E-Focus: @RISK Predicts March Madness Odds In This Issue
What’s New

» Palisade Growth Picks Up
   in the Middle East

» Last chance to register for
   London Risk Conference

» Webcast: Successful
   Value Creation in
   Management Science

» Making optimal choices,
   or just making choices?

» Quantitative risk assessment
   under utilised for
   infrastructure projects

Case Studies
» Cranfield University uses
   @RISK for Product Reliability
   in Sub-Sea Oil & Gas

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Contingency Calculation
   in Cost Risk Analysis

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Agriculture
» Packaging
» Pension Funds

In This Issue
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2010 Palisade Risk Conference LondonThe first 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will take place in the Institute of Directors in London’s Pall Mall, and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis.
LONDON 14-15 April 2010
» View the schedule
» Register now

2010 Health Risk Analysis Forum
One-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector.
SAN DIEGO 31 March 2010
» View the schedule
» Register Now

Regional Seminars
» Australia
Sydney: 7-9 April
Brisbane: 12-13 May
Sydney: 26-28 May
Perth: 2-3 June
Melbourne: 7-8 July
Brisbane: 20-21 October
Melbourne: 10-11 November
Perth: 1-2 December
Sydney: 8-10 December

» Europe
London: 14-15 April
  Risk Conference at IoD
London: 20-22 April
London: 8 June
Brussels: 9-11 June
London: 14-15 June

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

3-4 May, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 June, 11am-3pm ET
9-10 Sept, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

24-25 May, 9am-1pm ET
19-20 July, 11am-3pm ET
20-21 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

5-6 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
14-15 June, 1-5pm ET
10-11 August, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

26-27 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
21-22 June, 1-5pm ET
23-24 August, 11am-3pm ET
19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
31 Mar, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
Palisade Growth Picks Up in the Middle East

Palisade have recently been focusing on developing the customer base in the Middle East, with a growing list of oil and gas companies in particular now using Palisade tools. However, although hydrocarbons may dominate the economies of the area, there are also an increasing number of other companies using the products in industries ranging from finance, construction and government through to banking, insurance and healthcare.

One of these is the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (ADWEC), whose job it is to guarantee the supply and security of water and electricity across the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, part of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi relies almost completely on desalinated saltwater for its potable water requirements, and because the desalination process is challenging in terms of operation, costs, and environmental impact, it is important that ADWEC's forecasts for water and electricity demand are as accurate as possible. As a result of using @RISK to assist with its forecasting, planning and management strategies, ADWEC has been able to consistently meet with almost complete accuracy and a high degree of confidence the Abu Dhabi Emirate water demand forecasts.

» Read the complete case study

London Palisade Risk Conference: New Approaches to Risk & Decision Analysis
Institute of Directors, London, 14-15 April 2010
Unilever Keynote Featured - Last Chance to Register

Following on from the resounding success of the last Palisade Risk Conference in London, which attracted over 110 attendees from industry and academia, the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will be a two day forum covering a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis. The event features a keynote address from Unilever, real-world case studies from industry experts, best practices in risk and decision analysis, software training, and sneak previews of new software in the pipeline. It’s also an excellent opportunity to network with other professionals and find out how they’re using Palisade solutions to make better decisions.

» View the full schedule
Register today

Upcoming Webcast
"Targeted Analyses and Compelling Communication: A Formula for Successful Value Creation in Management Science"
Presented by Michael A. Kubica, Senior Scientist,
Econometric Modeling, Applied Quantitative Sciences
May 6, 2010, 11:00am ET

The value of quantitative science projects too often remains unrealized for would-be consumers. Despite flawless analyses, sophisticated reports and dazzling presentations, the message goes unheeded by those who could most benefit: If only they understood how to operationalize the results. The clarity with which quantitative scientists view the practical application of results is often paralleled only by their inability to generate that same clarity in their customers. The result is that good management science is at best ignored and worst, misunderstood (and misapplied). This free live webcast describes steps we as quantitative scientists can take to foster understanding, generate novel insights and stimulate actionable results with our clients, as well as demonstrates some of the tools we use - including @RISK.
» Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

Palisade Blog Headlines
Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices?
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - Rishi Prabhakar
Many clients have adopted Monte Carlo simulation techniques (via @RISK for Excel) into the day-to-day running of their businesses. By doing so they now have a good understanding of the exposure they are facing be it in project cost estimation, discounted cash flow analysis or, well, anything really. But this is only one facet of risk and decision assessment, specifically dealing with the descriptive statistical output from a simulation. What of the decision evaluation component? Why aren’t more of my customers analysing the decisions they make, or better yet actually optimising them? I have a few ideas why.
» Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 1
» Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 2

Quantitative risk assessment under utilised for
infrastructure projects

Friday, March 12, 2010 - Craig Ferri
Why is it that most of the high profile projects managed by the government in the UK all ultimately become beset by problems? A number of projects jump to mind – the Millennium Dome, Wembley Stadium and currently the NHS IT. One wonders if the government undertakes detailed quantitative project risk analysis for its infrastructure initiatives?
» Read more

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Case Study
Cranfield University uses @RISK for
Product Reliability in Sub-Sea Oil & Gas Projects

Cranfield University is a wholly postgraduate institution with a worldwide reputation for excellence and expertise in engineering, environment, manufacturing, and other fields.

A recent project focusing on sub-sea equipment for the oil and gas industry at Cranfield provided evidence to business managers that a better return on investment (ROI) is achieved through enhancing a product's longterm reliability as a result of spending time and resources early in the product design lifecycle.

Cranfield's School of Applied Sciences uses @RISK software to calculate the likelihood of sub-sea oil and gas production equipment failing, and the overall cost throughout the project life cycle, should it do so. The failure of any product has huge ramifications. @RISK enables Cranfield to integrate the critical elements of the two core risk analysis techniques commonly used in the engineering field, RAM (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) and Lifecycle Costing analysis (LCC).

» Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Contingency Calculation in Cost Risk Analysis

When performing a cost risk analysis study, one of the key results is the amount of extra monetary resources that is to be added to the project cost baseline to guarantee that the budget is not exceeded at a certain confidence level. Good project risk management strategies must take this into account. After defining the uncertain variables and risk events that affect the cost performance of the project, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK to find out what the range of the total project cost is. Simulation results can help us to explain the risk exposure that we have in the total cost of the project. The most popular statistics are the mean (average cost), the most likely cost, and the 10th and 90th percentiles.

download the modelRead the full tip to see how to determine the proper contingency to allocate.

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
New Tool to Compare Profitability of Crops
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools
Source: The Prairie Star, February 27, 2010

The Montana Department of Agriculture has developed decision tools to help farmers evaluate opportunities in alternative crops and compare the returns of different cropping plans.

Finding Out What's in the Box
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: Control Engineering UK, March 12, 2010

A new technique in neural network technology trains on visual images to assure accuracy in package labeling.

Pension Funds
True Extent of Underfunding in Public Pensions
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: American Enterprise Institute, February 26, 2010

Analysts at the American Enterprise Institute offer a method using Monte Carlo simulation and projected market returns to predict the long-termadequacy of a public pension fund.


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