Kinder Morgan & Riskcore Ltd use @RISK for $7.4B Trans-Mountain Expansion Project

Johns Hopkins and Interdisciplinary Solutions Use @RISK to Support Pandemic Preparedness at Mayo Clinic Rochester


A severe influenza pandemic could overwhelm hospitals, but planning guidance that accounts for specifics is lacking. For example, changing bed or ventilator capacity affects staffing, supply, and pharmaceutical needs and vice versa. Previous models did not adequately account for operational chokepoints and bottlenecks, such as emergency department throughput and dynamic staffing patterns.

To address the issue, Mark Abramovich of Interdisciplinary Solutions, LLC, decided to apply Monte Carlo simulation via @RISK. Working with several other experts, the team gathered epidemiologic variables, historical information such as the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, and particular data from Mayo Clinic Hospital – Rochester as a test case. All this vital data was used to run 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on @RISK, using various combinations of variables to determine resource needs across a spectrum of scenarios.

“Although Monte Carlo simulation cannot identify the single best strategy, it allows the decision maker to understand the range of potential outcomes and how they change based on differing assumptions, and allows for decision making with respect to uncertainty and the user’s risk tolerance,” says Abramovich. Through this approach, he and his team projected supplies needs for a range of scenarios that use up to 100% of Mayo Clinic’s surge capacity of beds and ventilators. The results indicate that there are diminishing patient care benefits for stockpiling on the high side of the range, but that having some stockpile of critical resources, even if it is relatively modest, is most important.

Byron Callies, MSHS, Mayo Clinic’s Director for Clinical & Business Continuity Management, said, “This modeling approach provided a rational basis for informed decision making for our disaster stockpile needs. As a result, by establishing a common level of preparedness based on the modeling outcomes and the organization’s risk tolerance, we were able to align and improve preparedness efforts across multiple functional groups while at the same time being good stewards of the organization’s resources.”

Read the Case Study


2018 Seminar Schedule Announced


Our worldwide Palisade Regional Training courses are professional public courses designed to teach you how to apply @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite to real-life problems. The training is hands-on, and includes course notes and example files.

Palisade Regional Training courses have been accredited by a number of industry groups, enabling professionals in those industries to earn continuing education credits. Lunch and breaks are also provided, giving you a great opportunity to network with other professionals interested in risk analysis.

View Schedule



Sandton - February 27 - Register Now

Join us next month for our conference, in Sandton!

A full day of software trainings and industry case studies – an invaluable opportunity for broadening knowledge of risk modelling, and networking with decision-making professionals in a range of industries.

Benefits of Palisade Risk Conferences:

  • Get more from @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite – Get exposure to the latest techniques in risk and decision analysis so you can apply them to your own models.  
  • Learn from experts – Sessions are taught by Palisade's consultants and trainers and industry pros.  
  • Networking opportunities – Share ideas and speak with presenters, other attendees, and Palisade staff to gain valuable insight from many backgrounds
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Cape Town Risk Workshop - March 1st - Register Now

Milan Risk Workshop - March 13th - Register Now

Vienna Risk Workshop - March 15th - Register Now

Mumbai April 24th & Bangkok April 26th - open soon

Join us for an intensive 1-day Risk and Decision Analysis Training Workshops in Cape Town, Milan, or Vienna. Registration for Mumbai and Bangkok will be open soon. 

These workshops are designed for anyone who performs risk analysis as part of their work, or deals with modelling situations where there is uncertainty, and there will be applicability to all industries and modelling requirements.

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Handy Tips for Using @RISK

On-Demand Webinar: Rocking Optimization with RISKOptimizer - Decision Making Under Uncertainty


Optimize your decisions under uncertainty.


Elevate the decision making process for your toughest business decision problems by marrying Monte Carlo simulation to optimization with RISKOptimizer, a.k.a. "optimization under uncertainty."  We begin with an entry-level introduction to optimization, followed by an entry-level introduction to probabilistic analysis with Monte Carlo simulation. Then we shift into cruising mode with a series of example models demonstrating RISKOptimizer’s 6 different solving methods (recipe, order, grouping, budget, project, schedule), plus efficient frontier analysis as applied to different types of business problems. If you build models in Excel, @RISK and RISKOptimizer can almost certainly help you to make more informed decisions, right from your desktop.

Watch the Webinar

Travel Expenses with RiskCollect

Example Model: Travel Expenses with RiskCollect

This model simulates the daily expenses of a business traveler who faces uncertainty each day on whether he makes a trip, and if so, the miles, miles per hour, miles per gallon, and price per gallon for the trip. Its outputs are total cost and total hours driven for a month, and it uses the RiskCollect function to enable sensitivity analysis of these outputs to "inputs" of interest, such as the average miles per gallon per trip.

» Download This Example Model

» See More Example Models


@RISK Tips: Results Not as Expected (Debugging Tips)


Simulation results in @RISK don't always seem right or aren't quite what was expected.  Though it might appear the results are incorrect, first consider the possibility that your model is actually behaving correctly.  We are frequently asked about "errors" that make sense when they are explained. 

See the full article on the Palisade Knowledge Base to troubleshoot some of these common problems.  

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Live Webinars
Attend an hour-long event to learn how Palisade software works, and ask questions. See the schedule here.


On-Demand Webinars
Watch a variety of Palisade webinars at your convenience. View a complete listing of on-demand webinars here.
The DecisionTools Suite
Contact Details

Palisade Corporation

798 Cascadilla St.,
Ithaca, NY 14850 USA

About Us

Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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