Johannesburg, April 10
Gain confidence in decision making through probabilistic risk analysis in Excel
Everyone deals with uncertainty and risk in decision making. @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite help by showing a range of possible outcomes–and how likely they are to occur–right in your Excel model. By adding Monte Carlo Simulation, you can move from a model with a single deterministic value–a less realistic picture–to a fuller view that shows a range of probabilities, right in Microsoft Excel.
This 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Workshop serves as an introduction to probabilistic modelling with @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite. The goal is for you to leave with an understanding of how the power of quantitative techniques can be applied in your own models, including project cost estimates, risk registers, discounted cash flow, and more.
Download a trial version of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial software, so that you can start applying new techniques–and get great insights–in your own models.
- Learn how to enhance models using
quantitative risk analysis
- Gain knowledge about advanced
- Use techniques that lead to more
confident business decisions
- Gain insights for modelling in any
industry or application
- Network with analysts and experts
who solve similar problems
From previous events
We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.–Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin
A great opportunity to meet both experts from other industries and risk analyst professionals. I gained new insights both from presentations as well as discussions.–Joerg Guenther, IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG
Learned several things I will be able to take back and directly use.– Bob Hess, Senior Principal Engineer, SRP
Monday, April 10Download Agenda
8:45 - 9:15Registration & coffee
9:15 - 9:45WelcomeIntroduction to Palisade and the world of probabilistic analysisWe will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?
9:45 - 10:45Building a project cost estimate with @RISKSoftware Presentation
In this session attendees will learn how to put together a simple cost model using @RISK, learning about a number of important features along the way.
Take outs will include:
- Understanding how to get the same results each time a simulation is run.
- How to use Excel cell references in a model, and why it is best practice to do so.
- Generating a histogram/ S-Curve and customising it for reports.
- Interpreting tornado graphs to understand key drivers in models.
- Using scatter plots as a sanity check on a model.
- Using confidence levels (percentiles) to quantify the likelihood of an outcome.
- Automatically generating meaningful information using the @RISK statistics functions.
- Calculating how much contingency needs to be added to a base estimate.
10:45 - 11:00Networking Break
11:00 - 12:00Making Risk Registers with @RISKSoftware Presentation
Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.
Take outs will include:
- Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk
- How to choose a distribution to model event risk
- Why building a conditional risk register is the only theoretically sound way of modelling event risk
- How to combine likelihood and severity using RiskMakeInput and RiskCompound
12:00 - 13:15Choosing a distribution that fitsSoftware PresentationThis session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.
13:15 - 14:00Networking Break
14:00 - 14:45Financial modelling with @RISKSoftware PresentationMany organizational decisions involve making calculated risk/return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow-NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.
14:45 - 16:00Sensitivity analysis and optimisation: TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer/EvolverSoftware PresentationThis session will look at some of the companion tools that are available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we'll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It's also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they're behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options. Finally, the session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions - stochastic optimisation.
16:00 - 17:00Closing Remarks and networking reception
Radisson Blue Hotel Sandton, Johannesburg
If you are travelling in from north, east or south, it is possible to park your car at one of the Gautrain stations, and catch the Gautrain in to the Workshop, to avoid traffic. This has been confirmed to be efficient from past attendees.