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The first 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will take place in the Institute of Directors in London’s Pall Mall, and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis.
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
One of these is the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (ADWEC), whose job it is to guarantee the supply and security of water and electricity across the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, part of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi relies almost completely on desalinated saltwater for its potable water requirements, and because the desalination process is challenging in terms of operation, costs, and environmental impact, it is important that ADWEC's forecasts for water and electricity demand are as accurate as possible. As a result of using @RISK to assist with its forecasting, planning and management strategies, ADWEC has been able to consistently meet with almost complete accuracy and a high degree of confidence the Abu Dhabi Emirate water demand forecasts.
Following on from the resounding success of the last Palisade Risk Conference in London, which attracted over 110 attendees from industry and academia, the 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will be a two day forum covering a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis. The event features a keynote address from Unilever, real-world case studies from industry experts, best practices in risk and decision analysis, software training, and sneak previews of new software in the pipeline. It’s also an excellent opportunity to network with other professionals and find out how they’re using Palisade solutions to make better decisions.
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Quantitative risk assessment under utilised for
Cranfield University is a wholly postgraduate institution with a worldwide reputation for excellence and expertise in engineering, environment, manufacturing, and other fields.
A recent project focusing on sub-sea equipment for the oil and gas industry at Cranfield provided evidence to business managers that a better return on investment (ROI) is achieved through enhancing a product's longterm reliability as a result of spending time and resources early in the product design lifecycle.
Cranfield's School of Applied Sciences uses @RISK software to calculate the likelihood of sub-sea oil and gas production equipment failing, and the overall cost throughout the project life cycle, should it do so. The failure of any product has huge ramifications. @RISK enables Cranfield to integrate the critical elements of the two core risk analysis techniques commonly used in the engineering field, RAM (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) and Lifecycle Costing analysis (LCC).
When performing a cost risk analysis study, one of the key results is the amount of extra monetary resources that is to be added to the project cost baseline to guarantee that the budget is not exceeded at a certain confidence level. Good project risk management strategies must take this into account. After defining the uncertain variables and risk events that affect the cost performance of the project, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK to find out what the range of the total project cost is. Simulation results can help us to explain the risk exposure that we have in the total cost of the project. The most popular statistics are the mean (average cost), the most likely cost, and the 10th and 90th percentiles.
The Montana Department of Agriculture has developed decision tools to help farmers evaluate opportunities in alternative crops and compare the returns of different cropping plans.
A new technique in neural network technology trains on visual images to assure accuracy in package labeling.
Analysts at the American Enterprise Institute offer a method using Monte Carlo simulation and projected market returns to predict the long-termadequacy of a public pension fund.
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