The use of The DecisionTools Suite in Probabilistic Cost Estimating for Environmental Asset Retirement Obligations

This free live webcast will demonstrate using the DecisionTools suite in financial risk quantification (RQ) for environmental remediation and site cleanup efforts. The session will consist of three segments: RQ Drivers, RQ Techniques and Resources, RQ Examples and Lessons Learned.

First, I will describe the various drivers for risk quantification including financial accrual estimates, SEC FIN 47 compliance, environmental insurance placements, merger & acquisition support, and PRP group negotiations, corporate and trust dissolution and liability transfer mechanism origination. The ASTM guidance and FASB interpretation will be discussed.

Then I will discuss alternative approaches to and resources available for RQ. Types of uncertainties including regulatory, site, contaminant and technological uncertainties will be described and discussed. Resources for defining limits on uncertainties including costing will be presented. The use of expert panels will be discussed. Decision trees as a RQ tool will be described and examples presented. Publicly available and proprietary commercial data bases of unit costs will be presented. The use of the DecisionTools Suite and @RISK will be discussed.

Finally I will present three cases where RQ was applied to environmental cleanup projects and site portfolios. Example A will be a munitions site in California with impact on public water supplies. Examples B will the asset retirement obligation estimate for a transportation company. Example C will be the estimate of a large sediment remediation and the impact of a trust dissolution effort. Time will be allocated to Q&A at the end of the free live webcast.