E-Focus: PrecisionTree Aids in Rescue of Chilean Miners In This Issue
What’s New

» PrecisionTree Aids in
   Rescue of Chilean Miners

» @RISK and DecisionTools
   Suite 5.7 Now 64-bit

» Palisade Wraps up 2010
   Global Conference Series

» Announcing the 2011 Risk
   Conference in Amsterdam

» Worldwide Roadshows:
   China, Brazil, India

» Webcasts: Managing and
   Measuring Diversification
   Effect, Risk of Cutting

» Blogs: Long Odds,
   Big Payout; On Drugs and
   Harm in the UK

Case Study
» Intel uses @RISK and
   PrecisionTree for Product

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Sensitivity Simulation
   using Multiple Simulations

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
2011 Palisade Risk ConferencesIndustry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March

Regional Seminars
» Europe
Munich: 2-3 December
Oslo: 3-4 February

» North America
Atlanta: 14-15 December
Redondo Beach: 18-19 Jan
Ottawa: 8-9 February
Houston: 22-24 February
Columbus, OH: 8-9 March
Miami: 22-24 March
Washington, DC: 5-7 April
Phoenix: 19-20 April

» Asia-Pacific
Perth: 1-2 December
Sydney: 8-10 December
Beijing: 北京研讨会将于11月29日
Shanghai: 上海研讨会将于12月02日

» India
Mumbia: 27 January
Bangalore: 31 January
New Delhi: 1 Feburary
  » More information

» Latin America
Lima, Perú:
  1 - 3 de diciembre

» Brasil
São Paulo:
  Better Decisions by the
  Numbers, » More information

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

14-15 Sept, 09.00am-
    13.00pm BST
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Decision-Making and Uncertainty for Project Managers
13 Dec, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
PrecisionTree Aids in Rescue of Chilean Miners
On August 5, 2010, a wall column in the San José mine in northern Chile collapsed, trapping 33 miners 700 meters underground. The challenge was how to rescue the miners as quickly as possible, as well as ensure that their mental and physical health was maintained while the rescue mission was planned and implemented.

During the crisis, mining expert Manuel Viera, the CEO and managing partner of engineering consultancy Metaproject, was asked by the Chilean government to advise on the best way to rescue the miners. Mr. Viera developed a new model using Palisade’s decision tree tool PrecisionTree to calculate the method that would subject them to the least risk.

Manuel Viera explains: “Palisade's PrecisionTree is an excellent tool for modeling and conceptualizing real-life problems and analyzes alternatives that are technically feasible and economically viable in an Excel format. This can be applied to complex problems that have a big impact, and was therefore ideal for a major disaster such as the trapped miners.”

» Read the full case study

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite 5.7
Now Available with Support for 64-bit Excel 2010

Palisade is pleased to announce that new version 5.7 of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite is now shipping. This exciting new version is fully compatible with both 64-bit and 32-bit versions of Excel 2010 (as well Excel 2003 and 2007). New 64-bit support greatly improves capacity and performance for larger datasets and models. Other enhancements include improved license management and availability in Chinese.

» Get your free upgrade (with maintenance)

Palisade Wraps up Global Conference Series with
Sellout Events in Las Vegas, Sydney, and Peru

2010 Palisade Risk ConferencesPalisade has just wrapped up its 2010 Risk Conference series with record-setting events around the globe. The series kicked off with the first conference in London in April, and featured similar events in Sydney, Australia on October 20-21, Las Vegas on November 4-5, and Lima, Peru on November 8-9. Each event in the series was held on a continent where Palisade has offices: Europe (with Palisade Europe in London), Australia (with Palisade Asia-Pacific in Sydney), North America (with Palisade corporate offices in New York State), and South America (with Palisade Brasil in Rio de Janeiro).

The two-day, multi-track events offered a wide range of software training and industry case-studies presented by real-world users in a variety of different industries. The series can best be summed up by comments from the attendees themselves:

“It was the most rewarding conference I've ever attended and I plan to return year after year. Conference gave the opportunity to learn how to use the software and how to apply it real world problems.”
  Chris Ix, Sr. Financial Analyst,
  NV Energy

“The conference has reinvigorated my enthusiasm for risk modeling and our company’s use of @RISK.”
  Michael Churchill, Capital Value,
  Pty Ltd

“The emphasis on participant interaction is extremely effective and valuable.”
  Red White, US Geological Survey

“(The conference has) terrific cross-discipline/industry opportunities to share ideas.”
  Allan W. Graham, MD,
  Medical Director Chemical   Dependency Treatment Service,   Kaiser Permanente

View the abstracts from the 2010 conferences:

» London      » Sydney       » Las Vegas        » Lima, Peru

Announcing the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference Amsterdam
We are pleased to start our 2011 conference series with our first event in Amsterdam, to be held March 29-30, 2011 at the historic West Indische Huis, site of the famous purchase of Manhattan.

