Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

September 13th, 2018 • Seattle

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day risk and decision analysis conference. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company

“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd

“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development

“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems

“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems

“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin

Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis.

Information about 2018 Conferences


Thursday 13 September 2018

Schedule is subject to change without notice.


8:00 - 8:30
Registration and Coffee
8:30 - 8:45

Ryan Meluch

8:45 - 9:45

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Fernando Hernández

9:45 - 10:30

Long-Term Electric Utility Planning using @RISK
Garrison Marr & Brian Booth
Snohomish Public Utility District

10:30 - 10:45
Networking Break with Refreshments
10:45 - 11:30
11:30 - 12:15

Modeling expected returns with Black-Litterman, in @RISK
Joseph Maas
Synergy Financial Management

12:15 - 1:00
1:00 - 1:15
Closing Remarks


  Brian Booth

Senior Manager of Rates, Economics, & Energy Risk Management
Snohomish Public Utility District

Brian Booth is Senior Manager of Rates, Economics, & Energy Risk Management at Snohomish Public Utility District. He manages the utility’s Cost of Service and rate design efforts along with the load forecasting and short-term energy risk management programs. Brian has a BS in Economics from Portland State University and an MBA from Washington State University.

  Joseph Maas

Chief Investment Officer
Synergy Financial Management

Joseph M. Maas, CFA, CFP®, CLU, ChFC, MSFS, CCIM, CVA, ABAR, CM&AA, is a versatile financial advisor with decades of experience serving insurance and financial services professionals and helping them grow their independent practice. As Chief Investment Officer of Synergy Financial Management, LLC, Joe’s diverse investment experience ensures the careful management of daily operations and diligent responsibility for the firm’s portfolio management, strategic and tactical asset allocation, securities analysis, quantitative, fundamental, and statistical research, economic analysis, compliance, financial planning, risk management, business consulting, and financial modeling.

  Garrison Marr

Principal Utility Analyst
Snohomish Public Utility District

Garrison Marr is a Principal Utility Analyst at Snohomish Public Utility District where he contributes to the management of power supply budgets and contracts, long and short-term planning, and resource evaluation. Previously, Garrison held roles in corporate energy management, sustainability, and housing development. Garrison has a BA in Economics from Western Washington University and an MPA in Financial Management from the University of Illinois at Chicago.

  Fernando Hernández

Senior Consultant and Trainer

Fernando Hernández' areas of expertise are banking, finance, manufacturing, project evaluation, market forecasting and pricing. Fernando currently owns and operates InfoMasters, a company geared towards training, consulting and developing financial applications and decision making models for financial and manufacturing companies, using Microsoft Office and Palisade software. He has developed and taught courses including Intro to Corporate Finance, and Financial Simulation and Investment Decisions. Since 1992, he has created financial models, risk analyses and feasibility studies using @RISK. Fernando earned his licentiate degree in Finance Administration from the University of Costa Rica. As a Fulbright scholar, he completed his MBA at Indiana University majoring in Finance & MIS.

  Lisa Stensby

Project Control Specialist
Value Managment Strategies

Lisa Stensby is a Project Control Specialist at Value Management Strategies, Inc. (VMS), a management consulting firm based in Escondido, CA. Lisa has extensive experience supporting qualitative and quantitative risk analysis for mega projects in the public sector. Her specialization is in risk assessment for infrastructure and transit construction projects of varying scale and scope. She has a strong background in process related knowledge, based on work experience that includes value analysis, portfolio development, software development, and project/program scheduling and reporting. Lisa holds a master’s degree in International Management from Portland State University.


  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Fernando Hernández

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst's toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Long-Term Utility Planning using @RISK

Garrison Marr
Brian Booth
Snohomish Public Utility District

Electric utilities must plan the acquisition of future generating or conservation resources far in advance in order to ensure that electricity is available from the utility’s portfolio of resources when customer’s need it. In the Pacific Northwest, the high concentration of generating fuels like wind and hydro can introduce uncertainty to the performance of a utility’s existing portfolio. To better understand the needs of the Snohomish Public Utility District, analysts used @Risk to create a Probabilistic Load Resource Balance Model, simulating the possible combinations of customer loads and portfolio generation and resulting energy needs over time. Data outputs from the Load Resource Balance Model fed a Portfolio Optimization Model which utilized @Risk’s RiskOptimizer, which solved for the most cost-effective portfolio of new and existing resources to meet customer needs under a variety of possible scenarios.

  Calibrating Risk Models Utilizing Subject Matter Exeperts During Risk Assessments

Lisa Stensby
Value Management Strategies

Calibrating risk models often requires participation from subject matter experts during risk assessments to achieve efficacy and reliability in risk models. Their expertise can be a crucial input for assessing and integrating project uncertainties and risks into cost and schedule models to produce informed qualitative and quantitative assessments. If these experts are excluded from risk assessments it can lead to uninformed or misleading results.

This presentation will look at how to structure a risk assessment to include subject matter experts and what information needs to be communicated to allow them to be an effective resource during the assessment. Having the right individuals in the room can result in better understanding of potential impacts of risks and provide clear representation of probabilities and uncertainty ranging, which can lead to more informed analysis, and improved risk management and decision making.

  Modeling expected returns with Black-Litterman, in @RISK

Joseph Maas
Synergy Financial Management

In finance, the Black–Litterman model is a mathematical model for portfolio allocation developed in 1990 at Goldman Sachs by Fischer Black and Robert Litterman, and published in 1992. It seeks to overcome problems that institutional investors have encountered in applying modern portfolio theory in practice. In this presentation, we'll examine a Black-Litterman model using @RISK. The model starts with the equilibrium assumption that the asset allocation of a representative agent should be proportional to the market values of the available assets, and then modifies that to take into account the 'views' (i.e., the specific opinions about asset returns) of the investor in question to arrive at a final asset allocation.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Fernando Hernández

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimization models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

Hyatt Regency Bellevue

900 Bellevue Way NE
Bellevue, WA 98004
tel. +1 425 698 4248
For more information, see the hotel website.

130 East Seneca Street
Suite 505
Ithaca, NY 14850
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
Palisade アジア・
+81 3 5456 5287 tel
Palisade Latinoamérica
+1 607 277 8000 x318
+54-1152528795  Argentina
+56-25813492     Chile
+507-8365675     Panamá
+52 55 5350 2852     México
+511-7086781     Perú
+57-15085187     Colombia
Palisade Brasil
+55 (21) 3958 1443
+1 607 277 8000 x318 tel