@RISK
Risk analysis using Monte Carlo Simulation
The Future in Your Spreadsheet

Wouldn’t you like to know the chances of making money – or taking a loss — on your next venture? Or the likelihood that your project will finish on time and within budget? How about the probabilities of finding oil or gas, and in what amounts?

Everyone would like answers to these types of questions. Armed with that kind of information, you could take a lot of guesswork out of big decisions and plan strategies with confidence. With @RISK®, you can answer these questions and more – right in your Excel spreadsheet.

@RISK (pronounced “at risk”) performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your spreadsheet model—and tells you how likely they are to occur. It mathematically and objectively computes and tracks many different possible future scenarios, then tells you the probabilities and risks associated with each different one. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty.

@RISK also helps you plan the best risk management strategies through the integration of RISKOptimizer, which combines Monte Carlo simulation with the latest solving technology to optimize any spreadsheet with uncertain values.  Using genetic algorithms or OptQuest, along with @RISK functions, RISKOptimizer can determine the best allocation of resources, the optimal asset allocation, the most efficient schedule, and much more.

@RISK is also available in Spanish, Portuguese, German, French, Russian, Japanese, and Chinese.

New in Version 7.5 – Better Reporting,
Faster Performance, More Analytics

@RISK 7.5 offers a range of improvements for any decision maker, from general use enhancements to new, specialized analytical features. New and enhanced graphing options, faster performance, and sophisticated analytics make @RISK 7.5 the only risk analysis tool you’ll need.

New and Improved Tornado Graphs
Tornado graphs have long been used to identify the critical variables affecting a risk analysis. Version 7.5 adds a new graph type called Contribution to Variance which shows the amount of the variance in the output attributable to each input variable. In addition, you can now overlay tornado graphs from multiple simulations to compare the effects of model changes. Lastly, we’ve added shading options on the graph bars to indicate whether inputs are high or low when the output increases or decreases.

Faster Optimization with RISKOptimizer
RISKOptimizer, available in @RISK Industrial, is a powerful tool that allows you to optimize linear and nonlinear problems in uncertain situations. It combines optimization with Monte Carlo simulation, and is very computationally intensive. New version 7.5 now runs at least four times faster than previous versions!

Over 20 New @RISK Functions
Sixteen new distribution functions have been added to @RISK, along with six new statistical functions. The new functions are important for accurate, insightful modeling of uncertainty in finance, insurance, reliability, and other applications.

Run Optimizations During Simulation Without Coding
If you need to run Excel Solver during an @RISK simulation, you can now do so without writing any VBA code, saving you time. Version 7.5 makes this easy to set up via dialog box, and it works for Excel Goals Seek and Palisade's Evolver as well.

Graphing and Reporting Improvements
All @RISK graphs and reports now feature an updated, more streamlined interface, as well as support for Excel’s built-in themes and colors. Now you can apply your company’s standard Excel themes to your @RISK reports! In addition, graphical displays have been improved for ultra-high resolution monitors.

And More
You can now control the number of CPUs @RISK uses to run simulations. We’ve also added easy access to @RISK statistics functions in the Model and Summary Results windows, saving you time in modeling.

@RISK Industries & Applications

@RISK is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from @RISK.

INDUSTRY SAMPLE APPLICATION
FINANCE / SECURITIES
» Models
» Case Studies
Retirement planning
Currency valuation
Real options analysis
Discounted Cash Flow analysis
Value-at-risk
Portfolio optimization
INSURANCE / REINSURANCE
» Models
» Case Studies
Loss reserves estimation
Premium pricing

OIL / GAS / ENERGY
» Models
» Case Studies

Exploration and production
Oil reserves estimation
Capital project estimation
Pricing
Regulation compliance
SIX SIGMA / QUALITY ANALYSIS
» Details and Models
» Case Studies

Manufacturing quality control
Customer service improvement
DMAIC
DFSS / DOE
Lean Six Sigma
MANUFACTURING
» Case Studies

Six Sigma and quality analysis
New product analysis
Production siting
Plant shutdown
Product life cycle analysis
PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE
» Case Studies

New product analysis
R&D estimation
Disease infection estimation
ENVIRONMENT
» Case Studies
Endangered species preservation
Pollution cleanup and projections
GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE
» Case Studies

Resource allocation
War games
Welfare and budgetary projections
AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION
» Case Studies
Cost estimating
Highway planning and optimization
Supply chain distribution

How @RISK Works

Running an analysis with @RISK involves three simple steps:

1. Set Up Your Model. Start by replacing uncertain values in your spreadsheet with @RISK probability distribution functions, like Normal or Uniform, or dozens of others. These @RISK functions simply represent a range of different possible values that a cell could take instead of limiting it to just one case. Choose your distribution from a graphical gallery, or define distributions using historical data for a given input. Even combine distributions with @RISK’s Compound function. Share specific distribution functions with others using the @RISK Library, or swap out @RISK functions for colleagues who don’t have @RISK.

