Variability exists everywhere, yet projects are commonly planned as though variability does not exist. Probabilistic project estimation uses more realistic estimates of variation. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to “execute” the project thousands of times, creating prediction confidence intervals that allow us to answer many common “what if” questions.

Typical, PERT and probabilistic approaches to project estimation are discussed in this focused session, demonstrating the pros and cons of each. An example is then provided to demonstrate the use of probabilistic project estimation during the Concept stage of the Design for Six Sigma Concept - Design - Optimize – Verify ( CDOV ) product development process.