» Learn more and register early to save £150
» We are still accepting submissions for presentations.
   Send yours to Craig Ferri at:

Learn About Risk at Complimentary Worldwide Roadshows in China, Brazil, and India
Palisade is continuing its series of ongoing free “roadshow” style events with exciting new locations. These half-day events are led by experts in the field and give participants the chance to gain insight into the benefits of quantitative risk management. @RISK and DecisionTools software are featured with real-world examples.

CHINA: DecisionTools Suite in Chinese
Kicks Off in Beijing and Shanghai

To mark the release of new @RISK and the DecisionTools 5.7 in Chinese, Palisade is hosting roadshows in Beijing on November 29, and Shanghai on December 2. These events are nearly at capacity!

» Learn more and sign up

BRAZIL: Palisade Brasil Launches Breakfast Series
This has been a huge year for Palisade in Brazil. We opened a new office in Rio de Janeiro and have seen tremendous growth. We are now happy to offer a series of breakfast events geared toward learning quantitative risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation in various industries. These will be held December 1, 2, and 8 in São Paulo.

» Learn more and register

INDIA: Palisade Announces First Roadshows
We are excited to announce our first roadshows in India. Responding to rapidly growing demand, we are eager to meet users and learn what their risk challenges they face. These events will be:
    27th January 2011 – Mumbai
    31st January 2011 – Bangalore
    1st February 2011 – New Delhi

» Learn more and register at no charge

Upcoming Webcasts
Managing and Measuring Diversification Effect
Presented by Gregory Hight, Hight Capital Management
December 16, 2010, 11:00am ET

This webcast provides background on the theoretical and practical issues about diversification and asset allocation. Once the foundation has been set, I'll provide some detail about applications of quadratic programming and discuss how we can apply Monte Carlo Simulation to the analysis of diversification effect. I will spare the audience Greek letters and will provide mostly the big picture issues and the rationale underlying the processes. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

What Is Our Risk If We Cut Too Deep In Our Workforce?
Presented by Gregory Hight, Hight Capital Management, Inc.
December 16, 2010, 11:00am ET

Tes. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Palisade Blog Headlines
Long Odds, Big Payout
Thursday, November 18, 2010 - Holly Bailey
A recent chat with Palisade customer Vertex Pharmaceuticals reinforced something I learned a few years ago when I was working with a biotechnology start-up: the development of a new drug begins with a bright idea and then enters a long, dark tunnel of uncertainty and risk...
» Read more

On Drugs and Harm in the UK
Friday, November 5, 2010 - Holly Bailey
This week the BBC's home editor, Mark Easton, reports on a new study examining the "harm" impacts of drugs in the UK, where there is ongoing debate about government drug policy and the issue of legalization. At the heart of this study is a multivariate statistical analysis that evaluates 16 measures of personal and public "harm" caused by 20 legal and illegal drugs--from heroin and Ecstasy to alcohol and khat...
» Read more

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Case Study
Intel uses @RISK and PrecisionTree for
Product Development

As presented by Andre Lowe at the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas, November 4-5, 2010

Intel Corporation's Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG's products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).

Gossamer Lightning [name masked] is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for GL required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. Monte Carlo analysis has been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.

» Download the presentation PowerPoint and Excel model

Product Spotlight
Sensitivity Simulation using Multiple Simulations

@RISK lets you see the impact of uncertain model parameters on your results, but what if some of the uncertain model parameters are under your control? In this case the value a variable will take is not random, but can be set by you. For example, you might need to choose between some possible prices you could charge, different possible raw materials you could use, or from a set of possible bids or bets. To properly analyze your model, you need to run a simulation at each possible value for the “user controlled” variables and compare the results. A Sensitivity Simulation in @RISK allows you to quickly and easily do this — offering a powerful analysis technique for selecting between available alternatives.

The key to a Sensitivity Simulation is the repetitive simulation of the same model while making selected changes to the model, each simulation. In @RISK any number of simulations can be included in a single Sensitivity Simulation using the SIMTABLE function.

» Read more about how to perform a Sensitivity Simulation
» Download an example model demonstrating a Sensitivity Simulation

The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis

Palisade is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


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