Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite: Three Day Course (8023/AACEI Three)
This three-day course aims to provide participants with hands-on experience and the analytic tools to conduct risk analysis using The DecisionTools Suite, demonstrated across a range of applications.
Days 1 and 2 are designed to introduce attendees to the concepts and methods necessary to develop a risk assessment and to make a defensible decision under uncertainty, using @RISK for Excel. Attendees will discover how to translate their deterministic Excel analysis into an @RISK model that can be used to quantify exposure and test mitigation strategies. The importance of correlation is discussed, as well as how to include it in spreadsheet models. Business and modelling decisions will be compared using special @RISK functions and charts. Several key modelling concepts will be introduced, as well as creating report templates. Examples will be presented which will demonstrate how to effectively use the software and to interpret the results.
The Practical Modelling session on Day 2 is an opportunity for attendees to discuss their models with a Palisade consultant, adding the new techniques and concepts learned in the seminar. Attendees who are not yet up to this stage will begin to design the models they will use going forward. The workshop is also a chance to solidify any of the concepts covered in the first two days of the training.
Day 3 covers the other products in the DecisionTools Suite. We cover PrecisionTree to perform decision-tree analysis, and RISKOptimizer and Evolver for optimisation problems. We then examine TopRank to support the auditing of models and to conduct sensitivity analysis, and use StatTools to perform a selection of statistical procedures, and NeuralTools to make predictions based on historic data. Finally a “case study” is presented showing how the different elements in the Suite can be combined to form a comprehensive risk and decision assessment solution for a single project.
Days 1 and 2 are identical to the stand-alone course “Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK”. Participants with previous knowledge of @RISK may attend day 3 only, at their discretion. To register for Day 3 only, please contact the Palisade Asia-Pacific office directly at 61 2 9929 9799 or 1 800 177 101 (Australia), or sales@palisade.com.au.
Please note that this course does not cover @RISK for Project.
Prerequisites:
1. Some experience of building models with Excel
Minimum requirements include knowledge and experience of the following:
* Opening, saving and closing Excel files
* Entering data and creating formula
* Copying formulae, using relative and absolute referencing, range names
* Formatting cells
* Creation of basic graphics (XY scatter plots and line graphs)
2. Recommended—completion of applicable software tutorials on the Palisade web site
3. Recommended—some familiarity with basic statistics
Day 1:
An introduction to risk analysis using @RISK 5.0, including adding uncertainty to models and interpreting output.
Day 2:
Extends on the concepts of the first day, including making defensible distribution selections, correlation and advanced reporting, as well as working with your own models.
Day 3:
Introduces the other elements of the DecisionTools Suite. Key topics include modelling decisions under uncertainty and sensitivity analysis with PrecisionTree, combining @RISK with PrecisionTree, RISKOptimizer for conducting optimisation under uncertainty, and model auditing and sensitivity analysis with TopRank. The day concludes with a large scale “case study” highlighting the use of the entire Suite on a single project.
Credits available:
» 24 PDH toward AACEI certification
» 24 CPE