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Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
Product: @RISK
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Product: @RISK
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
READ ALSO
In Government:
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Product: @RISK
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Insurance Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil Exploration
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Technology Implementation
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Statistical analysis
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Sports Wagering
Product: @RISK
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Options and Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Product: @RISK
Application: Election Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Product: StatTools, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Operations Research
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation research
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Managerial Decision Making
Product: @RISK
Application: Health and food safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
Product: @RISK
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Organizational Dynamics
Product: DecisionTools Suite, @RISK, TopRank
Application: Viral Exposure
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Mining Engineering
Product: @RISK
Application: Value at Risk Analysis
READ ALSO
In Agriculture:
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture
Lower Colorado River Authority
Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Product: @RISK
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Market Feasibility
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Product: @RISK
Application: Food Safety
Product: @RISK
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Product: @RISK
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
Product: @RISK
Application: Agricultural Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating Financial Risk in new Salmon Farming Scenarios
Product: @RISK
Application: Food safety, Detection of BSE
Department of Agriculture
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Wool Pricing
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
Product: @RISK
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Estate Development
Electricity Company
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Reduction
Services Limited
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Product: @RISK
Application: Drilling Productivity
Product: @RISK
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Equipment Reliability
Product: @RISK
Application: ROI of Different Projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Planning
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Product: @RISK
Application: Price Hedging
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost estimation
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Exploration, Drilling, and Production Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Energy supply and Electricity Demand
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Rescue Operations
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration
Public Service Company
Product: @RISK, Evolver, RISKOptimizer
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Product: @RISK
Application: Exploration & Production
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Energy Production and Pricing
Product: @RISK
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Product: @RISK
Application: Solar energy savings
Product: @RISK
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Return on Investment
SEE ALSO:
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Energy Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Disaster Planning
Lower Colorado River Authority
Product: @RISK
Application: Natural Resource Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Protection
UK Environment Agency
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Product: @RISK
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Product: @RISK
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection
READ ALSO
In Academic:
Product: @RISK
Application: Climate Change
Product: Decision Tools Suite (@RISK, Precision Tree and Evolver)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Product: @RISK
Application: Helping aquatic farmers to make informed choices that reduce risk of disease in their animals without extensive and costly testing
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Credit and debt risk analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Product: @RISK
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Product: @RISK
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Product: @RISK & RISKOptimizer
Application: Hedge Fund management
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Product: @RISK
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Product: @RISK
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
READ ALSO
In Academic:
Product: @RISK
Application: Venture Capital Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Investment Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Finance/Banking Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Product: @RISK
Application: Budgeting
Product: @RISK
Application: Urban Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Air Quality
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Product: @RISK
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk for Acquisitions
Product: @RISK
Application: Project management, cost estimation, event risk
READ ALSO
In Environment:
UK Environment Agency
Product: @RISK
Application: Flood Management

Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Enhancement of MRIs
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Institute for Pathology
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Medical Diagnosis
of Health and Mental Hygiene
Product: @RISK, RISKOptimizer
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Product: NeuralTools, StatTools
Application: Forecasting Patient Load
Product: @RISK
Application: Disease Prevention
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Public Health screening
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
READ ALSO
In Finance:
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Portfolio Planning
Product: @RISK, BestFit
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Illinois State University
Product: @RISK
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
Product: @RISK
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Product: @RISK
