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University of Arkansas Researchers Use @RISK To Analyze Rice Farmer Mass Tort Claims

University of Arkansas Researchers Use @RISK to Analyze Rice Farmer Mass Tort Claims
Rice is a big deal in Arkansas. The State is number one in the country for producing the crop, accounting for roughly 45% of total U.S. production. Recently, some Arkansas rice farmers banded together in a mass tort action against RiceTec®, a hybrid rice breeding company that owns all of the commercially released lines of hybrid rice. These rice farmers claimed that these pricier varieties of rice were faulty and milled poorly. According to the farmers, this combination of higher costs to them along with (in their view) lower quality meant the group could not earn profits on the hybrid rice which were equivalent to conventional (inbred) varieties.

Dr. L. Lanier Nalley, an associate professor of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness at the University of Arkansas wanted to examine the validity of this claim, comparing the economic risk and return of RiceTec’s hybrid rice varieties to conventional, non-hybrid rice. Using @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation features, Nalley was able to show that RiceTec’s hybrids were not only more profitable, but also less risky than their conventional counterparts.

 » Read the full case study
 » More about @RISK
 » Learn more about Dr. Lawton Lanier Nalley
 

@RISK The simplicity of this software meant that I
      could literally do these calculations in five
      minutes. The other big thing was that
      @RISK does an unbelievable job of creating
      very user friendly outputs. You don’t have
      to be a statistician to understand these
      very nice distributional outputs.
Trial Versions

                        Dr. Lawton Lanier Nalley, Agricultural Economics
                        and Agribusiness, University of Arkansas

Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 

Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

 

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way for students.

Project Management
Excerpted from Evolver: Solutions for Business,
by Roy L. Nersesian, published by Palisade Corp.

This example gives you the opportunity to theoretically manage a project that includes designing a plant that manufactures generators, as well as hiring and training your staff to install them. By identifying the activities on the critical path of the PERT (Performance Evaluation Review Technique) diagram you, as the manager, can set your priorities on whether activities are critical or not.

Crashing, or reducing the length of time to complete a project, adds to the cost in the form of overtime, bringing in additional resources, and other means to hasten the completion of a critical activity. Solver alone can handle the situation of shortening the project for an added cost as long as there is a linear relationship linking cost and time. However, Evolver becomes necessary if the cost of crashing is nonlinear. Nonlinearity usually prevails because costs rise exponentially with the degree of shortening. For instance, if shortening a project by one month costs $100, then shortening a project by 2 months may cost $300 and by 3 months, $700.

Follow this step-by-step example to see how Evolver can assist in minimizing the time and costs associated with this project.

Palisade Corporation  Download example files and view step-by-step instructions

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is a key component in major textbooks in business, OR, and engineering.

Project Risk Management:
Essential Methods for Project Teams
and Decision Makers
By Yuri Raydugin

Risk Management has been identified as one of the nine content areas for Project Management Professional (PMP) certification. Yet, it remains an area that can get bogged down in the real world of project management. Practical and clearly written, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers equips project managers and decision makers with a practical understanding of the basics of risk management as they apply to project management.

This textbook by Yuri Raydugin is an easy to implement, practical, and proven risk management methodology for project managers and decision makers. Drawing from the author's work with several major and mega capital projects for Royal Dutch Shell, TransCanada Pipelines, TransAlta, Access Pipeline, MEG Energy, and SNC-Lavalin, Project Risk Management: Essential Methods for Project Teams and Decision Makers reveals how to implement a consistent application of risk methods, including using cost and schedule Unknown-Unknown allowances in probabilistic risk models in Monte Carlo tools, such as @RISK.

» Learn more from the publisher
» View Yuri Raydugin’s white paper “Unknown Unknowns –
   Probabilistic Modeling in Projects”

Featured White Paper

The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.

Unknown Unknowns in Project Probabilistic Cost and Schedule Risk Models
Yuri Raydugin, P.Eng., M.B.A., Ph.D.
Principal Consultant, Risk Services & Solutions Inc.

Practitioners recognize a requirement to consider unknown unknowns in project risk management. Same time, clear and consistent recommendations on incorporating of unknown unknowns into risk models have yet to be proposed.

This article outlines the thinking process and comes up with practical recipes on handling unknown unknowns in software products, such as @RISK. Four dimensions of unknown unknowns are discussed: novelty of a project, phase of project development, type of industry and bias. A discussion on unknown unknowns vs. corporate risks is provided. Practical recommendations on including unknown unknowns into probabilistic cost and schedule risk models are also put forward.

