Risk and Decision Assessment Training Using @RISK 5.0

This hands-on course is designed to introduce attendees to the concepts and methods necessary to develop a risk assessment and to make a defensible decision under uncertainty, using Palisade Corporation software. Attendees will discover how to translate their deterministic Excel analysis into an @RISK model that can be used to quantify exposure and test mitigation strategies. They will also learn how to use other elements of @RISK 5.0 Industrial, including BestFit and RiskOptimiser. The importance of correlation is discussed, as well as how to include it in spreadsheet models. Decisions will be optimised under uncertainty using Palisade’s powerful genetic algorithm simulator/solver, RiskOptimiser. Several key modelling concepts will be introduced, as well as creating report templates. Examples will be presented which will demonstrate how to effectively use the software and to interpret the results.

A new feature of the training is a Practical Modelling Session. This is an opportunity for attendees to discuss their models with a Palisade consultant, adding the new techniques and concepts learned in the seminar. Attendees who are not yet up to this stage will begin to design the models they will use going forward. The workshop is also a chance to solidify any of the concepts covered in the seminar.

Please note that this course does not cover @RISK for Project.

Prerequisites:
   1. Some experience of building models with Excel
      Minimum requirements include knowledge and experience of the following:
          * Opening, saving and closing Excel files
          * Entering data and creating formula
          * Copying formulae, using relative and absolute referencing, range names
          * Formatting cells
          * Creation of basic graphics (XY scatter plots and line graphs)
   2. Recommended—completion of applicable software tutorials on the Palisade web site
   3. Recommended—some familiarity with basic statistics

Day 1:

An introduction to risk analysis using @RISK 5.0, including adding uncertainty to models and interpreting output.

    1. Introduction to Probability, Monte Carlo Simulation and Statistics
    2. Exploring the @RISK environment
    3. Adding uncertainty to deterministic models
    4. Simulating and simulation settings
    5. Output and results interpretation
    6. Special @RISK functions
    7. Choosing the ‘right’ distribution

Day 2:

Extends on the concepts of the first day, including making defensible distribution selections, correlation and optimisation.

    1. Model logic
    2. Using BestFit to select distributions
    3. Justifying expert opinion
    4. Correlation – its importance and implementation
    5. Policy comparison using RiskSimtable
    6. Report Templates
    7. Making the best decision with RiskOptimiser
    8. Practical Modelling Session

» 16 CPE credits
» Palisade Corporation
» Seminar Schedule