The Palisade Academic
@RISK Manages Operational Risks in the Green Supply Chain

@RISK Manages Operational Risks in the Green Supply Chain

As the public becomes more aware of environmental issues and global warming, consumers are asking more questions about the products they purchase. This has resulted in a growing number of companies considering the move to green supply chain management (GSCM) and integrating environmental thinking into their supply chain management.

"Many companies are concerned that changing their established processes and implementing a green supply chain could result in lower quality products, delayed shipments, or even a loss of business," explained Dr. Sachin K. Mangla of the Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee and Graphic Era University - Dehradun.

“Going green” can be a complex transition from an operational perspective, and not all companies are convinced that improved environmental performance will lead to financial gains. As green supply chain (GSC) considerations typically introduce different operational activities and processes to the supply chain, they also create new uncertainties and risks which can have a significant impact on a manufacturing-based business.

Dr. Sachin K. Mangla with Graphic Era University-Dehradun used Palisade risk analysis software @RISK to identify and evaluate the operational risks of implementing a GSC for a well-established plastic manufacturing company in India. The results generated a wide variety of possible risk scenarios, as well as associated probabilities. "@RISK enabled us to not only predict the type of risks that could happen, but also anticipate what risks were most likely to happen," said Mangla. "This enabled us to create a model that provides companies with visibility into the potential ecological-economic gains of a green supply chain, as well as recommendations to best manage the operational risks."

» Read the complete case study here
» Learn more about @RISK
» Graphic Era University - Dehradun

How are you using Palisade software in your research and classroom? We'd love to hear your story.

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:


Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 7.5 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales
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academic@palisade.com

Teaching Tips & Examples

Incorporating Simulation into Proforma Models

Excerpted from Financial Models 2 by Wayne Winston, Published by Palisade Corporation

Pro forma statements are financial sheets based on assumptions and projections. They are a great way to estimate a firm's future free cash flow, yet involve a significant amount of uncertainty. In this example, Wayne Winston walks through how to use @RISK to incorporate uncertainty into forecasts of future free cash flows with variable interest rates and target debt/equity ratios.

» Download the example files and learn more

Tech Tip of the Month

How Many Iterations Do I Need?

Q:
Can @RISK automatically determine how many iterations are needed to run a simulation so that the estimate of the mean is calculated within a specific confidence interval?

A: In order for @RISK to automatically determine how many iterations you should run for your simulation, you can set your convergence criteria and let @RISK run until the desired level of confidence has been reached. In Simulation Settings, on the General tab, set the number of iterations to Automatic. Then on the Convergence tab, set your convergence criteria. Notice that the margin of error ("Convergence Tolerance") is set to a percentage of the statistic being estimated, not to a number of units.

Convergence

If you would like to learn how to manually calculate the number of iterations you should run, you can explore this corresponding Knowledge Base article.

» Learn how to manually calculate iterations you need to run
» View other Techniques and Tips

Featured White Paper

Risk Assessment of Human Listeriosis from Semisoft Cheeses Made from Raw Sheep's Milk in Lazio and Tuscany (Italy)
Condoleo, R., Mezher, Z., Marozzi, S., Guzzon, A., Fischetti, R., Senese, M., Sette, S. and Bucchini, L. (2016). Risk Analysis. doi:10.1111/risa.12649

Listeria monocytogenes is the causative agent of listeriosis, a severe and often fatal disease. Sheep cheese has been reported to have Listeria monocytogenes and raw milk chess is a known carrier of human listeriosis. This study developed and applied a quantitative risk assessment model to estimate the risk of invasive listeriosis due to consumption of an artisanal sheep cheese made with raw milk collected from a single flock in Italy. Palisade’s @RISK was used to create the model in Excel and run simulations with Latin hypercube sampling.

»  Read the full paper here


Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, BigPicture for mind mapping and data exploration, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» @RISK Manages
   Operational Risks in the
   Green Supply Chain

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Incorporating Simulation
   into Pro Forma Models

» Tech Tip
   How Many Iterations Do I
   Need?

» Featured White Paper
   Risk Assessment of
   Human Listeriosis from
   Semisoft Cheeses Made
   from Raw Sheep's Milk

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

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Mind Mapping and Data Exploration for Excel

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Visual decision analysis
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Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets


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Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets


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