E-Focus: @RISK Simulates March Madness In This Issue
What’s New

» @RISK Simulates NCAA
» Last chance to register for
   Healthcare Forum

» Webcast: Successful
   Value Creation in
   Management Science

» Making optimal choices,
   or just making choices?

» Quantitative risk assessment
   under utilised for
   infrastructure projects

Case Studies
» ADWEC uses @RISK to
   forecast water demand in
   Abu Dhabi

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Contingency Calculation
   in Cost Risk Analysis

Palisade Analytics
in the Press

» Agriculture
» Packaging
» Pension Funds

In This Issue
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2010 Palisade Risk Conference LondonThe first 2010 Palisade Risk Conference will take place in the Institute of Directors in London’s Pall Mall, and will cover a wide variety of innovative approaches to risk and decision analysis.
LONDON 14-15 April 2010
» View the schedule
» Register now

2010 Health Risk Analysis Forum
One-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector.
SAN DIEGO 31 March 2010
» View the schedule
» Register Now

Regional Seminars
» North America
San Diego: Health Risk    Analysis Forum, 31 Mar
Washington DC: 6-8 April
Bermuda: 11-12 May
Phoenix: 18-19 May
Calgary, AB: 1-3 June
Philadelphia: 29-30 June
Memphis: 7-8 July
St. Paul: 13-15 July
Ithaca, NY: 27-28 July
Seattle: 3-5 August
Toronto: 17-18 August
Denver: 1-3 Sept
Charlotte, NC: 14-15 Sept
Montreal: 28-29 Sept
Boston: 12-13 Oct
Chicago: 26-28 Oct
Dallas: 3-4 Nov
Richmond: 16-17 Nov
Redondo Beach, CA: 1-2 Dec
Atlanta: 13-14 Dec

» Latin America
Guayaquil, Ecuador:
   21-23 de abril
Buenos Aires: 26-28 de abril
Santiago, Chile: 2-4 de junio
Santo Domingo, República
   Dominicana: 9-11 de junio

» Brazil
Vitoria: 18-20 de abril
Belo Horizonte: 26-28 de abril
Recife: 3-5 de maio
Recife: 10-11 de maio
Salvador: 31 de maio
   a 2 de junio
Salvador: 7-8 de junho
Rio de Janeiro: 28-30 de junho
Rio de Janeiro: 12-13 de julho

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

3-4 May, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 June, 11am-3pm ET
9-10 Sept, 1-5pm ET
11-12 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

24-25 May, 9am-1pm ET
19-20 July, 11am-3pm ET
20-21 Sept, 1-5pm ET
22-23 Nov, 9am-1pm ET

» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite

5-6 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
14-15 June, 1-5pm ET
10-11 August, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

26-27 Apr, 11am-3pm ET
21-22 June, 1-5pm ET
23-24 August, 11am-3pm ET
19-20 Oct, 9am-1pm ET
20-21 Dec, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
31 Mar, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite


What's New
Wayne Winston on Huffington Post:
@RISK Simulates March Madness

Sports stats expert and author of Mathletics Wayne Winston has used @RISK to simulate the NCAA Men’s Tournament 5,000 times. Winston uses the Jeff Sagarin NCAA ratings to determine the parameters of the normal distribution that describes the outcome of each game. He also uses the RiskMean function to determine the chance each team wins any possible number (0-6) of games.

» Read the analysis for all teams and see how he’s doing
» Read more Wayne Winston on Huffington Post

Palisade Health Risk Analysis Forum

Last Chance to Register – Limited Space Remaining

Space is running out for Palisade’s Health Risk Analysis Forum. Be sure to register today to get your slot. You don’t want to miss this one-day forum covering risk and decision analysis from all angles specific to the healthcare sector. Case studies to be presented include topics such as:

  • Biotech portfolio analysis
  • Schedule risk assessment
  • Clinical trial investments
  • Health program opportunity analysis
  • And more

Software training will also be included, covering new approaches to the problems you face every day. You will see how new versions of @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank, NeuralTools, StatTools, and other Palisade software tools work together to give you the most complete picture possible in your situation. Top-level consultants, industry practitioners, and Palisade experts will present to an audience of professionals from across the spectrum of business and research.

