In This Issue
Announcing @RISK 5.5 and
DecisionTools Suite 5.5

» Version 5.5
» What's New in @RISK 5.5
» DecisionTools Suite 5.5

Buy or Upgrade Now
» Buy or Upgrade Now and
   Get Over 150 Models

@RISK Models
» @RISK Models

What’s New
» Palisade Blog Headlines
» Upcoming Webcasts

Case Study
» Insurance Loss Modeling
   using @RISK

In This Issue
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2009 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications & Training
The 2009 Conference on Risk Analysis, Applications & Training will be held at the Hyatt Regency in Jersey City.
NYC 21-22 October 2009
» Register Now

Regional Seminars
» Africa
Johannesburg: 4-6 Nov 09

» Australia
Melbourne: 1-2 July 09
Sydney: 26-27 Aug 09
Sydney: 28 Aug 09
Sydney: 9-10 Sept 09
Brisbane: 23-24 Sept 09
Sydney: 18-19 Nov 09
Perth: 2-3 Dec 09
Sydney: 16-17 Dec 09
Sydney: 18 Dec 09

» Europe
London: 7-8 July 09
London: 9 July 09
London: 15-16 Sept 09
London: 17 Sept 09

» Latin America
Quito: 24-26 June 09
México D.F.: 6-10 July 09
Santiago, Chile: 12-14 Aug 09
Guatemala: 26-28 Aug 09
Panamá: 21-23 Sept 09

» North America
Ithaca: 24-25 June 09
San Francisco:
   30 June - 2 July 09
Cleveland: 14-15 July 09
Saskatoon: 4-6 Aug 09
Charlotte, NC: 12-13 Aug 09
Denver: 19-20 Aug 09
St. Paul, MN: 2-3 Sept 09
Seattle: 15-17 Sept 09
Toronto: 29-30 Sept 09
Las Vegas: 6-8 Oct 09
Chicago: 28-29 Oct 09
Dallas: 11-13 Nov 09
Boston: 18-19 Nov 09
Portland: 2-4 Dec 09
Atlanta: 15-16 Dec 09

Live Web Training
» Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK

13-14 July, 9am-1pm ET
10-11 Sept, 11am-3pm ET
3-4 Nov, 9am-1pm ET
7-8 Dec, 1pm-5pm ET
23-24 July, 9am-1pm ET
23-24 Sept, 11am-3pm ET
9-10 Nov, 9am-1pm ET
14-15 Dec, 1pm-5pm ET

» Decision-Making & Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite, Part I
8-9 July, 9am-1pm ET
10-11 Aug, 11am-3pm ET
5-6 Oct, 11am-3pm ET
Part II
22-23 June, 11am-3pm ET
20-21 July, 9am-1pm ET
17-18 Aug, 11am-3pm ET
12-13 Oct, 11am-3pm ET

» Project Risk Assesment Using @RISK for Project
30-31 July, 11am-3pm ET

5-Part Web Training from our Asia-Pacific Office

» Part 1
Introduction to Simulation
and Modelling Uncertainty

21 July, 1-5pm AEDT
11 Aug, 1-5pm AEDT
1 Sept, 1-5pm AEDT
29 Sept, 1-5pm AEDT
20 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT
11 Nov, 1-5pm AEDT
8 Dec, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 2
Analysing Simulation Output

23 July, 1-5pm AEDT
22 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 3
Selecting the Right Distribution

13 Aug, 1-5pm AEDT
12 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 4
Advanced Modelling Techniques

3 Sept, 1-5pm AEDT
10 Dec, 1-5pm AEDT

» Part 5
Special @RISK Functions

1 Oct, 1-5pm AEDT

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows

The DecisionTools Suite

Announcing @RISK 5.5 and DecisionTools Suite 5.5 - e-focus
    Announcing @RISK 5.5
and DecisionTools Suite 5.5!

Building on the worldwide success of @RISK 5.0 and DecisionTools Suite 5.0, Palisade is pleased to announce the version 5.5 release of these best-selling risk and decision analysis tools.

