Schedule - 议程
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
议程有可能改动
Palisade invites you to a 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshop.
This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk or decision making under uncertainty in any industry. This workshop is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, or deals with modelling situations where there is uncertainty, and there will be applicability to all industries and modelling requirements.
Palisade公司邀请您参加为期一天的风险与决策分析培训研讨会。 对于在任何行业中处于不确定性状态下处理风险或决策的专业人士而言,这是“必须参加”一次活动 本次研讨会专门为风险分析作为其工作一部分的人员而设计,或者针对存在不确定性的建模情况进行处理,并且将适用于所有行业和建模的需求。
The programme includes training sessions run by Palisade experts, who will present several sessions on quantitative modeling using @RISK, including an introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation, building a project cost estimate, making risk registers, choosing the distribution that fits, sensitivity analysis, decision analysis, and optimization. Participants will work on models along with the trainer to understand how quantitative techniques like Monte Carlo simulation and optimisation can apply to any business decision making problem involving uncertainty.
这次内容包括由Palisade专家开展的培训课程,他们将使用@RISK进行关于定量建模的课程,包括蒙特卡洛模拟介绍,建立项目成本估算,制作风险登记表,选择适合的分布,灵敏度分析,决策分析和优化。 参与者将与培训师一起研究模型,蒙特卡罗模拟和优化应用于任何不确定性的决策问题。
The charge to attend this event is AUD $100. Registration includes a 1-month standalone license of the full DecisionTools Suite Industrial software, which you will receive one week prior to the event.
Refreshments and a lunch break are provided during the course of the day.
The event promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.
这个活动很有价值可为自己扩展风险建模的知识,以及与各行各业的决策专业人士建立联系。
DecisionTools Suite Industrial (中文)
Please contact us at salesAP@palisade.com if you have any questions about this event.
Sorry, this product is not currently available.
Schedule is subject to change without notice.
议程有可能改动
We will open the conference with a brief overview of Palisade, and then address the question you’ve undoubtedly been faced with: “What is risk analysis, and why do I need it?” After all, risk management appears to have failed in many examples, and even now companies are trying to figure out how to grapple with risk and unlock the power of probabilistic analysis. How do we avoid missteps, and how do we make the most of the tools we have for managing the future?
我们将通过对Palisade公司的简单介绍来开始此次会议,然后讲解您一直面临的这些问题:“什么是风险分析,以及为什么需要它?毕竟,风险管理似乎在许多例子中失败过,即使是现在,企业也在试图找出如何应对风险并释放概率分析的力量。 我们如何避免失误,以及我们如何充分利用管理未来的工具?
In this session attendees will learn how to put together a simple cost model using @RISK, learning about a number of important features along the way.
在本次会议中学员将学习如何使用@RISK组合一个简单的成本模型,和软件上的不同功能。
Take outs will include:
Quantitative risk registers are something which can be added to any model, but are fundamentally about modelling likelihood (or frequency) and severity, and then combining them. This session will give attendees the opportunity to build one themselves from scratch.
定量风险登记册可以添加到任何模型中,但基本上是关于对可能性(或频率)和严重性进行建模,然后将它们结合起来。 本次会议将为与会者提供从头开始构建自己的教程。
Take outs will include:
This session will look at the most popular distributions in @RISK. A variety of techniques for choosing the right distribution for your needs will be discussed and compared, including pragmatic, theoretical and data-driven methods. We will discuss the use of different distributions; discrete, continuous and a combination of both, to address a wide range of risk modelling situations.
这一节我们将讨论@RISK中最受欢迎分布。 将讨论和比较各种用于为您的需求选择正确分配的技术,其中包括实用理论和数据驱动的方式。 我们将讨论使用不同的分布; 离散,连续的和两者的组合,以解决广泛的风险建模情况。
Many organizational decisions involve making calculated risk / return judgements, evaluating and managing risk must therefore be an integral part of business activities. This session is an introduction to the fundamentals of @RISK using a probabilistic discounted cash flow -NPV model as the basis. This includes setting out the model logic, inserting input distributions and output functions to the spreadsheet, running a simulation, and then generating various graphs and reports. We will discuss the interpretation of these Monte Carlo simulation results, and describe the more advanced features such as assessing different scenarios with special functions.
许多组织决策涉及计算风险/回报判断,评估和管理风险因此组成公司分析的部分。本次章节以@RISK概率折现净现值-NPV模型为基础介绍了@RISK的基础。 这包括设置模型逻辑,将输入分布和输出函数插入电子表格,运行模拟,然后生成各种图形和报告。 我们将讨论这些蒙特卡洛模拟结果的解释,并描述更高级的功能,比如评估具有特殊功能的不同场景。
This session will look at some of the companion tools that are available alongside @RISK within the DecisionTools Suite. First of all we'll take a look at TopRank, a very quick, yet powerful, tool which allows you to find key drivers in any model. It's also a very popular tool for auditing models to make sure they're behaving as expected. This will be followed by a look at PrecisionTree, a tool which allows you to quickly build up decision trees to guide strategy choices in the face of different options. Finally, the session will give an overview of RISKOptimizer, the software which utilises the power of @RISK to optimise under uncertain conditions - stochastic optimisation.
本次会议将接触到DecisionTools Suite中与@RISK一起提供的一些配套工具。 首先,我们来看看TopRank,这是一款非常快速但功能强大的工具,可让您在任何模型中查找关键驱动程序。 它也是审计模型以确保它们按预期行事的非常受欢迎的工具。 接下来将介绍PrecisionTree,这是可让您快速构建决策树的工具,以指导面对不同选项的战略选择。 最后,会议将概述RISKOptimizer,该软件利用@RISK的优势在不确定条件下进行优化 - 随机优化。
133 Nanjing East Road, Sec. 3
Taipei
10487
Taiwan
Phone: (886)(2) 8779 6565
For more information, see the hotel website.