See the @RISK distribution palette

Next, select your outputs—the "bottom line" cells whose values interest you. This could be potential profits, ROI, insurance claims payout, disease recovery rate, or anything at all.

Define Uncertainty with Ease
@RISK comes with dozens of distribution functions for defining uncertain variables. These are true Excel functions, behaving the same way as Excel’s native functions and giving you total modeling flexibility. Choosing which @RISK distribution function to use is easy because @RISK comes with a graphical distribution gallery that lets you preview and compare various distributions before selecting them. You can even set up your distributions using percentiles as well as standard parameters, and overlay different distribution graphs for comparison. You can use historical or industry data and @RISK’s integrated data fitting tool BestFit® to select the best distribution function and the right parameters. You can select the type of data to be fit (e.g. continuous. discrete, or cumulative), filter the data, specify distribution types to be fit and specify Chi-Squared binning to be used. Fitted distributions are ranked based on three statistical tests, and may be compared graphically. You can even overlay graphs of multiple fitted distributions. Fit results can be linked to @RISK functions, so the functions will update automatically when input data changes.

Input distributions may be correlated with one another, individually or in a time series. Correlations are quickly defined in matrices that pop up over Excel, and a Correlated Time Series can be added in a single click. A Correlated Time Series is created from a multi-period range that contains a set of similar distributions in each time period.

All @RISK functions and correlations in your model are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Model window, and you can watch distribution graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

Share Your Model with Others
@RISK functions can be stored in the @RISK Library, a SQL database for sharing with other @RISK users. @RISK functions may also be removed with the Function Swap feature, enabling your models be to shared with colleagues who don’t have @RISK installed. @RISK will keep track of any changes that occur in the spreadsheet while the @RISK functions were “swapped out.” You can control how @RISK should update formulas when it finds changes in the model. In addition, you can have @RISK automatically swap out functions when a workbook is saved and closed and automatically swap in if necessary when a workbook is opened.

2. Run the Simulation. Click the Simulate button and watch. @RISK recalculates your spreadsheet model thousands of times. Each time, @RISK samples random values from the @RISK functions you entered, places them in your model, and records the resulting outcome. Explain the process to others by running your simulation in Demo Mode, with graphs and reports updating live as the simulation runs.

See simulation in progress

3. Understand Your Risks. The result of a simulation is a look at a whole range of possible outcomes, including the probabilities they will occur. Graph your results with histograms, Scatter Plots, cumulative curves, Box Plots, and more. Identify critical factors with Tornado charts and sensitivity analysis. Paste results into Excel, Word, or PowerPoint, or place them in the @RISK Library for other @RISK users. You can even save results and charts right inside your Excel workbook.

See sampling of @RISK graphs

Clear, Easy-to-Understand Results
@RISK provides a wide range of graphs for interpreting and presenting your results to others. Histograms and cumulative curves show the probability of different outcomes occurring. Use overlay graphs to compare multiple results, and summary graphs and Box Plots to see risk and trends over time or over ranges. Right-click menus and handy toolbars make navigation a snap. All graphs are fully customizable—including titles, axes, scaling, colors, and more—and ready for export to Excel, Word, or PowerPoint. You can watch results graphs pop up as you browse through cells in your spreadsheet.

@RISK provides you with sensitivity and scenario analyses to determine the critical factors in your models. Use sensitivity analysis to rank the distribution functions in your model according to the impact they have on your outputs. See the results clearly with an easy-to-interpret Tornado diagram, or uncover relationships with Scatter Plots. Sensitivity analysis pre-screens all inputs based on their precedence in formulas to outputs in your model, thus reducing irrelevant data. In addition, you can use @RISK’s Make Input function to select a formula whose value will be treated as an @RISK input for sensitivity analysis. In this way, multiple distributions can be combined into a single input, streamlining your sensitivity reports.

All simulation results for both outputs and inputs are summarized—with thumbnail graphs—in the dashboard-style @RISK Results Summary window. Simulation results may be saved directly in your Excel workbook, and also placed in the @RISK Library to for sharing with other @RISK users.

Excel Ease of Use

@RISK is a true add-in to Microsoft Excel, integrating completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze—while never leaving Excel. All @RISK functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. @RISK windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. @RISK graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and the @RISK toolbar make learning and navigating @RISK a snap.

