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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite Three Day Course (8023/AACEI Three)

The 3 day training employs simple examples to present modeling techniques and the capability of the software, as well as simulation analysis. By the end of the course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using the @RISK software. Two days provides a sound introduction to @RISK. Day 3 covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite.

Days 1 and 2 are identical to the stand-alone course “Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK”.  Participants with previous knowledge of @RISK may attend day 3 only, at their discretion.

Day 3 covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite.  We cover PrecisionTree to perform decision-tree analysis, and RISKOptimizer and Evolver for optimisation problems.  We then discuss TopRank to support the auditing of models and to conduct sensitivity analysis, and use StatTools to perform a selection of statistical procedures, and NeuralTools to make predictions based on historic data.

Please note: Participants bring their own laptops. (No laptops are provided.)

Day 1:

9am-5pm

An introduction to risk analysis using @RISK, including adding uncertainty to models and interpreting output.

  1. Introduction to Probability, Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistics
  2. Exploring the @RISK environment
  3. Adding uncertainty to deterministic models
  4. Simulating and simulation settings
  5. Output and results interpretation
  6. Reporting simulation results in Excel
  7. Discrete distributions

Day 2:

9am-5pm

Extends on the concepts of the first day, including making defensible distribution selections, correlation and decision modelling.

  1. Model logic
  2. Choosing the ‘right’ distribution
  3. Fitting distributions to data
  4. Justifying expert opinion using Alternate Parameters
  5. Policy comparison
  6. Correlation – its importance and implementation
  7. Special @RISK functions

Day 3:

9am-5pm

Decision-making and Optimization using PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer and Evolver

  1. Modeling decisions under uncertainty using PrecisionTree
  2. Hands-on example using cumulative pay-off trees
  3. Sensitivity analysis
  4. Introduction to other aspects of PrecisionTree (use with @RISK, non-cumulative trees, other features)
  5. RISKOptimizer to conduct optimization under uncertainty
  6. The use of Evolver to perform optimization

 Model Auditing, and Predictive and Statistical Analysis using TopRank, StatTools and NeuralTools

    • Using TopRank to find model inputs and perform sensitivity analysis
    • A selection of statistical procedures using StatTools (hands-on examples from correlation, time-series forecasting, multiple regression)
    • Introduction to predictive modeling using NeuralTools (hands-on examples with numerical and categorical variables)

Program Level: Intermediate

Prerequisites: Familiarity with Microsoft Excel. No Advanced Preparation required.

These courses are Group Live Offerings. Credits available per hour of instruction: 1 CPE credit (available for US courses only), 1 PMI Professional Development Unit, 1 PDH toward AACEI certification.


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Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
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