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University of New Brunswick Applies @RISK to Sustainable Seafood Farming

University of New Brunswick Applies @RISK to Sustainable Seafood Farming
Aquaculture has become a booming industry in many regions of the world. According to the World Bank, nearly two-thirds of the seafood we consume will be farm-raised in 2030. However, commercial aquaculture can have negative environmental impacts, such as high nutrient waste and low oxygen environments. Integrated Multi-Trophic Aquaculture (IMTA) are managed, multi-species aquaculture systems designed to improve environmental management, and increase harvest value through product diversification and recycling of nutrients.

To achieve these benefits, all the interacting components must be understood and carefully optimized. Dr. Gregor Reid, a senior research scientist with the University of New Brunswick, used @RISK to determine the ideal ratios of kelps to uptake soluble metabolites from a salmon IMTA system. A paper detailing this work appeared in the journal Aquaculture in May of 2013.

For his @RISK model, Reid gathered inputs from three diverse sources: the commercial industry, academic literature, and field research. Rather than use single static values for the model inputs, Reid used stochastic distributions for several inputs with ranges of uncertainty, such as digestibility of salmon feed components and nutrient content of IMTA kelps. Known inputs or easily determined values, such as feed composition (listed on all feed bags) could be left as static inputs. Model inputs with sufficient empirical sample data were fit with the @RISK’s distribution fitting functions, testing 15 different theoretical distribution types, and using maximum likelihood estimators to rank the best fits.

After running 10,000 iterations in @RISK, Reid found that “it’s not going to be possible to do full dissolved nutrient recovery with kelps in North America, unless the number of fish being farmed on site is reduced to make room for other species,” He says—but, “one-hundred percent nutrient sequestration doesn’t need to be the only successful endpoint in such systems.”

 » Read the full case study
 » More about @RISK

@RISK@RISK has been a great way to
      communicate uncertainty in complex
      systems, and its ease of use with Excel
      spreadsheets make it a highly intuitive and
      powerful tool.
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                        Dr. Gregor Reid, Senior Research Scientist,
                        University of New Brunswick

Licensing Options

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Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
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Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

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Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way for students.

Normality Tests
Excerpted from Learning Statistics with StatTools,
by Dr. Chris Albright, published by Palisade Corp.

Because so many statistical procedures assume that a variable is normally distributed, it is useful to have methods that check this assumption. The example file below and the step-by-step instructions show three commonly used procedures to test normality using StatTools. The first two of these are formal hypothesis tests, where the null hypothesis is that the distribution is normal, and the alternative is that it is any nonnormal distribution. The third procedure is not a formal hypothesis test, but it provides graphical evidence of whether a distribution is normal.

» Download example file and view step-by-step instructions

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is a key component in major textbooks in business, OR, and engineering.

Business Analytics: Data Analysis & Decision Making, 5th Edition
By Dr. Chris Albright and Dr. Wayne Winston

Become a master of data analysis, modeling, and spreadsheet use with Business Analytics: Data Analysis & Decision Making, 5th Edition! This quantitative methods text provides users with the tools to succeed with a teach-by-example approach, student-friendly writing style, and complete Excel 2013 integration. It is also compatible with Excel 2010 and 2007. Problem sets and cases provide realistic examples to show the relevance of the material. The Companion Website includes: the DecisionTools Suite (@RISK, StatTools, PrecisionTree, TopRank, RISKOptimizer, NeuralTools, and Evolver); SolverTable, which allows you to do sensitivity analysis; data and solutions files, PowerPoint slides, and tutorial videos.

» Learn more from the publisher

Featured White Paper

The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.

Optimum Utilization of Fly Ash for Stabilization of Sub-Grade Soil using
Genetic Algorithm
Jyoti S. Trivedi, Sandeep Nairb, Chakradhar Iyyunnic
Elsevier, SciVerse Science Direct, Procedia Engineering:
Volume 51, 2013, Pages 250–258

Sub-grade soil stabilization is one of the primary and major processes in the construction of any highway. The aim of this research paper is to formulate a model based on Genetic Algorithm which can be used to predict variation in the values of CBR of the Sub-grade Soil with the addition of a specific percentage of Fly Ash. The input values for this study were those which directly affect the CBR values i.e., directly proportional to CBR. It includes Liquid Limit (LL), Plasticity Index (PI), Optimum Moisture Content (OMC) & Fraction of Fly Ash added (F.A in %). Palisade's Evolver was used for the analysis of stabilization of soil using fly ash.

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
Textbooks using Palisade software

In This Issue

» Univ. of New Brunswick
   Applies @RISK to
   Sustainable Seafood

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &

   Normality Tests

» Textbook of the Month
   Business Analytics: Data
   Analysis & Decision Making,
   5th Edition

» Featured White Paper
   Optimum Utilization of Fly
   Ash for Stabilization of Sub-
   Grade Soil using Genetic

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
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4-5 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET
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