E-Focus: NYC uses @RISK to Prepare for Pandemics In This Issue
What’s New

» New York City Uses @RISK
   to Prepare for Pandemics

» 2010 Risk Conference
» @RISK Reviewed in
   Six Sigma IQ:
   “Extremely Fast”

» Palisade Quoted in
   Chartered Institute for IT:
   “The Opportunity for
   Risk Improvement is Now“

» Webcast: Using Simulation
   Techniques in Litigation

» Webcast: Managing and
   Measuring Diversification

» Blog: The Great Moderation
   and Tail Risk

» Blog: Taking the guesswork
   out of water pipe
   replacement, using risk
   modeling software

Case Study
» Calculation of Construction
   Costs for Building
   Projects using @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» @RISK Library

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Computer Automation
» Consumer Purchasing
» Health Care

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
2010 Palisade Risk ConferencesAttracting over 125 delegates, the April event in London was a big success. We look for-ward to exciting presentations at the next three conferences, scheduled around the world.
» Sydney: 20-21 Oct
» Las Vegas: 4-5 Nov
» Lima, Perú: 9-10 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Europe
London: 5-7 Oct
Madrid: 26-28 Oct
  (en español)
London: 16-17 Nov
Munich: 30 Nov-2 Dec

» North America
Boston: 14-15 Oct
Trinidad & Tobago: 14-15 Oct
Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
Las Vegas Conference:
   4-5 Nov
Atlanta: 13-14 Dec
Redondo Beach: 18-19 Jan

» Asia-Pacific
Sydney Conference:
  20-21 October
Melbourne: 10-11 November
Perth: 1-2 December
Sydney: 8-10 December

» Latin America
Trinidad and Tobago:
  14-15 October
Monterrey, México:
  19 - 21 de octubre
Lima, Perú, Conferencia:
   9-10 de noviembre
Medellín, Colombia:
  17 - 19 de noviembre
Lima, Perú:
  1 - 3 de diciembre

» Brasil
Rio de Janeiro:
   20-22 de outubro
   9-11 de novembro (Project)
São Paulo:
    21-23 de setembro
    (@RISK for Project)
    26-28 de outubro (Project)
    23-25 de novembro

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

14-15 Sept, 09.00am-
    13.00pm BST
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Decision-Making and Uncertainty for Project Managers
13 Dec, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
New York City Uses @RISK
to Prepare for Pandemics

The New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene (NYC DOHMH) is one of the world's oldest and largest public health agencies, with an annual budget of $1.6 billion and more than 6,000 staff. Recently its Health Emergency Preparedness Program, in collaboration with the Greater New York Hospital Association (GNYHA), was awarded funds by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to develop new strategies to mitigate a severe influenza pandemic should one occur. A key objective was to understand how essential healthcare services and their delivery would be affected.

Interdisciplinary Solutions executed the quantitative side of this year-long public health project using @RISK and its Panálysis model which projects healthcare demands during a pandemic to include critical product requirements and staffing needs. This epidemiologic model integrates Palisade’s risk and decision analysis software @RISK and RISKOptimizer in order to account for uncertainty. @RISK was used to assess nursing capacity, and RISKOptimizer analyzed possible resource shortages.

This case was originally presented at the 2009 Palisade Risk Conference.

» Read the full case study

2010 VEGAS Palisade Risk Conference
Schedule Now Available –
Join Leaders from Intel, Aerojet, DNV,
AECOM, Petrobras, and Many More

The schedule for Palisade’s 2010 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications, and Training in Las Vegas is now available! The event will be held November 4-5, 2010 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino on the Vegas Strip. Every year the Palisade conference has grown in attendance and scope, and we are building on that success with an even bigger program filled with real-world case studies, software training, and model building. There will be something for everyone at the Palisade Conference, with sessions on managing risk in energy, finance, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, project management, the environment, transportation, and much more. The upcoming 5.7 versions of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite software will be featured.

This is one of a global series of Palisade Risk Conferences taking place in London, Sydney, Lima, and Las Vegas in 2010.

» Register today
» View the conference schedule


@RISK Reviewed in Six Sigma IQ:
“Extremely Fast”

Six Sigma and Process Excellence IQ recently reviewed @RISK 5.5.1 for Six Sigma applications. Excerpts from the review appear here:

“@RISK is a risk analysis tool that is particularly easy to use. …[It has] extremely fast calculation times, parallel use of multiple processors, dynamic output charts, regression scatter plots, shared function libraries, extended product range and so on.”

