Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite: Three Day Course: (8023/AACEI Three)

The 3 day @RISK-specific training employs simple examples to present modeling techniques and the capability of the software, as well as simulation analysis. By the end of the course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using the @RISK software. Two days provides a sound introduction to @RISK. Day 3 covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite.

Days 1 and 2 are identical to the stand-alone course “Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK”.  Participants with previous knowledge of @RISK may attend day 3 only, at their discretion.

Day 3 covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite.  We cover PrecisionTree to perform decision-tree analysis, and RISKOptimizer and Evolver for optimisation problems.  We then discuss TopRank to support the auditing of models and to conduct sensitivity analysis, and use StatTools to perform a selection of statistical procedures, and NeuralTools to make predictions based on historic data.

Day 1
Introduction

  1. Overview of Palisade Corporation
  2. Course Overview
  3. Introduction to Risk Assessment
    1. Concept
    2. Statistics and Probability
    3. Probability Distributions – common functions
    4. Monte Carlo Simulation
  4. @RISK Interface
  5. Developing a Simple Model

Viewing Simulation Results Using @RISK 5

  1. MC Simulation of Simple Model
  2. Viewing Results Summary
    1. Distributions
    2. Statistics
  3. @RISK Reports
    1. Detailed Statistics
    2. Data
  4. @RISK Analyses
    1. Sensitivity
    2. Scenarios
  5. Sharing Simulation Results
    1. Excel Reports
    2. Stats Functions, etc.
    3. @RISK Library
  6. Sharing Model Information
    1. Swap Function
    2. RiskTemplate
  7. Additional @RISK Features
  8. Advanced Analyses

Day 2
Correlation and Interdependence

  1. Correlating Risk Inputs
    1. Impact
    2. Simple Calculation Example
  2. Correlation Methodology
    1. Pearson
    2. Rank
    3. Application
  3. Time Dependent Risk
    1. Impact
    2. Application
    3. Time Series Correlation

Selecting Distributions

  1. Introduction
  2. Expanded Distribution Selection
    1. Bootstrap Method
  3. Distribution Fitting
    1. Interface
    2. Fit Manager
    3. Linking Data
  4. Expert Opinion
    1. Alternate Parameters
    2. Judgment and Bias
  5. @RISK Library

Comprehensive @RISK Example


Review of Additional Example Models


Day 3
Decision-making and Optimization using PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer and Evolver

  1. Modeling decisions under uncertainty using PrecisionTree
  2. Hands-on example using cumulative pay-off trees
  3. Sensitivity analysis
  4. Introduction to other aspects of PrecisionTree (use with @RISK, non-cumulative trees, other features)
  5. RISKOptimizer to conduct optimization under uncertainty
  6. The use of Evolver to perform optimization

 Model Auditing, and Predictive and Statistical Analysis using TopRank, StatTools and NeuralTools

    • Using TopRank to find model inputs and perform sensitivity analysis
    • A selection of statistical procedures using StatTools (hands-on examples from correlation, time-series forecasting, multiple regression)
    • Introduction to predictive modeling using NeuralTools (hands-on examples with numerical and categorical variables)


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