E-Focus: Why Risk Managers Need a Higher Profile In This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade in Strategic Risk:
"Why Risk Managers Need
   a Higher Profile"

» Palisade Sponsors Society
   of Decision Professionals

» 2010 Risk Conference
» Webcast: Use of the Suite
   in Biotechnology Project and
   Portfolio Decision Making

» Webcast: Using Simulation
   Techniques in Litigation

» Blog: Is @RISK a fore-
   casting tool or a decision-
   making tool?

» Blog: Rating the Polls

Case Study
» Cost Risk Analysis
   and Estimation using
   @RISK and Palisade
   Custom Development

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Customized Solutions using
   @RISK and VBA for Excel

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» First Robot with
   'Emotions' Unveiled

» Climate Change
» Health Care

In This Issue
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Regional Seminars
2010 Palisade Risk ConferencesAttracting over 125 delegates, the April event in London was a big success. We look for-ward to exciting presentations at the next three conferences, scheduled around the world.
» Sydney: 20-21 Oct
» Las Vegas: 4-5 Nov
» Lima, Perú: 9-10 Nov

Regional Seminars
» Europe
London: 7-8 Sept
Frankfurt: 20 Sept
   (auf Deutsch)
Zurich: 21-23 Sept
London: 5-7 Oct
Madrid: 26-28 Oct
  (en español)
London: 16-17 Nov
Munich: 30 Nov-2 Dec

» North America
Denver: 1-3 Sept
Montreal: 28-29 Sept
Boston: 14-15 Oct
Trinidad & Tobago: 14-15 Oct
Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
Las Vegas Conference:
   4-5 Nov
Richmond: 16-17 Nov
Redondo Beach: 1-2 Dec
Atlanta: 13-14 Dec

» Asia-Pacific
Sydney Conference:
  20-21 October
Melbourne: 10-11 November
Perth: 1-2 December
Sydney: 8-10 December

» Latin America
Santiago, Chile: 29 de
   septiembre - 1 de octubre
Trinidad and Tobago:
  14-15 October
Monterrey, México:
  19 - 21 de octubre
Lima, Perú, Conferencia:
   9-10 de noviembre
Medellín, Colombia:
  17 - 19 de noviembre
Lima, Perú:
  1 - 3 de diciembre

» Brasil
Rio de Janeiro:
   25-27 de agosto (Project)
   20-22 de outubro
   9-11 de novembro (Project)
São Paulo:
    21-23 de setembro
      (@RISK for Project)
    28-30 de setembro
    26-28 de outubro (Project)
    23-25 de novembro

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

9-10 Sept, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

14-15 Sept, 09.00am-
    13.00pm BST
23-24 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Decision-Making and Uncertainty for Project Managers
28 Sept, 09.00am-
   13.00pm BST

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
Palisade in Strategic Risk:
“Why Risk Managers Need a Higher Profile”

In the July 20, 2010 issue of Strategic Risk magazine, Palisade’s EMEA Managing Director Craig Ferri writes that risk managers have a unique opportunity to make their voices heard and their practices adopted. Ferri notes that, in the UK, the Bank of England has been granted sweeping powers to prevent another financial crisis. Traditionally, traders have seen risk managers as overcautious and not contributing to earning money for banks. However, risk managers are now being called upon to prevent another disaster. Through better risk analysis tools, better data, and better communication, risk managers can rise to this challenge.

» Read the full Strategic Risk article (PDF)
» Learn about @RISK, the leading risk analysis tool
Visit the Strategic Risk web site


Palisade Sponsors
Society of Decision Professionals

Palisade is proud to announce its sponsorship of the new Society of Decision Professionals (SDP). The mission of the SDP is to foster collaboration, continual learning and networking to bring clarity and insight into the decision-making process. A key aim is to promote the role of the decision professional within organizations as someone who can provide guidance to those responsible for making important and complex decisions – as a trusted advisor rather than simply a data-crunching analyst.

A leader in its field, Palisade has had strong relationships with some of the founding members of the SDP for many years, including Unilever, Chevron, and others. Its sponsor status will see it provide input on various industry issues and advise on topics that will be of value for the SDP’s education programs.

Carl Spetzler, a fellow and board member at the Society for Decision Professionals, comments: “We are pleased to have Palisade, one of the premier suppliers of software tools to decision professionals, as a sponsor. The Society benefits the Palisade user groups by creating greater value for their customers, the decision makers. The members of the society are always interested in the best software tools and services that organizations such as Palisade provide.”

» Read the full press release
Visit the Society of Decision Professionals web site


2010 VEGAS Palisade Risk Conference
Schedule Now Available –
Join Leaders from Intel, Aerojet, DNV,
AECOM, Petrobras, and Many More

The schedule for Palisade’s 2010 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications, and Training in Las Vegas is now available! The event will be held November 4-5, 2010 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino on the Vegas Strip. Every year the Palisade conference has grown in attendance and scope, and we are building on that success with an even bigger program filled with real-world case studies, software training, and model building. There will be something for everyone at the Palisade Conference, with sessions on managing risk in energy, finance, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, project management, the environment, transportation, and much more. The upcoming 5.7 versions of @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite software will be featured.

This is one of a global series of Palisade Risk Conferences taking place in London, Sydney, Lima, and Las Vegas in 2010.