“@RISK and Six Sigma are excellent bedfellows, providing the means to dynamically analyze both starting data and the ongoing improvements being made to the process so as to provide even more insight to the true causes of variability.”

» Read the full review


Palisade Quoted in Chartered Institute for IT:
“The Opportunity for Risk Improvement is Now”

Palisade Europe’s Managing Director Craig Ferri spoke to the Chartered Institute for IT regarding approaching risk in today’s environment. Ferri argues that the heightening emphasis on risk and on preventing another economic meltdown makes now the perfect – and likely fleeting – time to implement significant structural change in how we approach, deal with, and mitigate risk.

Any new approaches – involving models, tools, staff, and ways of thinking – must not be limited to the financial sector. Regardless of business sector, the disciplines of QRM (quantitative risk management) and DMUU (decision making under uncertainty) must be approached with new attitudes and new commitment.

» Read the full article

Upcoming Webcasts
Using Simulation Techniques in Litigation
Presented by Mike Pellegrino, President, Pellegrino & Associates
October 7, 2010, 11:00am ET

Join us to explore the use of @RISK functionality for intellectual property valuations in litigation. We will discuss the basic applications of simulation techniques to create defensible intellectual property valuations. We will then discuss advantages of using simulation techniques in a litigation form, common attack points from opposing counsel, and how to defend against such attacks. Attendees should have comfort with basic @RISK functionality, basic asset valuation theory, and basic understanding of intellectual properties such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Managing and Measuring Diversification Effect
Presented by Gregory Hight, Hight Capital Management, Inc.
December 16, 2010, 11:00am ET

This webcast provides background on the theoretical and practical issues about diversification and asset allocation. Once the foundation has been set, I'll provide some detail about applications of quadratic programming and discuss how we can apply Monte Carlo simulation to the analysis of diversification effect. Hight will spare the audience Greek letters and will provide mostly the big picture issues and the rationale underlying the processes. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Palisade Blog Headlines
The Great Moderation and Tail Risk
Tuesday, September 21, 2010 - Holly Bailey
The so-called Great Moderation, the economic period that began in the late 1980s and ended with the financial crisis of 2007, was characterized by less volatility and more stability and predictability in the financial markets. I recently saw commentary that identified one of the causes of the economy's' plunge from moderation to recession as "Monte Carlo simulation" and the projections it produced...
» Read more

Taking the guesswork out of water pipe replacement,
using risk modeling software

Thursday, September 16, 2010 - DMUU Training Team
Bournemouth & West Hampshire Water (BWHW) provides clean drinking water to around half a million people in an area in the south-west of the UK spanning over 1000 square kilometres. This amounts to an average of about 150 million litres of drinking water every day, through nearly 3000 kilometres of water mains.
» Read more

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Case Study
Calculation of Construction Costs for
Building Projects using @RISK

Presented by Dr Christian Hofstadler, Graz University of Technology, at the Palisade Risk Conference in London, April 15, 2010

Construction time is of crucial importance when it comes to utilizing the production factors in an effective and efficient way. Construction periods that are too short usually result in higher cost, poorer quality and a larger number of disputes. This presentation sets out to demonstrate the calculation of construction time and cost whilst considering key construction management parameters. Beyond a simple, deterministic method, other options for calculation are shown that rely on probability using Monte Carlo simulation in @RISK for Excel. The approaches described to determine construction time and cost are illustrated by a high-rise building project example.

» Download the presentation

Product Spotlight
@RISK Library

Did you know the @RISK Library allows you to store specific, customized probability distribution functions for use by other @RISK users? You can also store simulation results for later auditing, and for use as inputs in subsequent simulations. You can use the Library just for yourself, or on a server for a group of @RISK users. The @RISK Library helps ensure consistency of inputs and common modeling practices.

» Quick video tour of the @RISK Library
» More information about the @RISK Library

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Computer Automation
New Supercomputer 'Sees' Well Enough to Drive a Car Someday
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools
Source:, September 15, 2010

Engineers from Yale University have developed a supercomputer that uses neural network technology to mimic the mammalian visual system.

Consumer Purchasing
What Car Should You Buy?
Technique: Decision trees   » see PrecisionTree
Source: AltTransport, September 13, 2010

In the U.K., car shoppers can use a new decision tree application to sort out the increasing number of energy efficiency choices and settle on the model that will work best for them.

Health Care
Breakthrough in Thin-Film Solar Cells
Technique: Monte Carlo simulation   » see @RISK
Source: The Future of Things, September 26, 2010

Scientists from Johannes Guternberg University Mainz used Monte Carlo simulation to test the potential of a number of ways to improve the performance of thin-film solar cells.


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