Palisade Risk Conference

Best Practices in Risk and Decision Analysis

April 25th, 2018 • Austin

A Key Event for Quantitative Risk and Decision Analysis

Join Industry Leaders and Software Experts

Palisade invites you to an intensive half day risk and decision analysis conference. This is a “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry.

Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The program will also include practical software training presented by Palisade. We’ll explore the features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis accessible and powerful.

This event is free to attend and promises to be an invaluable opportunity for broadening one's knowledge of risk modeling, and networking with decision-making professionals.

Testimonials from Previous Conferences

“I came away from the conference very satisfied. The conference empowered me with future skill sets, allowed me to observe how other companies are using the tools, and I even made some very valuable contacts.”

Ron Webster, Senior Financial Risk Analyst, Eastman Chemical Company

“I enjoyed all of the hands-on sessions, and I gained new insights from the conference that I can use in my work.”

Ujjwal Bharadwaj, TWI Ltd

“As an introduction to the software, I thought this conference was eye-opening. As I get more familiar with the software, I can see future conferences being valuable in honing my skills and learning new tricks and different perspectives on using the software.”

Cory Forgrave, Economic Analyst in the DOI Division of Energy and Mineral Development

“Palisade is leading the way with tools and expertise to enable risk managers across all industries.”

Robert Lake, Cisco Systems

“Conference was very useful to improve our integrated quality management system. Statistical, stochastic and other quantitative methods are used, at the organisational and project levels, to predict future quality and process performance.”

Dr Vladimir Savin, Chief EQ Engineer, EPAM Systems

“We saw and discussed methods that directly apply to our problems, and learned to build upon them to come up with solutions.”

Michael Watson, PMP, Senior Staff Integrated Planning, Lockheed Martin

Networking Opportunities

Mingle and share ideas with other delegates, presenters, and Palisade staff. All networking events on the schedule are included with your complimentary registration.

Join a Global Group

The 2018 Palisade Risk Conference is part of a global, annual series of meetings where professionals share ideas and advance the practice of risk and decision analysis.

Information about 2018 Conferences


Wednesday 25 April 2018

Schedule is subject to change without notice.


8:00 - 8:30
Registration and Coffee
8:30 - 8:45

Jeff Evans

8:45 - 9:45

Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK
Gustavo Vinueza

9:45 - 10:30
10:30 - 10:45
Networking Break with Refreshments
10:45 - 11:30

Applying @RISK Monte Carlo Methods to Mechanical/Optical Tolerancing
Rick Metzbower
Design Engineering Services

11:30 - 12:15
12:15 - 12:30
Closing Remarks


  Rick Metzbower

Opto-Mechanical Engineer
Design Engineering Services

Rick has worked in the field of mechanical design for 37-years. Most recently as an Opto-Mechanical Engineering Advisor with Petroleum Geo-Services. At PGS he designed underwater fiber optic sensor systems. He holds patents for fiber optic sensors, including an accelerometer and hydrophone, and also the DWDM network enabling the distributed sensor system. Rick managed and analyzed the sensor system for reliability and loss using @RISK.

  Cheryl Tulkoff

Director of Corporate Quality
National Instruments

Cheryl has over 20 years of experience in electronics manufacturing focusing on failure analysis and reliability. She is passionate about applying her unique background to enable her stakeholders to maximize and accelerate product design and development while saving time, managing resources, and improving customer satisfaction.

Throughout her career, Cheryl has had extensive training experience and is a published author and a senior member of both ASQ and IEEE. She views teaching as a two-way process that enables her to impart her knowledge on to others as well as reinforce her own understanding and ability to explain complex concepts through student interaction. A passionate advocate of continued learning, Cheryl has taught electronics workshops that introduced her to fascinating companies, people, and cultures.

Cheryl has served as chairman of the IEEE Central Texas WIE and IEEE ASTR sections, is an ASQ Certified Reliability Engineer, an SMTA Speaker of Distinction and has served on ASQ, IPC and iNEMI committees.

Cheryl earned a Bachelor of Mechanical Engineering degree from Georgia Tech and a Master of Science in Technology Commercialization (MSTC) degree from the McCombs School of Business at the University of Texas at Austin.

In her free time, Cheryl loves to run! She’s had the good fortune to run everything from 5k’s to 100 milers including the Boston Marathon, the Tahoe Triple (three marathons in 3 days) and the nonstop Rocky Raccoon 100 miler. She also enjoys travel and has visited 46 US states and over 20 countries around the world. Cheryl combines these two passions in what she calls “running tourism” which lets her quickly get her bearings and see the sights in new places.

  Gustavo Vinueza

Training Consultant

Gustavo Vinueza is a Systems Engineer with more than 16 years of experience consulting for companies in finance & banking, telecommunications, insurance, and IT related services. Gustavo has worked with Palisade since 2011 as a Training Consultant and in the last year as Director of Custom Solutions. He earned his MBA from Torcuato Di Tella University in Argentina and a MS in Finance from Adolfo Ibáñez University in Chile. His main focuses are in financial and operational modeling, including scientific and academic research into business practice as well as data mining related matters.

His experience includes managing project portfolios (both operational and IT related), cost reduction programs, public purchases bidding, operational controls, capacity analysis, audit processes and software development projects, beside technological infrastructure implementation. He has also earned diplomas in Project Management, Usability, Business Process Management and Business Analytics.


  Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using @RISK

Gustavo Vinueza

This presentation will use examples from different industries and applications to give an entry-level introduction to @RISK, as well as showing how the new features in the latest releases add additional capabilities to the analyst's toolbox. We'll also shine a light on some of the lesser-known corners of the software, to provide useful tips about how to make risk modelling even easier.

  Predicting the Customer Experience: Using @RISK to Model & Manage Warranty Returns

Cheryl Tulkoff
National Instruments

Preliminary results of a joint project between Palisade and National Instruments (NI) to develop a warranty returns model and systems calculator will be shared.

The model incorporates hundreds of products over a four year time period and can be used for warranty prediction as well as for setting Statistical Process Control limits on charts set up to monitor field performance. The systems level calculator enables NI to combine individual products into more complex systems to predict the multi-product customer experience.

  Applying @RISK Monte Carlo Methods to Mechanical/Optical Tolerancing

Rick Metzbower
Design Engineering Services

@RISK is commonly thought of as a tool to manage financial and schedule risk on complex projects or operations. In these areas deterministic analysis does not always yield a satisfactory or workable answer. Similarly, in engineering design to a deterministic solution may not be the best solution or may not offer needed insights into potential issues. For instance, in a FTTH (Fiber-To-The-Home) network a deterministic approach would lead the engineer to calculate either a worst-case optical loss value or perhaps a best-case optical loss value or a nominal optical loss value. In a system with hundreds or thousands of elements these values could be wildly divergent. Which value does the responsible engineer use? How does the engineer decide the most likely scenario?

In this presentation we will look at ways to apply @RISK to a simple mechanical system to gain insight into the range of expected scenarios. We will also discuss how this could apply to other mechanical, electrical and optical systems.

  Introduction to Optimization, Decision Trees, and Sensitivity Analysis using The DecisionTools Suite

Gustavo Vinueza

Palisade's DecisionTools Suite package provides a number of different tools for risk and decision analysis. In addition to @RISK, popular tools in the set include TopRank, a powerful program which allows fast and easy sensitivity analysis on any Excel model, PrecisionTree which allows users to build decision trees for evaluating options, and Evolver/RISKOptimizer for building optimization models. In this presentation, we will look at some example models that demonstrate the capabilities of each of these tools.

National Instruments

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