Two Editions to Meet Your Needs
@RISK Industrial Pro
Advanced Simulation Engine
Support for 2 CPUs or processor cores
Over 65 Built-in Distribution Functions
Integrated Distribution Gallery
Insert Function Command
@RISK Function Swap
Thumbnail Graphs
Compound and Six Sigma functions
Variety of Result Graphs and Charts
Customized Excel Reports
Live Updating During Simulation
Sensitivity & Scenario Analysis
Correlation of Inputs
Copulas
Freehand Distribution Artist
@RISK Data Viewer
Integrated Distribution Fitting
Integration with Microsoft Project
@RISK Library
Excel Developer Kit (XDK)
Stress Analysis
Advanced Sensitivity Analysis
@RISK Goal Seek
Full Multi-CPU Support
Simulation of Time-series Forecasts
RISKOptimizer

Optimization under uncertainty

Ranges for adjustable cells and constraints

Genetic algorithms

Six solving methods, including GAs and OptQuest

Efficient Frontier Analysis

RISKOptimizer Watcher

Convergence monitoring and genetic operators

Original, Best, Last model updating

Two Editions to Meet Your Needs

@RISK is available in two editions: Professional and Industrial.

@RISK Professional
Designed for professional-grade problems in any industry, @RISK Professional is perfect for most commercial uses. It provides a balance of advanced analysis and point-and-click ease of use, and includes:

• Integration with Microsoft Project: Perform risk analysis and Monte Carlo simulation on your Microsoft Project schedules using the more flexible @RISK for Excel interface. @RISK imports your Project schedules into Excel so that you can use all of Excel’s formulas, and @RISK’s features, on your Project models. Excel becomes a front-end for your Microsoft Project schedule, linking directly to the underlying .MPP(X) file. Changes made in either Project or Excel are reflected in the other. When it’s time to run your Monte Carlo simulation, Microsoft Project’s scheduling engine is used for the calculations, ensuring accuracy.
• Integrated distribution fitting with BestFit® : Defines distribution functions for you based on historical or industry data.
• @RISK Library: A SQL database for storing and sharing with others @RISK distribution functions, model components, and simulation results.
• Excel Developer Kit (XDK): Automate and customize @RISK for Excel through a complete library of commands and functions that let you control every aspect of @RISK in your spreadsheet. Add @RISK for Excel to any custom application.
• Stress Analysis: Lets you control the range that is sampled from a distribution function, enabling you to see how different scenarios affect your bottom line without changing your model.
• Advanced Sensitivity Analysis: Lets you see how changes in any input—distributions or regular values—affect simulation results.
• @RISK Goal Seek: Uses multiple simulations to find an input value that achieves a target simulation result you specify.

@RISK Industrial
Designed for your largest, most complex models, @RISK Industrial includes everything in @RISK Professional, plus the following:

• RISKOptimizer: Combines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization techniques to find the best combination of factors that lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions. Use RISKOptimizer for resource allocation, scheduling, investment, route planning, and other types of tricky problems where you need to determine the best combination of inputs to maximize a return, minimize a cost, or achieve a specific target.  RISKOptimizer uses genetic algorithms and Optquest solving methods so you’ll be sure to have the right engine for any type of problem.

» More about RISKOptimizer

• Simulation of Time-series Forecasts: @RISK offers a set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that change over time. Any future projection of time series values has inherent uncertainty, and @RISK lets you account for that uncertainty by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in your model. This is particularly useful in financial modeling and portfolio simulation. There are functions available for 17 different statistical time series models, including ARMA, GBM, GARCH, and others. These functions are entered as array functions in Excel. @RISK also provides new windows for fitting historical time series data to these new functions. The results can be animated to show the behavior of your time series during simulation. All this is integrated into the existing @RISK interface.
• Full Multi-CPU support: Speed up simulations with parallel processing by using all multi-core processors and available CPUs within a single machine.
@RISK Features & Benefits
FEATURES BENEFITS
Monte Carlo simulation Shows possible outcomes to avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities
100% Excel calculations for simulation

Highest level of accuracy, and maximum
use of multi-core processors for speed
INTERFACE
Seamless integration into Microsoft Excel Never leave your spreadsheet; get up to speed quickly
Intuitive toolbars and right-click menus Easy navigation—multiple ways to perform common tasks
MODELING
Distribution palette and Insert Function command Easy and accurate definition of uncertain factors
BestFit distribution fitting and Distribution Artist Use data and expert judgment to define uncertain factors
Over 65 built-in distribution functions

Represent virtually any uncertain
factor for accurate modeling
@RISK Function Swap

Remove (and later restore) @RISK functions for sharing models with non-@RISK users
Thumbnail Graphs

Graphically share input distributions and simulation results with non-@RISK users
Integration with Microsoft Project

Read Microsoft Project schedules into @RISK for Excel for risk modeling of any project with maximum flexibility
@RISK Library

