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Project Cost Estimation and Schedule Risk using @RISK (8023/AACEI Three)

This hands-on course is designed for anyone who performs risk or decision analysis as part of their work, and applies to all industries and modelling requirements in the field of Projects and Project Management. Using common examples such as project cost models and simple schedules to help explain the software and techniques, the knowledge gained can be applied to any project application involving uncertainty in the MS Excel and Project environments.

Attendees will be introduced to the concepts and methods necessary to develop a risk assessment and to make a defensible decision under uncertainty using Palisade Corporation software. Discover how to translate a deterministic Excel analysis into an @RISK model that uses Monte Carlo simulation to quantify exposure to risk. A Risk Register will be created with the focus on how to build a technically correct model that provides useful information to project managers and decision makers. The importance of interdependent relationships among variables is discussed, as well as how to implement these relationships in spreadsheet models. Several key modelling concepts will be introduced, including the creation of report templates. Examples will be presented and built which will demonstrate how to effectively use the software and interpret the results.

Attendees will also explore @RISK’s interface between MS Project and Excel, allowing them to perform risk analysis on schedules within Excel itself. Please note that the course does not extend to the creation of schedules in MS Project itself. Several pre-prepared examples will be used.

Prerequisites


  1. Some experience of building models with Excel.
    Minimum requirements include knowledge and experience of the following:
    • Opening, saving and closing Excel files
    • Entering data and creating formulae
    • Copying formulae, using relative and absolute referencing, range names
    • Formatting cells
  2. Strongly Recommended—completion of applicable software tutorials on the Palisade web site
  3. Recommended — some familiarity with basic statistics

Course Agenda


Day 1

  • Introduction to Simulation
  • Exploring @RISK
  • Adding uncertainty to deterministic models
  • Parameterising cost and event models
  • The ‘right’ distribution
  • Simulating and simulation settings
  • Output and results interpretation

Day 2
  • Sensitivity analysis
  • Reporting simulation results in Excel
  • Risk Register modelling
  • Integration with MS Project for schedule uncertainty

Day 3
  • Integration with MS Project (continued)
  • Correlating input variables
  • Combining Cost, Risk and Opportunity models
  • Integration with MS Project for schedule uncertainty

Program Level: Intermediate

Prerequisites: Familiarity with Microsoft Excel. No Advanced Preparation required.

These courses are Group Live Offerings. Credits available per hour of instruction: 1 CPE credit (available for US courses only), 1 PMI Professional Development Unit, 1 PDH toward AACEI certification.


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Palisade Corporation
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800 432 RISK (US/Can)
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