Palisade Corporation
NASA and Lockheed Martin use @RISK for Planning First Manned Mission to Mars

In This Issue
What’s New
» NASA and Lockheed Martin
   use @RISK for Planning First
   Manned Mission to Mars

Palisade Risk Conferences
» Schedules Announced

Case Study
» NeuralTools Nets More Dollars
   for Business Financing Firms

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Using Data to Obtain Inputs
   for New Product Simulations

Upcoming Webcasts
 

In This Issue
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2014 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
The 2014 Risk Conferences are "must attend" events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. Join us for an intensive day of software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts.
 
» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
» Dubai: 8 April
» Bogotá: 13 May
» Madrid: 20 May
» Seattle: 24 June
» Washington, DC: 26 June
» Chicago: 17 July
» Sydney: 21 August
» Beijing: 2 September
» Brisbane: 18 September
» London: 7 October
» Frankfurt: 9 October
» Rome: 21 October
» New Orleans:
    19-20 November


Regional Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Brisbane: 30 Sept - 2 Oct
Jakarta: 4-6 November
Singapore: 18-20 November
Melbourne: 1-3 December

Brasil
Rio de Janeiro:
  24-26 de setembro
São Paulo: 16-17 de outubro
Belo Horizonte: 22-24 de outubro
São Paulo: 29-31 de outubro
Brasilia: 19-21 de novembro
Rio de Janeiro:
  26-28 de novembro

EMEA
London: 16-18 September
Oslo: 23-25 September
Frankfurt: 29 Sept.-1 Oct.
Moscow: 1-3 October
Amsterdam: 6-8 October
Johannesburg: 15-17 October
London: 28-30 October
London: 25-27 November

Latin America
Quito, Ecuador:
  21 al 23 de octubre
Santiago, Chile:
  3 al 5 de noviembre

North America
New York: 8-10 September *
Houston: 16-18 September **
Denver: 15-17 October
Montreal: 20-22 October
* Special Finance and Banking Focus
* Special Oil and Gas Focus

 

Live Web Training
Project Risk Assessment
Using @RISK

26-27 August, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART I

4-5 September, 1pm-5pm ET
PART II
15-16 September, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using DecisionTools Suite
PART I

20-21 October, 9am-1pm ET
PART II
3-4 November, 9am-1pm ET

 

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» РУССКИЙ
» 日本語版
» 中文版

@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite

NASA and Lockheed Martin use @RISK for Planning First Manned Mission to Mars
Visiting Mars is no longer the stuff of science fiction--thanks to engineers and analysts at NASA and Lockheed Martin. Michael Watson, a senior member of the Lockheed Martin Space Systems Company Integrated Program, and his team are helping to build the first stepping stones to this journey.

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle program will build America’s next human exploration spacecraft, capable of taking humans into deep space, the moon, asteroids, and Mars. The first step of this program is an unmanned test flight, Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1), which will orbit around Earth 3600 miles into space, providing engineers with critical data about Orion's systems and capabilities. The next step in the mission will be an unmanned 25-day mission to circle the moon and back, followed by a manned mission that will take astronauts to explore nearby asteroids.

Watson and his colleagues have used @RISK to plan and analyze potential challenges with the current stage of the program, EFT-1, and how those challenges will affect the overall Orion program schedule. Watson says @RISK makes evaluating schedule risk much more efficient. “Palisade software really makes it a lot easier to handle large, complex systems in data analysis,” he says. “It tells us the probability of making our contractual dates, highlights any areas of risk that we may not have identified, and also provides us with forensic data to look back at for other areas of opportunities.”

  » Read the full case study
  » Learn more about @RISK
 

2014 Palisade Regional Risk Conferences
The Palisade Regional Risk Conference Series continues its global tour. These regional conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Our 2014 circuit will make three more stops in Europe:

London: 7 October
» View the Schedule   » Register Now
Frankfurt: 9 October
» View the Schedule   » Register Now
Rome: 21 October
» View the Schedule   » Register Now

2014 Palisade Regional Risk Conferences
The Palisade Regional Risk Conference Series continues its global tour. These regional conferences have brought together risk and decision analysis professionals from Fortune Global 500 corporations to small consulting practices, and across every industry. Our 2014 circuit will make two more stops in the Asia-Pacific region:

Beijing: 2 September
» View the Schedule    » Register Now
Brisbane: 18 September
» View the Schedule    » Register Now

Sign Up for the Palisade Annual
Risk Conference - now in New Orleans
Join leaders from Sandia National Labs, CH2M Hill,
Tecolote Research, and Many More!