Define, reuse, and share custom distributions and simulation results
Compound function

Combines two distributions into one to streamline
insurance or other large models
Percentile distribution parameters More flexible ways to define uncertainty
Correlation of inputs and correlation time series

Represent dependency between related
variables for accurate modeling
Copulas

Useful in the financial community, copulas provide sophisticated methods for correlating uncertain @RISK variables that allow more control over the correlation pattern
Simulation of Time-series forecasts

Understand the risks in values that change
over time
@RISK Data Viewer

Display any spreadsheet data using all @RISK charts and graphing options
SIMULATION
Demo Mode and live updating

Graphs and reports update during simulation for
illustration to others
Extensive settings control Customize simulations to specific needs
Multi-CPU Support

“Split up” large simulations to run on multiple CPUs or cores and reduce simulation run time
SIMULATION RESULTS
Fully customizable presentation-quality graphs

See the impact of risk and communicate to stakeholders
Reporting in Office

All graphs and charts can be exported to Excel,
Word, and PowerPoint in native chart format for
easy distribution to others
One-click Quick Reports

See summary of charts and graphs
pre-formatted for one page
Customized Excel Reports

Create exactly the simulation results reports you want directly in Excel, automatically formatted for optimal viewing. Apply Excel themes to your graphs.
Histograms, area, line, cumulative, summary,
box plot, and overlay graphs
Variety of graphing and charting options
for easy, accurate communication
Tornado charts and scatter plots

Visually identify critical factors and trends, overall and for particular scenarios
Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis

Identify the individual tasks that have the
most impact on results, and the particular
scenarios that lead to certain results
Six Sigma functions Report Six Sigma statistics for quality analysis
Multi-core processor and multiple CPU support Speed up simulations
OPTIMIZATION
RISKOptimizer Combines Monte Carlo simulation with sophisticated optimization techniques to find the best combination of factors that lead to a desired result under uncertain conditions
Efficient Frontier Analysis Especially useful in financial analysis, Efficient Frontiers determine the optimal return that can be expected from a portfolio at a given level of risk

@RISK for Six Sigma

@RISK can also be used in Six Sigma and quality analysis to improve processes, reduce variability, and enhance the quality of products and services, and save money. @RISK includes a range of Six Sigma statistics, functions, and reports. With these tools, you can identify, measure, and root out the causes of variability in your production and service processes and designs.

Part of the DecisionTools Suite

@RISK is available by itself or as part of the DecisionTools Suite, Palisade’s complete risk and decision analysis toolkit. The DecisionTools Suite includes @RISK, which adds risk analysis to Excel using Monte Carlo simulation, BigPicture for mindmapping and data exploration, PrecisonTree for visual decision tree analysis, TopRank for what-if analysis, NeuralTools and StatTools for data analysis, and more. @RISK is fully compatible with all DecisionTools programs and can be combined with them for greater insight and analysis. For example:

@RISK and TopRank
The focus of an @RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your @RISK analysis. @RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRank’s standard functions.

Watch how @RISK and TopRank work together

@RISK and PrecisionTree
In addition, @RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.

Watch how @RISK and PrecisionTree work together

@RISK then StatTools
@RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. @RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools time-series forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.

Watch how @RISK and StatTools work together

Save Over 50%

When you buy the DecisionTools Suite, you save over 50% versus buying all components individually. The best analyses at a great price–with the DecisionTools Suite.

Licensing and Training

@RISK is available through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network, and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of your investment.

100% Excel

@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results-and fast-using @RISK!

Compatibility: @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software is compatible with all 32-bit and 64-bit versions of Microsoft Windows XP through 10, Excel 2007 through 2016, and Project 2007 through 2016.

64-bit Compatible: 64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools software to access much more computer memory than ever before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.

Palisade Brochure

Palisade Corporation
798 Cascadilla Street
Ithaca, NY 14850-3239
800 432 RISK (US/Can)
+1 607 277 8000
+1 607 277 8001 fax
sales@palisade.com
Palisade EMEA & India
+44 1895 425050 salesEMEA@palisade.com
salesIndia@palisade.com
Palisade Asia-Pacific
+61 2 9252 5922
salesAP@palisade.com
Palisade アジア・
パシフィック東京事務所
+81 3 5456 5287 tel
Palisade Latinoamérica
+1 607 277 8000 x318
+54-1152528795  Argentina
+56-25813492 Chile
+507-8365675 Panamá
+52 55 5350 2852 México
+511-7086781 Perú
+57-15085187 Colombia
servicioalcliente@palisade.com
ventas@palisade.com
www.palisade-lta.com
Palisade Brasil
+55 (21) 3958 1443
+1 607 277 8000 x318 tel