Risk & Decision Assessment using The DecisionTools Suite 5.0, Part 1
DecisionTools Suite 5.0 Industrial

Part I of our DecisionTools Suite training consists of two 4-hour sessions spread over 2 days. The DecisionTools Suite training employs simple examples to present modeling techniques and the capability of the software, as well as simulation analysis. By the end of the course, attendees should be able to perform defensible risk assessments using @RISK, PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer, TopRank and StatTools.

Risk & Decision Assessment Using The DecisionTools Suite 5.0, Part I

Introduction

  1. Overview of Palisade Corporation
  2. Course Overview
  3. Introduction to Risk and Decision Assessment
    1. Concept
    2. Statistics and Probability
      1. Using StatTools for data analysis
        1. Highlight basic statistical characteristics
    3. Probability Distributions – common functions
      1. Discrete distributions
        1. Bernouli
        2. Binomial
        3. Discrete
        4. Poisson
      2. Continuous distributions
        1. Normal
        2. Lognormal
        3. Triangular
        4. PERT
        5. General
    4. Monte Carlo Simulation
      1. Sampling method
      2. Latin Hypercube
    5. Decision Analysis
      1. Maximum value
      2. Criteria
  4. Developing a Case Study scenario

Building A Decision

Using PrecisionTree

  1. Laying out options for the case study model
  2. Simple analysis of outcomes
    • Interpreting tree results
      1. Calculation method
      2. Value assessment
      1. Statistics
  3. Sensitivity Analysis
    1. One-Way
    2. Two-Way
  1. Assessment

Building A Scenario Analysis Model

Using TopRank

  1. Structuring the Excel model
  2. Defining What-If parameters
    • Analysis Settings
    • Adding Outputs
  3. What-If Sensitivity Analysis
    • Reports
    • Detail
  4. Assessment

Converting A Scenario Model To A Simulation Model
Using @RISK

  1. Revising the Excel model
    • Estimates
    • Data
    • Distributions
    • Outputs
  2. Simulating the model
    • Settings
      1. Convergence
      2. RNG and seed use
  3. Viewing Results Summary
    • Distributions
    • Statistics
  4. @RISK Reports
    • Detailed Statistics
    • Data
  5. @RISK Analyses
    • Sensitivity
    • Scenarios
  6. Sharing Preliminary Simulation Results
    • Excel Reports
    • Stats Functions, etc.
    • @RISK Library
  7. Sharing Model Information
    • Swap Function
    • Template