» View the full schedule
Register today

Upcoming Webcast
"Targeted Analyses and Compelling Communication: A Formula for Successful Value Creation in Management Science"
Presented by Michael A. Kubica, Senior Scientist,
Econometric Modeling, Applied Quantitative Sciences
May 6, 2010, 11:00am ET

The value of quantitative science projects too often remains unrealized for would-be consumers. Despite flawless analyses, sophisticated reports and dazzling presentations, the message goes unheeded by those who could most benefit: If only they understood how to operationalize the results. The clarity with which quantitative scientists view the practical application of results is often paralleled only by their inability to generate that same clarity in their customers. The result is that good management science is at best ignored and worst, misunderstood (and misapplied). This free live webcast describes steps we as quantitative scientists can take to foster understanding, generate novel insights and stimulate actionable results with our clients, as well as demonstrates some of the tools we use - including @RISK.
» Register now (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

Palisade Blog Headlines
Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices?
Tuesday, March 16, 2010 - Rishi Prabhakar
Many clients have adopted Monte Carlo simulation techniques (via @RISK for Excel) into the day-to-day running of their businesses. By doing so they now have a good understanding of the exposure they are facing be it in project cost estimation, discounted cash flow analysis or, well, anything really. But this is only one facet of risk and decision assessment, specifically dealing with the descriptive statistical output from a simulation. What of the decision evaluation component? Why aren’t more of my customers analysing the decisions they make, or better yet actually optimising them? I have a few ideas why.
» Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 1
» Making Optimal Choices, or Just Making Choices? Part 2

Quantitative risk assessment under utilised for
infrastructure projects

Friday, March 12, 2010 - Craig Ferri
Why is it that most of the high profile projects managed by the government in the UK all ultimately become beset by problems? A number of projects jump to mind – the Millennium Dome, Wembley Stadium and currently the NHS IT. One wonders if the government undertakes detailed quantitative project risk analysis for its infrastructure initiatives?
» Read more

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Case Study
ADWEC uses @RISK to forecast
water demand in Abu Dhabi

The job of the Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Company (ADWEC) is to guarantee the supply and security of water and electricity across the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, part of the United Arab Emirates. Abu Dhabi relies almost completely on desalinated saltwater for its potable water requirements, and because the desalination process is challenging in terms of operation, costs, and environmental impact, it is important that ADWEC's forecasts for water and electricity demand are as accurate as possible. As a result of using @RISK to assist with its forecasting, planning and management strategies, ADWEC has been able to consistently meet with almost complete accuracy and a high degree of confidence the Abu Dhabi Emirate water demand forecasts.

» Read the full case study

Product Spotlight
Contingency Calculation in Cost Risk Analysis

When performing a cost risk analysis study, one of the key results is the amount of extra monetary resources that is to be added to the project cost baseline to guarantee that the budget is not exceeded at a certain confidence level. Good project risk management strategies must take this into account. After defining the uncertain variables and risk events that affect the cost performance of the project, we can run a Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK to find out what the range of the total project cost is. Simulation results can help us to explain the risk exposure that we have in the total cost of the project. The most popular statistics are the mean (average cost), the most likely cost, and the 10th and 90th percentiles.

download the modelRead the full tip to see how to determine the proper contingency to allocate.

Palisade Software Techniques in the News
New Tool to Compare Profitability of Crops
Technique: Decision analysis   » see DecisionTools
Source: The Prairie Star, February 27, 2010

The Montana Department of Agriculture has developed decision tools to help farmers evaluate opportunities in alternative crops and compare the returns of different cropping plans.

Finding Out What's in the Box
Technique: Neural Networks   » see NeuralTools
Source: Control Engineering UK, March 12, 2010

A new technique in neural network technology trains on visual images to assure accuracy in package labeling.

Pension Funds
True Extent of Underfunding in Public Pensions
Technique: Monte Carlo Simulation   » see @RISK
Source: American Enterprise Institute, February 26, 2010

Analysts at the American Enterprise Institute offer a method using Monte Carlo simulation and projected market returns to predict the long-termadequacy of a public pension fund.


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