Abstracts - 摘要

  Intro to Palisade and the World of Probabilistic Analysis
介绍PALISADE和概率分析的世界

We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?

我们将通过对Palisade公司的简单介绍来开始此次会议，然后讲解您一直面临的这些问题：“什么是风险分析，以及为什么需要它？毕竟，风险管理似乎在许多例子中失败过，即使是现在，企业也在试图找出如何应对风险并释放概率分析的力量。 我们如何避免失误，以及我们如何充分利用管理未来的工具？

  Building a Project Cost Estimate with @RISK
使用@RISK构建项目成本估算

In this session attendees will learn how to put together a simple cost model using @RISK, learning about a number of important features along the way.

在本次会议中学员将学习如何使用@RISK组合一个简单的成本模型，和软件上的不同功能。

Take outs will include:

• Understanding how to get the same results each time a simulation is run.
• How to use Excel cell references in a model, and why it is best practice to do so.
• Generating a histogram/ S-Curve and customising it for reports.
• Interpreting tornado graphs to understand key drivers in models.
• Using scatter plots as a sanity check on a model.
• Using confidence levels (percentiles) to quantify the likelihood of an outcome.
• Automatically generating meaningful information using the @RISK statistics functions.
• Calculating how much contingency needs to be added to a base estimate.

• 理解如何在每次运行模拟时获得相同的结果。
• 如何在模型中使用Excel单元格引用，以及为什么最好这样做。
• 生成直方图/ 累积曲线并为报告进行自定义。
• 解读龙卷风图表以了解模型中的关键驱动因素。
• 使用散点图对模型进行完整性检查。
• 使用置信水平（百分点）来量化结果的可能性。
• 使用@RISK统计函数自动生成有意义的信息。
• 计算需要添加多少意外预算到一个基本估计。

  Making Risk Registers with @RISK
制作风险登记册

Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.

定量风险登记册可以添加到任何模型中，但基本上是关于对可能性（或频率）和严重性进行建模，然后将它们结合起来。 本次会议将为与会者提供从头开始构建自己的教程。

Take outs will include:

• Understanding why the average is a risky way to model risk
• How to choose a distribution to model event risk
• Why building a conditional risk register is the only theoretically sound way of modeling event risk
• How to combine likelihood and severity using RiskMakeInput and RiskCompound

• 了解为什么平均值是模拟风险的有风险的方法
• 如何选择分布来模拟事件风险
• 为什么建立有条件的风险登记册是建立事件风险的唯一理论上合理的方法
• 如何使用RiskMakeInput和RiskCompound结合可能性和严重性

  Choosing a Distribution That Fits
选择适合的分配

This session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.

这一节我们将讨论@RISK中最受欢迎分布。 将讨论和比较各种用于为您的需求选择正确分配的技术，其中包括实用理论和数据驱动的方式。 我们将讨论使用不同的分布; 离散，连续的和两者的组合，以解决广泛的风险建模情况。

  Financial Modelling with @RISK
@RISK进行金融建模

Many organizational decisions involve making calculated risk / return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow -NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.

许多组织决策涉及计算风险/回报判断，评估和管理风险因此组成公司分析的部分。本次章节以@RISK概率折现净现值-NPV模型为基础介绍了@RISK的基础。 这包括设置模型逻辑，将输入分布和输出函数插入电子表格，运行模拟，然后生成各种图形和报告。 我们将讨论这些蒙特卡洛模拟结果的解释，并描述更高级的功能，比如评估具有特殊功能的不同场景。

  Sensitivity Analysis and Optimisation: TopRank, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer/Evolver
灵敏度分析和优化: TopRank, PrecisionTree和RISKOptimizer/Evolver

This session will look at some of the companion tools that are available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we'll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It's also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they're behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options. Finally, the session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions - stochastic optimisation.

本次会议将接触到DecisionTools Suite中与@RISK一起提供的一些配套工具。 首先，我们来看看TopRank，这是一款非常快速但功能强大的工具，可让您在任何模型中查找关键驱动程序。 它也是审计模型以确保它们按预期行事的非常受欢迎的工具。 接下来将介绍PrecisionTree，这是可让您快速构建决策树的工具，以指导面对不同选项的战略选择。 最后，会议将概述RISKOptimizer，该软件利用@RISK的优势在不确定条件下进行优化 - 随机优化。