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Casualty Actuary Society
Product: @RISK
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
READ ALSO
In Government:
PricewaterhouseCoopers
Product: @RISK
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
SEE ALSO: INDUSTRY MODELS
» Insurance Models
Product: @RISK
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
Product: @RISK
Application: Factory Shutdown
Product: @RISK
Application: Supply Chain Management
Product: @RISK Developer Kit (RDK)
Application: Value at Risk (VaR)
Product: @RISK
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Project Management
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: Evolver, @RISK
Application: Enterprise Resource Planning
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Project Evaluation
Product: @RISK
Application: Tolerance Stacking
Product: @RISK
Application: Project Management
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
READ ALSO
In Finance:
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Product: @RISK
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Product: Evolver, @RISK
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Product: DecisionTools Suite, PrecisionTree
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
READ ALSO
In Government:
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Projection
Product: @RISK, PrecisionTree, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Endangered Species Protection
& Transport, Denmark
Product: @RISK
Application: Transportation Planning
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Product: @RISK
Application: Project management
Product: NeuralTools
Application: Demand and Pricing Elasticity
Product: DecisionTools Suite
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Product: @RISK
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Product: @RISK
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Product: @RISK for Project
Application: Regulation Compliance in Public Transit Projects
Product: @RISK, TopRank, BestFit, DecisionTools Suite
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
Product: @RISK Developer Kit
Application: Transportation Safety and Investments
Product: @RISK
Application: Capital Investment
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure PPP projects
Product: @RISK
Application: PPP rail project financing
Product: @RISK
Application: Freight transport
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgery Center
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: PrecisionTree
Application: Estimating Outcomes of Litigation
Industry: Legal
Product: @RISK
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Construction
Product: @RISK
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Product: @RISK
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance/Banking
Product: @RISK
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Energy
Product: @RISK
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Academic
Product: @RISK
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Product: @RISK
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: @RISK
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits
Industry: Financial Forensics
Product: @RISK
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Product: @RISK
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Product: Custom Development
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Government
Product: @RISK
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Environmental
Product: @RISK
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Product: The DecisionTools Suite
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Environment
Product: @RISK
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Finance
Product: @RISK
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Government
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Industry: Environment
Application: Disaster Planning
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Financial Risk Management in Agriculture
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceutical
Application: rNPV of New Companies and Technologies
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Optimization including IDB
Industry: Academia
Application: Sports Wagering
Industry: Shipping
Application: Risk and cost-benefit analysis to enhance the safety of ships and ship systems
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Evaluating Efficacy of Public Health Initiatives
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation, Distribution, and Inventory Management
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
Industry: Utilities
Application: Load Forecasting
Industry: Telecommunications
Application: Enterprise Risk Management
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Design of Experiments
Industry: Finance
Application: Private label credit card (PLCC) accounts for major electronics retailer
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Evaluation
Industry: Engineering, Construction
Application: Project cost and schedule risk analysis
Industry: Academic
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Private equity investment in nanotechnology
Industry: Sustainable energy (project consulting)
Application: Optimising the business case for sustainable energy projects
Industry: Finance
Application: Engineering system design and optimization
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Product launch, capex, and many others
Industry: Healthcare / Pharmaceutical
Application: Public Health screening
Industry: Energy, Finance, Medical, and more
Application: Managerial Decision Making
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
Industry: Sciences
Application: Viral Exposure
Industry: Environment
Application: Endangered Species Protection
SEE ALSO
In StatTools:
Industry: Academic
Application: Operations Research
In @RISK:
Public Service Company
Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Electricity Company
Industry: Energy and Utilities
Application: Demand Forecasting
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Assessing Catastrophic Drought Risk
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating vehicles on congested roads
Services Limited
Industry: Energy
Application: Risk modelling to determine optimum risk financing and insurance strategies
Services Limited
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Long-Range Capacity Planning
Industry: Academic
Application: Health and food safety
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost Reduction
Industry: Aerospace
Application: New product development, feasibility studies, business initiatives
Industry: Environment
Application: Cost Justification of Water Recycling Systems
Industry: Non-Profit