Current @RISK 5.0 users will benefit from faster simulations as well as new scatter plots from scenario analyses, a freehand distribution artist, and an Excel-style Insert Function dialog and graphs. @RISK 5.5 brings a range of new features to improve your analysis, save time, and encourage systematic adoption of risk analysis across your organization.

@RISK 5.5 is the best Monte Carlo simulation package available today, blending high-powered analysis with highly intuitive ease-of-use. The bottom line for you is a better understanding of what could happen and how likely it is to happen.

I use the new @RISK and cannot
      speak highly enough about it.

        Glenn Chisholm, Cisco

Insert Function Graph

What's New in @RISK 5.5

Simulation Speedup Models run up to 20 times faster than version 5.0. In addition, all @RISK editions now use multiple CPUs and multicore processors to speed up simulations. This saves valuable time on models large and small.

View software image Interface Improvements Quickly see distribution graphs and add @RISK functions to your model with a new Excel-style Insert Function command. Perform common tasks faster, in fewer steps.

Translated Versions @RISK 5.5 and RISKOptimizer have been fully translated into Spanish, Portuguese, French, German, and Japanese for users worldwide.

View software image Distribution Artist Use the mouse to draw your own custom freehand curves, histograms, or discrete probability graphs that can be used to create @RISK distributions. Histogram bars and general curves may be adjusted after drawing, and may be fitted to probability distributions. This is useful for graphically assessing probabilities and then creating probability distributions from the graph.

View software image Scenario Scatter Plots New scatter plots from scenario analysis highlight simulation input values for specified scenario outcomes.

Scatter Plot

Better Simulation Archiving The @RISK Library lets you store simulation results to be used as inputs for subsequent simulations, a great benefit for portfolio optimization and multi-stage applications.

View software image New Graph Types Density and cumulative graphs may now be combined on the same graph for comparison. Tornado graphs and scatter plots are now available for scenario analysis, giving a better understanding of the interaction of multiple inputs on a result.

View software image Graph Improvements A new zoom utility lets you focus on particular graph regions. Scatter plot X-Y delimiters show probabilities by quadrant. Better international support helps non-US users.

Date Enhancements Dates are fully integrated into distributions, graphs and reports for improved time and scheduling models.

Correlation Improvements Fix or assign weights to correlation elements to more accurately model relationships.

New Distribution Types Combine two distributions using the new RiskSplice function. Define uncertainty using new Johnson distribution types.

DecisionTools Suite 5.5
The entire DecisionTools Suite has been updated to integrate seamlessly with new @RISK 5.5. New versions of PrecisionTree, TopRank, RISKOptimizer, Evolver, NeuralTools, and StatTools are easier to use than before.

Congratulations on the new DecisionTools Suite!
      I’m very satisfied. This version is amazing.

      Rogerio Miorando, UFRGS, Brazil

Buy or Upgrade Now and
Get Over 150 Free Models

Upgrade Now and Save $1800 — Buy New from $1195

Get Financial Models I and Financial Models II
Books and over 150 Example Models


» UPGRADE from @RISK 5.0
   at special prices for a limited time:

@RISK 5.5 Book   to @RISK 5.5 Industrial:
SAVE $1200
   to @RISK 5.5 Professional:
SAVE $900
   to @RISK 5.5 Standard:
SAVE $720

» BUY @RISK 5.5 NEW for only:

   @RISK 5.5 Industrial — $1995
   @RISK 5.5 Professional — $1495
   @RISK 5.5 Standard — $1195

BUY DecisionTools Suite 5.5

» UPGRADE from DecisionTools Suite 5.0
   at special prices for a limited time:

   to DecisionTools Suite 5.5 Industrial: $1195 SAVE $1800
   to DecisionTools Suite 5.5 Professional: $915 SAVE $1380

» BUY DecisionTools Suite 5.5 NEW for only:

   DecisionTools Suite Industrial — $2995
   DecisionTools Suite Professional — $2295

All prices include a full year of maintenance.

» MAINTENANCE PLAN HOLDERS upgrade at no cost

Version 4.5 or earlier users, contact %%salesrep real email%% for pricing.