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  American University
Carnegie Mellon University
Colorado School of Mines
DeVry Education Group
George Mason University
Memorial University of Newfoundland
New York Power Authority
Savannah State University
Simon Fraser University
Texas A & M University
Texas A and M University
UC Davis
UC Los Angeles
University of Florida
University of Minnesota
University of Notre Dame
University of Wisconsin Madison
Western University
Whitworth University
Yale University


International:

  American University Sharjah - United Arab Emirates
Antwerp Management School - Belgium
Bogazici University - Turkey
Centros Culturales de Mexico A.C. - Mexico
Chukyo University - Japan
EBS Universitдt fьr Wirtschaft und Recht - Germany
Ecole des Mines d'Albi Carmaux - France
ESSEC Business School - France
Fundaзгo Getulio Vargas - Brazil
Glasgow Caledonian University - United Kingdom
Hochschule Ingolstadt - Germany
Hochschule Rhein-Waal - Germany
Humboldt Universitaet zu Berlin - Germany
IAE Business School - Argentina
Institute of Technology Sligo - Ireland
ITESM Campus - Monterrey
Kwame Nkrumah University of Science
  and Technology - Ghana
Macquarie University - Australia
Mahidol University - Thailand
Monash University - Australia
PUC RIO - Brazil
Royal Veterinary College - United Kingdom
The University of Edinburgh - United Kingdom
TU Graz - Austria
Universidad Autуnoma del Estado de Hidalgo - Mexico
Universidad La Salle Cuernavaca, A.C. - Mexico
Universite Toulouse I Capitole - France
Universitetet i Stavanger - Norway
University Bocconi - Italy
University of Aberdeen - United Kingdom
University of Bern - Switzerland
University of Dundee - United Kingdom
University of Economics Prague - Czech Republic
University of Queensland - Australia
University of Westminster - United Kingdom
Universitа di Genova DIPTEM - Italy
ZHAW Zuercher Hochschule f. Angew.
  Wissenschaft - Switzerland
Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» Researchers Use @RISK
   to Analyze Rice Farmer
   Mass Tort Claims

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Project Management

» Textbook of the Month
   Project Risk Management:
   Essential Methods for Project
   Teams and Decision Makers

» Featured White Paper
   Unknown Unknowns in
   Project Probabilistic Cost
   and Schedule Risk Models

» Recent School Adoptions

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Events

2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
The 2014 Risk Conferences are "must attend" events for quantitative risk and decision analysis professionals. Join us for an intensive day of software training presented by Palisade trainers and consultants, and real-world case studies presented by industry experts.
 
» Copenhagen: 31 March
» Amsterdam: 3 April
» Dubai: 8 April
» Bogotá: 13 May
» Madrid: 20 May
» Seattle: 24 June
» Washington, DC: 26 June
» Sydney: 21 August
» Brisbane: 18 September
» London: 7 October
» Frankfurt: 9 October
» Johannesburg: 14 October

» Training Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Bangkok: 21-23 May
Perth: 16-18 June
Beijing: 25-26 June
Hong Kong: 5-7 August
Singapore: 2-4 September

Brasil
São Paulo: 14-16 de maio
Rio de Janeiro: 28-30 de maio

EMEA
Johannesburg: 15-17 April
London: 22-24 April
Moscow: 23-25 April
Madrid: 21-22 May
London: 3-5 June
London: 19-20 June*
 * Special Oil and Gas Focus

Latin America
Medellín: 23 al 24 de abril
México, DF: 13 al 15 de mayo
Lima: 27 al 29 de mayo

North America
Chicago: 15-17 April
Los Angeles: 21-22 April
Houston: 22-24 April
San Francisco: 23-25 April
New York: 6-8 May
Calgary: 4-6 June
Toronto: 9-11 June
Boston: 10-12 June
Cinncinatti: 22-23 July
Vancouver: 5-7 August
Washington, DC:
  5-7 August

» Trade Shows
EMEA & India
PMI Global Congress
5-7 May 2014
Dubai World Trade Centre
Dubai, UAE
 
Africa Oil & Gas EXPO 2014
9-10 October
Sandton Convention Centre
Johannesburg, South Africa
 
SPE ATCE 2014
27-29 October 2014
RAI CENTRE
Amsterdam, Netherlands

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using DecisionTools Suite
PART I

10-11 April, 9am-1pm ET
PART II
24-25 April, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
The world's most widely
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@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» For Project Management
@RISK» For Six Sigma

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Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


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