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@RISK Models

2015 NCAA March Madness
by Andrew Pulvermacher, NightHawk Intelligence, LLC

According to ESPN Magazine, the NCAA tournament is one of the most wagered-on events in sports. Veteran bookmakers estimate bets range from $12 billion to $26 billion (roughly the GDP of Honduras). If you’re looking for that edge to improve your office pool odds, take a look at this @RISK model of the 2015 NCAA tournament, built by Andrew Pulvermacher of Nighthawk Intelligence. Using publically available data, you’ll be able to tame March Madness by managing uncertainty.

» 2015 NCAA tournament model using @RISK
» Webinar: Simulating the 2015 NCAA tournament with @RISK
» Pulvermacher's PPT from the webinar

2015 NCAA March Madness
by Dr. Chris Albright, Palisade

Each March, office productivity is greatly impacted by the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Just about everyone—regardless of their passion for college basketball—fills out a bracket in hopes of winning their respective pool (or pools). Some rely strictly on their knowledge of the teams involved, while others choose winners based on uniform color, where they’d rather live or other arbitrary strategies. Download this 2015 NCAA simulation model designed for @RISK, complete with 2015 Sagarin ratings to see who you would pick for the winner.

Leading PGA Golf Scores

Most PGA golf tournaments are played over 4 rounds, from Thursday to Sunday. If you follow the PGA, you have probably noticed that one or more golfers shoot really low scores, such as 7 or 8 under par, on Thursday. This might lead you to guess that the best score after all 4 rounds will be somewhere around 28 to 32 under par. However, this is almost never the case. The winning score is almost never nearly this low, as this simulation model illustrates.

2014 NCAA March Madness

Each March, office productivity is greatly impacted by the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament. Just about everyone—regardless of their passion for college basketball—fills out a bracket in hopes of winning their respective pool (or pools). Some rely strictly on their knowledge of the teams involved, while others choose winners based on uniform color, where they’d rather live or other arbitrary strategies. Download this 2014 NCAA simulation model designed for @RISK, complete with 2014 Sagarin ratings to see who you would pick for the winner.

DecisionTools Suite Models

World Cup Champion

The World Cup features 32 international soccer teams that are allocated into eight groups of four. Within each group, all four teams play against each other. The top two teams from each group advance to a group of 16 teams. A win at this level accounts for 3 points, a defeat for 0 points, and a draw accounts for only one point to both teams. An astounding number of results are possible at this stage. Once the group is winnowed down to 16 teams, a bracket-style tournament ensues. This simulation details how teams of high, intermediate, and low ranking will fare in in the 2014 World Cup tournament using @RISK and PrecisionTree. Read more about this model here.