Application: Budget Forecasting
Industry: Environment
Application: Climate Change and Flooding Risk Assessment
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Analysis
Industry: Finance
Application: Derivatives Pricing
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Demand and Cost Forecasting
Industry: Energy
Application: Drilling Productivity
Industry: Academic
Application: Oil Exploration
Industry: Mining
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Industry: Academic
Application: Climate Change
Industry: Nuclear Energy / Energy Infrastructure
Application: Mitigating project schedule and cost overrun risk
& Transport, Denmark
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Planning
Industry: Energy
Application: Acquisitions Analysis
Industry: Transportation / Government
Application: Project management
Industry: Academic
Application: Energy and Public Policy
Industry: Shipping/Transport
Application: Financial Planning for Shipping Investment Funds
Industry: Academic
Application: Financial Management
Illinois State University
Industry: Insurance
Application: Reinsurance Strategy
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Factory Shutdown
Industry: Energy
Application: Equipment Reliability
Lower Colorado River Authority
Industry: Environment
Application: Natural Resource Mgmt
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agriculture Policy Assessment
Industry: Six Sigma
Application: Six Sigma Quality Analysis
Industry: Academic
Application: Statistical analysis
Industry: Government
Application: Carbon emission forecasts
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Cell Captive Insurance
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Financial Planning for Environmental Rehabilitation
Industry: Energy
Application: ROI of Different Projects
Industry: Energy
Application: Project Risk Management, Enterprise Risk Management, SHE Risk Management, Operational Risk Management
Industry: Energy research organisation
Application: Financial analysis of offshore wind farms
Industry: Government/Defense
Application: Budgeting
Industry: Transportation
Application: Pavement Cost Analysis
Industry: Finance
Application: Portfolio Credit Risk
Industry: Finance
Application: Asset Allocation, Value-at-Risk
Industry: Energy / Utilities
Application: Energy Budget Resilience Optimization
Industry: Energy
Application: Oil and Gas Estimating
Industry:Transportation
Application: Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Industry: Energy
Application: Price Hedging
Industry: Government
Application: Urban Planning
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Supply Chain Management
Industry: Finance
Application: Debt Portfolios, Capital Investments
Industry: Energy
Application: Dam maintenance and repair
Industry: Energy
Application: Investment Analysis
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Flood Protection
Industry: Healthcare/Pharmaceuticals
Application: Modeling Business Valuation Scenarios for a Surgury Center
UK Environment Agency
Industry: Environment
Application: Flood Management
Industry: Government
Application: Cash Flow Analysis
Industry: Medical
Application: Blood Screening
Industry: Energy
Application: Cost estimation
Industry: Academic / Pharmaceutical
Application: Pharmaceutical R&D, Net Present Value, Internal Rate of Return
Industry: Academic
Application: Real Options and Finance
Industry: Academic
Application: Finance and Capital Markets
Industry: Environment
Application: Mine Remediation
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Energy Supply and Electricity Demand
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Future Net Income Forecasting
Industry: Medical
Application: Pandemic Preparedness
Industry: Academic / Politics
Application: Election Forecasting
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food Safety
Industry: Government
Application: Disaster Response Planning
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modelling project cost contingency and escalation
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Biosecurity to Avoid Disease Introduction
Industry: Government
Application: Air Quality
Project Management
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Real Option Valuations of Power Plants
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule risk assessment
Industry: Government
Application: Large-scale Hospital Evacuation Planning
Industry: Finance
Application: Risk Quantification in Film Financing
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Value-at-Risk Exchange Rate
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
Industry: Environment
Application: Quantifying Illegal Fishing
Industry: Construction
Application: Evaluating enterprise risks using risk modelling for a cash flow based approach
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Modeling electricity network restoration performance
Industry: Finance
Application: Budget Forecasting
of Health and Mental Hygiene
Industry: Medical
Application: Future Pandemic Planning
Public Service Company
Industry: Energy
Application: Pricing, Production Allocation for Regulation Compliance
Industry: Environment
Application: Estimating effects of dams on Atlantic salmon population dynamics
Industry: Construction
Application: Fire Risk Mitigation
Industry: Government
Application: Budget Projection
Industry: Construction
Application: Cost and Schedule Risk Analysis
Industry: Construction
Application: Fehmarn Belt Fixed Link
Industry: Finance
Application: Intellectual Property Valuation
Industry: Energy
Application: Exploration & Production
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Tolerance Stacking
Industry: Aerospace
Application: Schedule and Cost Risk, Project Management
Industry: Government
Application: Insurance Premium Reduction
Industry: Environment, Government
Application: Cost-benefit analysis of biofuel production under two government policies
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Developing new oil shale technologies
Industry: Property
Application: Calculating investment risk and ROI
Industry: Medical
Application: Disease Prevention
Industry: Finance/Banking
Application: Valuation of Direct Investment
Industry: Energy
Application: Waste disposal and renewable energy
Industry: Insurance
Application: Comparing commercial properties; RAROC
Industry: Government
Application: Food safety, monitoring contaminants
Industry: Energy
Application: Evaluate petroleum and petrochemical projects valued over US$100m
Industry: Transportation
Application: Capital Investment
Casualty Actuary Society
Industry: Insurance/Reinsurance
Application: Pension and Insurance Planning
Industry: Financial Forensics
Application: Projecting Economic Damages for Attorneys Involved in Complex Lawsuits.
