Zurich, July 2
Gain confidence in decision making through probabilistic risk analysis in Excel
Everyone deals with uncertainty and risk in decision making. @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite help by showing a range of possible outcomes–and how likely they are to occur–right in your Excel model. By adding Monte Carlo Simulation, you can move from a model with a single deterministic value–a less realistic picture–to a fuller view that shows a range of probabilities, right in Microsoft Excel.
This 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Workshop serves as an introduction to probabilistic modelling with @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, with a particular focus on Pharma and Insurance industries. The goal is for you to leave with an understanding of how the power of quantitative techniques can be applied in your own models. The quantitative modeling techniques demonstrated in the workshop can be applied to Pharma, Insurance, or any industry.
Download a trial version of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial software, so that you can start applying new techniques–and get great insights–in your own models.
- Learn how to enhance models using
quantitative risk analysis
- Gain knowledge about advanced
- Use techniques that lead to more
confident business decisions
- Gain insights for modelling in any
industry or application
- Network with analysts and experts
who solve similar problems
From previous events
We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.–Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin
A great opportunity to meet both experts from other industries and risk analyst professionals. I gained new insights both from presentations as well as discussions.–Joerg Guenther, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
Learned several things I will be able to take back and directly use.– Bob Hess, Senior Principal Engineer, SRP
Tuesday, July 2Download Agenda
8:45 - 9:15Registration & coffee
9:15 - 9:45WelcomeIntroduction to Palisade and the world of probabilistic analysisWe will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?
9:45 - 10:45Risk Appraisal in Pharmaceutical companiesSoftware Session
Quantitative risk analysis is often required by pharmaceutical companies when a new product is launched in order to estimate the cumulative probabilities of success for each development phase as well as the potential earnings for that project. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build a model of this type from scratch.
Take outs will include:
- Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk.
- Choosing a distribution to model risk events and risk impacts.
- Generating a histogram/ S-Curve and customizing it for reports.
- Interpreting tornado graphs to understand key drivers in models.
- Automatically generating meaningful information using the @RISK statistics functions.
- How to get the same results each time a simulation is run.
- Using confidence levels (percentiles) to quantify the likelihood of an outcome.
10:45 - 11:00Networking Break
11:00 - 12:00Risk appraisal for insurance companiesSoftware Session
In this session attendees will learn how to put together a life insurance model that allows the estimation of an appropriate premium amount for each customer based on a mortality table and survival function associated for each age. Additionally, a Self Insurance Model will also be shown to discuss the advantages of running multiple simulations.
Take outs will include:
- How to use Excel cell references in a model, and why it is best practice to do so.
- How to use the RiskGeneral function to build specific probability functions according to user’s needs.
- The use of RiskSimtable to run multiple simulations.
- Using scatter plots as a sanity check on a model.
- Calculating how much contingency needs to be added to a base estimate.
- How to determine the optimum number of scenarios to be considered in a simulation through the Auto Convergence tool.
12:00 - 13:15Choosing a distribution that fitsSoftware SessionThis session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.
13:15 - 14:00Networking Break
14:00 - 14:45Financial modelling with @RISKSoftware SessionMany organizational decisions involve making calculated risk/return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow-NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.
14:45 - 16:00Sensitivity analysis and optimisation: TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer/EvolverSoftware SessionThis session will look at some of the companion tools that are available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we'll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It's also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they're behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options. Finally, the session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions - stochastic optimisation.
16:00 - 17:00Closing Remarks and networking reception
Novotel Zürich City West
8005 Zurich, Switzerland