Utility Risk Modeling
by Roy Nersesian
Utility Risk Modeling is an update to Energy Risk Modeling, focusing only on renewables and electricity storage. Energy Risk Modeling and Utility Risk Modeling should be viewed as a single endeavor and as reference for simulation, decision trees, and optimization techniques for energy applications. This book has many real-life examples that demonstrate how to make better financial decisions within the renewable energy industry using @RISK, PrecisionTree, and Evolver. Roy Nersesian’s easy-to-read, step-by-step approach makes his techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel.
- Modeling solar power output by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day, and seasonal changes plus modeling wind power output for desired seasonal average output while optimizing the models to match daily energy demand with power generated.
- Introducing a proposed method of modeling a complex pattern for daily electricity demand with a series of pert distributions.
- Integrating natural gas plants with solar and wind installations, analyzing the performance of a three-power source system for shortages and surpluses to determine required battery storage for reliable performance.
- Establishing a method for measuring energy content by water depth for three differently shaped reservoirs: cylinder, cone, and two degree polynomial.
- Projecting natural gas prices using @RISK Time Series to perform a financial analysis of electricity generating systems made up of renewables and natural gas plants.
- Many more updated renewables and electricity storage models and applications.
Author Roy Nersesian
Roy Nersesian is a professor in the School of Business at Monmouth University and holds a BS in physics from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, followed by 8 years in the U.S. Navy with his last position as Chief Engineer on a Polaris submarine.
He graduated from Harvard Business School with an MBA and worked in various facets of the shipping industry. He began his academic career in 1985 at Monmouth focusing on operations management with an elective in renewable energy. He also taught as an adjunct at SIPA, Columbia University in marine transportation and energy modeling using @RISK as a software platform.
Professor Nersesian has written several books, with three in energy. The latest version is Energy Economics published by Routledge, 2016.Palisade Books