In the Netherlands, Mitigating Risks of Urban Planning with @RISK
Gemeente Hoorn sits about 45km from Amsterdam, the capital city of the Netherlands. As Amsterdam continues to grow, Hoorn is a viable option for those looking to live outside of the capital.
To expand, Hoorn looked to outlying agricultural land for its residential requirements, but the city learned that the development process is not without risks. With the growing popularity of bigger cities and gentrification in recent years, competition has become harder, and it is more difficult to sell land to real estate developers willing to build houses outside of the city.
Simon Metselaar, Financial Urban Planner at Gemeente Hoorn, observed, “When we look at developing any agricultural land into residential housing areas, there are big investments involved. With these investments we also have to deal with financial risks. In order to cope with these risks we have to determine the financial buffers, and that’s where @RISK comes into play – it offers us the ability to determine the buffer we need.”
Increases in prices of just 5-10% can make a large difference in financial outcomes. As part of the estimations, Gemeente Hoorn allows for pricing going down 20% or up 15%, and this gives them the insight through a Monte Carlo simulation of what the result could be, allowing for the ability to act -- either speeding up a project or slowing it down.
Metselaar explains, “We model all types of macro economic scenarios. Input varies, we have different indices such as interest and inflation, but also time and price are among the input parameters. With each scenario comes a combination of these parameters. @RISK provides us with the ability to facilitate a rather easy process for a very complex calculation.”
With the use of @RISK, Gemeente Hoorn is able to mitigate the risks associated with these burgeoning projects, offer advice to the council, and allow them to make decisions that will positively impact the community. Metselaar concluded, “@RISK is a simple, Excel-based tool that is instrumental in the work we do. It solves a very complex task quickly, and is core to our work in dealing with the recalculation of our financial buffers on an annual basis.”
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Trainers/Consultants (Contract Basis)
Our business is growing! We have an increased demand for experienced Trainer/Consultants to help our customers maximize the use of the powerful techniques in their Palisade software.
Trainer/Consultants conduct hands-on risk and decision analysis training using Palisade software. Training includes 2- and 3-day seminars open to the general public as well as customized, on-site training for clients with specific needs. Training sessions can be located nearly anywhere, and clients can be from virtually any industry. As part of the courses, Trainer/Consultants develop some training materials for general use, as well as create custom examples based on client-specific or industry-specific applications. Trainer/Consultants also have access to Palisade’s own training resources.
These positions generally require travel.
Successful candidates will have a university degree and considerable background in decision science, statistics, finance, oil and gas, economics and/or related quantitative field. Business consulting experience in industries using decision/risk analysis, and experience using @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software, is strongly preferred. Additionally, a flexible nature and the ability to adapt to customer requirements and different job duties are essential.
Fluency in English, Portuguese, and/or Chinese is highly desirable.
These positions are currently available on a contract basis, with a flexible commitment level. Candidates considered worldwide. Please send a resume and cover letter to email@example.com.
@RISK Helps Keep Pupfish from the Brink of Extinction
The Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis) is one of the world’s most endangered animals. A major strategy for conserving the pupfish has been to create additional captive populations, but scientists needed to know how to best extract wild pupfish for breeding purposes without unduly accelerating the extinction risk for the population in Devil’s Hole. Dr. Steven Beissinger, Professor of Conservation Biology at the University of California, Berkeley, constructed a population variability analysis (PVA) using @RISK to better inform this dilemma. The modeling work has helped to inform decisions made by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to conserve the Devil’s Hole pupfish. “The modeling helped everyone to see what some of the trade-offs would be and made the various outcomes more explicit,” says Dr. Beissinger.
» See the complete case study, with graphs
A company is open from 7AM until 11PM each day of the week. Each of its workers must work 5 consecutive days, and each day worked, he/she must work 4 consecutive hours, then have an hour off, and then work 4 more consecutive hours. The model assumes that the hourly schedule for a given worker is the same each day worked. The problem is basically to hire as few workers as possible, and to schedule them appropriately, so that there are enough on hand to meet the daily/hourly requirements. This example demonstrates how you can use the RISKOpitmizer features of @RISK Industrial to fine the optimal solution.
» Download the example model
» More about RISKOptimizer
Introduction to BigPicture
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Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite
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and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world's leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.