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Det Norske Veritas (DNV) Turns to Palisade’s @RISK Software to Analyze and Quantify Risk in Energy Systems
DNV Utilizes Monte Carlo Simulation Technology to Examine Environmental and Financial Risk Factors in Solar, Wind, Oil, Gas, Nuclear Waste Storage and CO2 Recycling

13 March 2010, Ithaca, NY - Palisade Corporation, the provider of the world's leading risk and decision analysis software, @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite, announced that DNV, a global provider of services for managing risk, relies on Palisade’s @RISK software to quantify financial and environmental risk factors of energy systems.

Every energy system has some inherent risks that can create instant emergencies and long-term drawbacks. In order to assess the risk factors accurately, DNV utilized the Monte Carlo simulation process via @RISK’s triangular distribution in its projection models to analyze the risk factors in non-traditional systems such as wind and solar. Traditional energy systems including nuclear waste storage, oil and gas and carbon monoxide recycling were also analyzed. As a result, DNV conducted a detailed statistical analysis of risk factors associated with each energy source and made appropriate recommendations. Key findings included interesting insights into the following energy sources:

  • Wind and Solar---The region in which the equipment was built had a strong effect on its net return on carbon investment. For example, solar panels made in a coal intensive electric grid would be challenged to pay back that carbon if they weren’t deployed in a sunny area.
  • Nuclear Waste Storage---Storage tanks saw sensitivity factors flip depending on whether they were examined in the liquid phase or vapor phase.
  • Oil and Gas---For offshore riser calculations, the probabilistic analysis helped determine which flow conditions were most severe in terms of corrosion rate.
  • CO2 Recycling---Probabilistic analysis led DNV to adjust its cell design. The value chain model showed sodium hydroxide consumption was a major negative sensitivity factor in the net present value projection for the system.

“Assessing risk factors accurately is critical to our business, as our customers rely on us to help them make better decisions and save costs,” said Davion Hill, senior researcher at DNV. “It is even more important in the energy industry, as one of the main goals of investing in alternate sources of energy is bringing down energy costs. We are very committed to our role as an objective third party, and use Palisade’s @RISK software to help us quantify risk for our customers.”
DNV primarily provides technical assistance to ship owners, builders and operators to enable them to comply with certifications and classification services required to meet the technical regulations for the shipping industry. DNV also provides third party consulting services to companies in the energy industry to help them build offshore structures such as wind turbines.

“Risk factors can change quickly, which requires DNV to adjust its projections for customers accordingly,” said Randy Heffernan, vice president at Palisade Corporation. “It is quite exciting that DNV meets this challenge through the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation, using Palisade’s @RISK software. @RISK works by providing a range of probability distributions to represent uncertain variables, and then computing hundreds or thousands of different scenarios in order to assess the likelihood of different outcomes occurring.”

About DNV
DNV, established in 1864, is a global provider of knowledge for managing risk and an independent organization with dedicated risk professionals in more than 100 countries, with the objective of safeguarding life, property and the environment. DNV’s core competencies lie in the identification and assessment of risks and provision of advice on risk management. From its leading position in the fields of certification, classification, verification and training, DNV develops and applies standards and best practices.

Media Contacts
Shweta Agarwal and David Sprague
Schwartz MSL Boston

For more information, contact:

Randy Heffernan
Tel: 607-277-8000
Fax: 607-277-8001

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