Industry: Transportation
Application: Transportation Infrastructure
Industry: Construction
Application: Infrastructure Cost Estimation
Industry: Academic
Application: Venture Capital Management
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Project Management
Industry: Academic
Application: Transportation research
Industry: Utilities
Application: Assessing Needs for Equipment Upgrades
Industry: Manufacturing
Application: Market Feasibility
Industry: Energy & Utilities
Application: Refinery Optimization
Industry: Energy
Application: Solar energy savings
Industry: Power
Application: Measuring and Mitigating Open Market Risk
Industry: Transportation
Application: PPP rail project financing
Industry: Transportation
Application: Freight Transport
Industry: Academic
Application: Food Safety
Industry: Defence
Application: Project Management
Industry: Academic
Application: Prediction of metal corrosion in salt water
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Analyzing Hybrid Varieties of Rice Crops
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Agricultural Investment
Industry: Environment
Application: Modeling extinction risk for Endangered Species
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Forecasting Dairy Operating Profits
Industry: Academic / Agriculture
Application: Reducing Environmental Impact of Commercial Aquaculture
Industry: Academic
Application: Organizational Dynamics
Industry: Health
Application: Evaluating kidney function for organ transplant
Industry: Agriculture/Aquaculture
Application: Evaluating production strategies for salmon farming
Industry: Agriculture
Application: Food safety, detection of BSE
Industry: Academic
Application: Lifetime Excess Cancer Risk
Industry: Academic
Application: Mining Engineering
Industry: Government / Defense
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Application: Risk assessment of major IT projects
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Application: Return on Investment
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Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
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Novartis Pharmaceutical
Industry: Financing/Banking
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Application: Disaster Planning
Industry: Energy
Application: Geothermal Power Plant Equipment Procurement
Novartis Pharmaceutical
Industry: Financing/Banking
Application: Portfolio Management
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Industry: Finance
Application: Production Siting, New Product Analysis, Exchange Rate Analysis, Real Options
Industry: Environment
Application: Pollution Cleanup
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Application: Endangered Species Protection
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of Health and Mental Hygiene
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Novartis Pharmaceutical
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Application: Portfolio Management
SEE:
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Public Service Company
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Casualty Actuary Society
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PricewaterhouseCoopers
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» Insurance Models

How much will your retirement savings be worth when you turn 65? A simple spreadsheet model may provide a number, but how accurate is that number? The model will likely be driven by the growth rate assumptions used for equities, bonds, real estate, and cash. And don’t forget to factor in the effects of inflation on your savings. How do you accurately predict these key economic indices and thereby accurately forecast your nest egg?
Modeling Economic Indices
Actuaries face similar challenges every day when calculating requirements for pension funds, life insurance, or long-term care. A recent research study by three noted authorities in actuarial practice provides a model for projecting economic indices such as interest rates, equity price levels, inflation rates, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. That model is now available on two actuarial society websites. The researchers’ goal was not simply to create a model, but to help bring practicing actuaries up to date on current thinking and techniques for economic modeling and to lay the foundation for future advances.
