What are the characteristics of successful managers? Surveys consistently show decision-making ability at or near the top of the lists. Perhaps no management activity is more important. Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects by John R. Schuyler presents the approach and principal techniques of decision analysis to help the reader realize faster, more confident, and better decisions.
Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects has long been a go-to resource for project managers looking to get a better handle on risk. Now, new edition 3.1 offers a complete re-write of the best-selling previous editions. The techniques described are applicable to all types of project decisions, estimates, feasibility analyses, and buy/sell valuations. With Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects and a little practice, decision analysis is easily integrated into a professional’s daily problem-solving approach.
As in previous editions, Schuyler has incorporate the use of @RISK throughout the text, applying it to new venture analysis, schedule audits, project sensitivity analysis, contingency planning, and much more. Both cost and schedule risk are subject to a wide range of uncertainty in any project planning exercise, and @RISK is well-suited to confidently assessing just how great those uncertainties are and what to do about them.
In addition, Schuyler explores the benefits of using PrecisionTree to better understand the sequence of decisions in complex problems, and to quantify the value of information in the face of unknowns. Furthermore, Schuyler explains how best to cope with uncertain values at various points in a decision process by incorporating Monte Carlo simulation from @RISK. This blending of two powerful techniques is a unique attribute of DecisionTools Suite that provides insights unavailable anywhere else.
Furthermore, optimization is explored as a means for deciding which projects to pursue in a portfolio, and for other types of resource allocation challenges. RISKOptimizer and Evolver come into play here, offering a range of optimization methods to best suit each different situation.
Throughout the text, real-life situations are explained in clear, easy-to-follow language and steps. The new edition offers online supplements and new methods that are both proven and accessible. No matter what industry you’re in – oil and gas, utilities, manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, technology, finance, you name it – the content in this book will be directly applicable to you. Making good decisions over the long term increases the probability of meeting your objectives. Those using decision analysis can sleep well at night knowing that they have made the best possible choices under the circumstances.