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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
(8023/AACEI Two)

This hands-on course is designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, with all industries and modelling requirements catered to. While mainly using common examples such as project cost estimation and discounted cash flow models to help explain the software and techniques, the knowledge gained can be applied to any application involving uncertainty.

Attendees will be introduced to the concepts and methods necessary to develop a risk assessment and to make a defensible decision under uncertainty using Palisade Corporation software. Discover how to translate deterministic Excel analysis into an @RISK model that can be used to quantify exposure and test mitigation strategies. The importance of correlation is discussed, as well as how to implement it in spreadsheet models. Business and modelling decisions will be compared using special @RISK functions and charts. Several key modelling concepts will be introduced, as well as creating report templates. Examples will be presented and created which will demonstrate how to effectively use the software and to interpret the results.

Please note that this course does not cover @RISK for Project.

Prerequisites:


  1. Some experience of building models with Excel
    Minimum requirements include knowledge and experience of the following:
    • Opening, saving and closing Excel files
    • Entering data and creating formula
    • Copying formulae, using relative and absolute referencing, range names
    • Formatting cells
  2. Recommended—completion of applicable software tutorials on the Palisade web site
  3. Recommended—some familiarity with basic statistics

Day 1:

9am-5pm

An introduction to risk analysis using @RISK, including adding uncertainty to models and interpreting output.

  1. Introduction to Probability, Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistics
  2. Exploring the @RISK environment
  3. Adding uncertainty to deterministic models
  4. Simulating and simulation settings
  5. Output and results interpretation
  6. Reporting simulation results in Excel
  7. Discrete distributions

Day 2:

9am-5pm

Extends on the concepts of the first day, including making defensible distribution selections, correlation and decision modelling.

  1. Model logic
  2. Choosing the ‘right’ distribution
  3. Fitting distributions to data
  4. Justifying expert opinion using Alternate Parameters
  5. Policy comparison
  6. Correlation – its importance and implementation
  7. Special @RISK functions

Program Level: Intermediate

Prerequisites: Familiarity with Microsoft Excel. No Advanced Preparation required.

These courses are Group Live Offerings. Credits available per hour of instruction: 1 CPE credit (available for US courses only), 1 PMI Professional Development Unit, 1 PDH toward AACEI certification.


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Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050 salesEMEA@palisade.com
salesIndia@palisade.com
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
salesAP@palisade.com
Palisade アジア・
パシフィック東京事務所
+81 3 5456 5287 tel
sales.jp@palisade.com
www.palisade.com/jp/
Palisade Latinoamérica
+1 607 277 8000 x318
+54-1152528795  Argentina
+56-25813492 Chile
+507-8365675 Panamá
+52 55 5350 2852 México
+511-7086781 Perú
+57-15085187 Colombia
servicioalcliente@palisade.com
ventas@palisade.com
www.palisade-lta.com
Palisade Brasil
+55 (21) 3958 1443
+1 607 277 8000 x318 tel
vendas@palisade.com
www.palisade-br.com