The Research Project
Combining their expertise in actuarial science, finance, and mathematics, Kevin Ahlgrim, Illinois State University, and Stephen D’Arcy and Richard Gorvett, both of University of Illinois Champaign-Urbana collaborated on the research and the model, which were sponsored by the Society of Actuaries and the Casualty Actuary Society. First, they made a broad sweep through the academic literature on the relationships among economic variables, particularly relating to interest rates, inflation and equity returns, and provided summaries of that information on the societies’ web sites. Next they surveyed the state of the art of modeling in the insurance industry to identify best practices and ways in which they might advance those practices.
The Financial Scenario Model
The model provides an integrated framework for sampling future financial scenarios that represent a reasonable approximation of historical values (see graph). It produces output values for interest rates, inflation, stock and real estate returns, dividends, and unemployment. The model was created using Microsoft Excel and Palisade’s @RISK. @RISK’s built-in probability distribution functions, correlation matrices, and simulation results were essential to the study. The model will prove useful for a variety of actuarial applications, including dynamic financial analysis (DFA), dynamic financial condition analysis, pricing embedded options in insurance contracts, solvency testing, and operational planning. According to Stephen D’Arcy, the insurance industry “has been using DFA for a number of years now to come up with aggregate projections of financial results combining the underwriting and investment sides of the business. Many actuarial firms have developed their own, proprietary DFA models. The difference between the existing models and the one we developed for the societies is that our model is publicly accessible.”
“@RISK Leverages Simplicity”
In spinning out these scenarios, the @RISK model is able to correlate such variables as the performance of stocks and bonds, the housing market, and natural disasters with interest rates, inflation, and unemployment. Capturing the interplay among these variables creates a far more accurate model. D’Arcy says the insurance industry benefits since “unforeseen events can create havoc with insurance rates, and better modeling tools will result in better prepared insurance companies and more consistent pricing for insurance buyers.”
The report, entitled Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios, explains why the team decided to use @RISK. In its overview of the software, the report says, “@RISK leverages the simplicity of spreadsheets and integrates powerful analysis tools that help to randomly generate future scenarios to allow the examination of risk in a stochastic environment.” The report continues, “@RISK allows input variables to have explicit, user defined distributions and can easily capture the correlation between dependent variables. Additionally, a significant benefit of @RISK is the ability to capture, study, and report simulation results.”
Saving Time and Resources
Is a Monte Carlo simulation tool like @RISK required for the projection of future economic scenarios such as insurance policy pricing, retirement planning, and investment asset allocation? The team believed that “leveraging an existing and widely available simulation spreadsheet package is the most effective approach.” States Ahlgrim: “From our perspective, @RISK saved time and resources, especially during the model’s development. The interface through Excel allowed us to use a tool with which actuaries are very comfortable and introduce stochastic modeling procedures without resorting to programming. Writing code to simulate financial processes, incorporate correlations, and capture output would have been a formidable task. @RISK allowed us to develop these features quickly and easily.” The report continues, “We sincerely believe that any organization truly interested in generating economic and financial scenarios should commit the resources to purchasing and understanding such a package.”
Try the Model Yourself
The report, supporting presentations, and model are available from the Casualty Actuary Society website or the Society of Actuaries website. The model is free and can be used by any interested party. The Society of Actuaries is an educational, research, and professional organization dedicated to serving the public and SOA members. The SOA is made up of over 16,000 actuaries working in life insurance, retirement systems, health benefit systems, and financial and investment management. The Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) is a professional society with the purpose of advancing the body of knowledge of actuarial science applied to property, casualty, and similar risk exposures. The CAS has over 4,000 members.
»
Casualty Actuary Society
»
Society of Actuaries
» Get the Report and Model: Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios
»
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