The preliminary schedule is available! Join us for two days in New Orleans at the Hilton New Orleans Riverside Hotel for our largest conference of the year. This is a must-attend event, with four tracks of informative sessions that offer opportunities to learn, network, and explore the broad range of applications Palisade software provides.

New Orleans: 19-20 November
» View the Schedule    » Register Now
 

Case Study
NeuralTools Nets More Dollars for
Business Financing Firms

Business Backer, a lending firm for small businesses, asked Albert Fensterstock, Managing Director at Albert Fensterstock Associates to help refine their decision-making process around choosing new lending clients. Fensterstock turned to NeuralTools and StatTools to discover the most predictive variables when evaluating a potential client, as well as to determine how likely a debtor was to pay back a loan, and how much they were best-suited to borrow.

Overall, the models Fensterstock developed for Business Backer set an impressive precedent. “I’ve been doing this kind of work for 22 years, and I’ve never before built models that were able to do this in one task,” he says. “This model is better than anything I’ve ever developed.”

 » Read the full case study
 
 

Product Spotlight
Using Data to Obtain Inputs for
New Product Simulations

From Chapter 28 of Financial Models Using Simulation and
Optimization I
by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

Many companies use subjective estimates to obtain inputs to a new product simulation. For example, market size may be subjectively modeled as a triangular random variable, with the marketing department coming to a consensus on best, worst, and most likely scenarios. In many situations, however, past data may be used to obtain estimates of key variables such as share, price, volume, and costs. This example discusses how past data on similar products or projects can be used to model share, price, volume and cost uncertainty. The utility of each of our models will depend on the type of data you have available. This example covers a variety of these scenarios.

  • The Scenario Approach to Modeling Volume Uncertainty
  • Modeling Market Share’s Response to Competition
  • Simulating Market Share for a New Product
  • Modeling Price Uncertainty
  • Simulating the Price of a New Product
  • Modeling Statistical Relationships with One Independent Variable

 » Download the example model and step-by-step instructions
 
 

Upcoming_Webcasts

English
Schedule Risk Analysis for a Large Development Program
Presented by: James Aksel, Principal Consultant, Project PMO
   04 Sept. - 11am EDT-New York (5pm CEST)   » Register Now

Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Aman Bajaj, Palisade Corporation
   05 Sept. - 11am CEST-Central Europe (5am EDT)   » Register Now
   10 Sept. - 1pm EDT-Eastern US (7pm CEST)   » Register Now
   02 Oct. - 11am CEST-Central Europe (5am EDT)   » Register Now
   08 Oct. - 1pm EDT-Eastern US (7pm CEST)   » Register Now

Using VBA for Excel and the XDK to Improve
the @RISK Experience

Presented by: Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
   08 Sept. - 12noon AEST-Australia (4am CEST)   » Register Now

Business Forecasting and Simulation using
@RISK an the DecisionTools Suite - Part 3 of 3

Presented by: Glen Justis, Experience on Demand
   18 Sept. - 11am EDT (5pm CEST)   » Register Now

Optimisation with RISKOptimizer —
Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Presented by: Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
   03 Oct. - 12noon AEST-Australia (4am CEST)   » Register Now

Spanish - Español
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión
con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presented by: James Aksel, Principal Consultant, Project PMO
   09 Sept. - 11am CEST-Central Europe (5am EDT)   » Register Now

Portuguese - Português
Análise Quantitativa de Risco Utilizando o @RISK e o DecisionTools Suite
Presented by: Renato Limão, Palisade Corporation
   05 Sept. - 11am CEST-Central Europe (5am EDT)   » Register Now

French - Français
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DécisionTools Suite

Presented by: Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
   07 Oct. - 11am CEST-Central Europe (5am EDT)   » Register Now

German - Deutsch
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by: Sascha Stange, Palisade Corporation
   21. Oktober - 11am CEST (5am EDT)   » Register Now

Chinese - 中国
大型工程建设项目风险量化现状及发展趋势
Presented by: 金峰, 中石化(SINOPEC)项目风险负责人
   28 Aug. - 9am CST-Beijing (11am AEST)   » Register Now

   25 Sept. - 9am CST-Beijing (11am AEST)   » Register Now

Japanese - 日本語
リスクと意思決定分析入門@RISK &DecisionTools Suiteを使用して
Presented by: Freeman Liu, Palisade Asia-Pacific
   27 Aug. - 10am JST-Japan (11am AEST)   » Register Now

   26 Sept. - 10am JST-Japan (11am AEST)   » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk
and Decision Analysis

Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

 
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