» Download trial

All @RISK 5.5 or DecisionTools Suite 5.5 purchases made by July 31, 2009 will be shipped with copies of Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I, and II by Wayne Winston and all accompanying example models. These books have been updated in new editions and have become the references for business and financial modeling under uncertainty. Packed with real-life example spreadsheets, they come with step-by-step instructions on a wide range of topics in finance and business. This offer ends July 31.

%%salesrep phone%% | %%salesrep real email%%

@RISK Models
The following models are examples of the many different types of applications @RISK can be used for. Order today and receive dozens more models in the books Financial Models Using Simulation I & II.

Financial Statement Forecasting
This is a basic example of financial statement modeling. Such models are built for general forecasting purposes, including financing needs and credit analysis.

In this example, a company has a fairly healthy forecasted cash flow for 2009, but also aims to reduce its long-term debt in 2009 to $70,000 from $97,000 in 2008. The company is forecasting that in the base case its financial position will be sufficient to do this. However, it wishes to analyze the probability that a short-term financing facility will be needed. The short-term debt (which is zero in the base case) is therefore set as an @RISK output, and the probability that it is non-zero can be seen both from the Results Summary window, and also from the RiskTargetD function built directly into the model sheet.

download the modelDownload the model: FinStatementsRISK.xls

Cost Estimation
When submitting a budget proposal for a project, two key questions that you are likely to be interested in are:

  1. What is the probability that the project will actually be delivered within this budget?
  2. How much contingency (i.e. extra budget) should be included in order for this new revised budget level to be achieved with a certain degree of confidence?

This model shows how one might answer these questions through simulation: It is assumed that each item's actual cost will be within a min-max range, and uses Pert distributions to describe the possible costs of each item in practice.

The user may change any of the light blue colored cells, which are the model's inputs. The answers to the key questions can be found by appropriate interrogation of the output in the Results Summary window. Alternatively, as shown here, the results can in fact be built into the model automatically, using the @RISK Statistics functions.

download the modelDownload the model: CostEstimation.xls

Event and Operational Risks
In many circumstances one wishes to calculate the aggregate impact of many possible yes/no type events. For example, it is often important to answer questions such as "What is the loss amount that will not be exceeded in 95% of cases?" Simulation is usually required to answer such questions. In this model, the "yes/no" events are modeled using Binomial distributions. The results profile shows a multi-peaked distribution, which is typical when there are discrete-type inputs. It can be seen that a provision level of around $700,000 is necessary to cover 95% of the cases.

download the modelDownload the model: EventandOperationalRisks.xls

What's New
Palisade Blog Headlines
Using Named Ranges in Excel: Some Comments
Tuesday, June 9, 2009
An earlier blog on Best Practice Principles in Excel Modelling generated quite some interest, as well as demand for more details on some of the points made, especially those concerning the use of named ranges risk asssessment models in Microsoft Excel. In the earlier posting, I had simply stated that (in my opinion): “Named ranges should be used highly selectively but not excessively”. Here I will expand a little more; the topic itself can be a subject of quite animated discussion within the risk analysis modelling community, with a wide set of opinions expressed.

» Read more

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Upcoming Webcasts
"Using the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK for Project for an Analysis of Alternatives of a Hypothetical Weapons System”
Presented by Marwaan Karame, IDG Capital Group
July 16, 2009, 1:00pm EST

There is almost universal agreement that defense acquisition is broken. A recent report from the General Accountability Office (GAO-09-362T) noted that DOD’s major weapon systems continue to take longer to develop, cost more, and deliver fewer quantities and capabilities than originally planned. Fundamental systems engineering can anticipate and help to avoid these shortcomings, leading to greater program success. This webcast will demonstrate the use of the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK for Project for a Systems Engineering and Analysis of Programmatic Alternatives of a hypothetical weapons system.

» Register now (There is no charge for this webcast.)

Case Study
Insurance Loss Modeling using @RISK
This webcast provides step-by-step instruction for simulating the present value of payments for losses occurring within a one-year policy period. Losses are covered by an aggregate excess of loss treaty. The uncertainty lies in the frequency and severity of losses, as well as in claim processing time; and also in the discount rate for calculating the present value of loss payments.

» View the archived webcast


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