» Register today
» View the conference schedule

2010 SYDNEY Palisade Risk Conference
Following the resounding success of our last Palisade Risk Conference in Sydney, which attracted over 60 attendees from industry, academia and government, Palisade is pleased to announce the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference which will take place on 20-21 October 2010. The location will be at The Radisson Plaza Hotel Sydney. We have attracted a number of outstanding presentations in past events and look forward to bringing more interesting presentations this year surrounding various applications of our modelling and decision support tools.

This is one of a global series of Palisade Risk Conferences taking place in London, Sydney, Lima, and Las Vegas in 2010.

» Register today
» Call for Papers: Contact Mark Meurisse, Managing Director, at if you are interested in presenting

Upcoming Webcasts
The Use of the DecisionTools Suite in
Biotechnology Project and Portfolio Decision Making

Presented by Svetlana A. Sigalova, Vertex Pharmaceuticals
September 2, 2010, 11:00am ET

Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. is a global biotechnology company based out of Cambridge, MA. Given the uncertainty of outcomes in the biotech industry, consideration of variability is an inherent part of the decision process. Consideration of variability allows a decision maker to bring in their own risk tolerance into the decision. Vertex’s strategy and analytics group within the corporate finance division seeks to provide the senior management with dynamic revenue and profit forecasting methodology that helps to identify types of drugs that should be developed given a finite amount of cash and resources. Vertex’s team uses the DecisonTools Suite to establish the average outcome, the variability of outcomes and to pressure-test risk and uncertainty of a particular scenario throughout the decision process. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Using Simulation Techniques in Litigation
Presented by Mike Pellegrino, President, Pellegrino & Associates
October 7, 2010, 11:00am ET

Join us to explore the use of @RISK functionality for intellectual property valuations in litigation. We will discuss the basic applications of simulation techniques to create defensible intellectual property valuations. We will then discuss advantages of using simulation techniques in a litigation form, common attack points from opposing counsel, and how to defend against such attacks. Attendees should have comfort with basic @RISK functionality, basic asset valuation theory, and basic understanding of intellectual properties such as patents, copyrights, trademarks, and trade secrets. (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)
» Register now

Palisade Blog Headlines
Is @RISK a forecasting tool or a decision-making tool?
Thursday, August 19, 2010 - Ian Wallace, ACMA
Most people understand that @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation are designed to be an improvement on single-point estimates. In practice, however, I often see people using @RISK as a forecasting tool to get yet another single-point estimate, such as the 90th percentile, without putting it into the context of the potential range of outcomes. This is probably the difference between a forecasting and a decision-making...
» Read more

Rating the polls
Monday, August 23, 2010 - Holly Bailey
With the New York State primaries coming up September 14 and the general election on November 2, I predict that as soon as summer turns the corner into September, we'll start hearing lots and lots about polls that predict election outcomes. To find out if there was any early discussion of polls, polling, and outcomes, I returned to my favorite election forecast site from the 2008 presidential elections, FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right.
» Read more

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Case Study
Cost Risk Analysis and Estimation using
@RISK and Palisade Custom Development

@RISK can be used for cost risk analysis and estimation, and can be automated so that any estimator can easily use @RISK for cost analysis without having to learn @RISK in depth. Palisade Custom Development created a cost estimation application for a client that prompts the user for a three-point estimate for each cost item in the project as a way to recognize uncertainty in these cost elements. A risk register is then created using a simply colored grid interface. Next, because in real life costs are seldom independent of each other, the user is able to set up correlations between related cost elements. Finally, the user can define external risk events that will affect the total cost of the project. After entering this information, the application runs an @RISK simulation and presents results in tables and graphs. The results can be used to identify risk drivers and map out mitigation strategies.

» View a presentation of this case study application
» Learn more about Palisade Custom Development

Product Spotlight
Customized Solutions using
@RISK and VBA for Excel

Webcast from June 23, 2010

This webcast explores the use of VBA for Excel to control @RISK functionality to simplify the process of risk analysis for resource-strapped businesses. We explain the advantages (and limitations) of macro control for modeling and running simulations.

Simple examples are worked through to show the XDK (@RISK’s automation library) in action, from generic examples to a cost estimation model. This addresses elements of model construction, various simulation settings and finally reporting. The emphasis is on demonstrating various possibilities the XDK lends to the user rather than an in-depth VBA for Excel coding session.

» View the webcast
» Learn about Palisade Custom Solutions

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
Artificial Intelligence
First Robot with 'Emotions' Unveiled
Technique: Neural networks   » see NeuralTools
Source:, August 9, 2010

European researchers have announced the development of Nao, the robot that can use neural networks to express emotion and read people’s expressions of their own emotions.

Climate Change
Sustainable Biochar to Mitigate Global Climate Change
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: Nature Communications, August 10, 2010

An international team of scientists used Monte Carlo simulation to assess the potential of “biochar,” a rich form of carbon, to absorb carbon dioxide and thus offset its effect on global climate.

Health Care
Early ACL Surgery in Kids Would Save $30 Million
Technique: Decision trees   » see DecisionTools Suite
Source: Physical Therapy Products, July 29, 2010

Making use of decision tree technology and statistical modeling, a new cost-benefit study of knee surgery for children and adolescents predicts a $30 million savings in hospital charges if physicians and patients opted early for surgery rather than delay it.


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