
The @RISK — Excel Reports command selects reports to be generated on the active simulation results, or the current model definition.

A variety of different pre-built simulation reports are available directly in Excel at the end of a simulation. The Quick Report is a report on simulation results designed for printing. This report contains a single page report for each output in a simulation. The other available reports, starting with Input Results Summary , contain the same information as the equivalent report in the Results Summary Window or other Report windows.

You can also use template sheets to create your own custom simulation report. Simulation statistics and graphs are placed in a template using @RISK statistics functions (such as RiskMean) or the graphing function RiskResultsGraph When a statistics function or graphing function is located in a template sheet, the desired statistics and graphs are then generated at the end of a simulation in a copy of the template sheet when you choose the Template Sheets option in the Excel Reports dialog. The original template sheet with the @RISK functions remains intact for use in generating reports from your next simulation.

» Read more about generating @RISK reports in Excel
» View a short video demonstrating reports in Excel
» Download the example file Template.xls to see how to
   set up your own reports

What Is Our Risk If We Cut Too Deep In Our Workforce?
Presented by Sandi Claudell, CEO, MindSpring Coaching
January 20, 2011, 11:00am ET

In all businesses there is a certain demand on resources to produce a certain amount of results in a given window of time. In the discipline of “Lean” there are a few key calculations we use to determine the needed time and resources. Claudell uses @RISK's Six Sigma functions in a healthcare situation to determine how many doctors, nurses, and exam rooms would be required to keep up with the pace of incoming patients. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Análisis cuantitativo de riesgo con simulación Monte Carlo
Presentado por Dr. Javier Ordóñez, Palisade Latinoamérica
24 de enero de 2011, 11:00am CST

Claves del Webinar: Análisis Cuantitativo de Riesgos; Análisis de riesgo probabilístico - El poder de Apuestas; Mitigación y Gestión de Riesgos; Simulación de Monte Carlo para apoyar la toma de decisiones.
Los temas a tratar: Análisis de Flujo de Caja Descontado; Valor en Riesgo (VAR); Optimización de la cartera.
» Regístrese ahora

Análise Quantitativa do Risco com Simulação de Monte Carlo
A presentado por Dr. Marcos Huber Mendes, Palisade Latinoamérica
15 de fevereiro de 2011, 12:15 ES

Destaques do Webinar: Análise Quantitativa do Risco; Análise Probabilística do Risco - O Poder de Probabilidades; Mitigação e Gestão do Risco; Simulação de Monte Carlo para apoiar a Tomada de Decisão.
Tópicos a serem abordados: Análise de Fluxo de Caixa Descontado; Valor em Risco (VAR); Otimização de Portfólio.
» Registre-se agora

Better Management of Product Pricing
Presented by Sean Ritchie, Manager, Clarisant Consulting
February 17, 2011, 11:00am ET

This live webcast will explore the use of @RISK’s functionality for managing product prices. We will discuss the applications of simulation techniques to manage the impact of price changes at a macro (regional price changes) and micro level (individual bid) levels. We will discuss the challenges of acquiring accurate elasticity and demand data and how effective modeling can help to improve the quality of this data in the long term. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Gambling, Money Management, and Monte Carlo Simulation Presented by Dr. Wayne Winston, Professor of Operations & Decision Technologies, Kelley School of Business at Indiana University
March 3, 2011, 1:00pm ET

Wayne Winston will demonstrate @RISK models that apply to various casino games such as roulette, keno, poker and craps. He will also explain the money management strategy (known as the Kelly Growth Criterion) adopted by the students profiled in the movie "21." (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now


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