University of London and EpiX Analytics
Teach @RISK in Health and Food Safety
Risk analysis is increasingly being used to support decisions relevant to national food safety and animal health policies as well as international trade agreements, with an overall goal of reducing the probability and impact of diseases in animals and humans. This has led to a growing demand for suitably qualified risk analysts and cutting-edge risk analysis practices in health and food safety.
With a long track record in delivering quantitative risk analysis training to the health, epidemiology and food safety communities, EpiX Analytics has teamed up with the Veterinary Epidemiology, Economics and Public Health Group of the University of London - Royal Veterinary College in London, UK to launch an academic Postgraduate Certificate in Risk Analysis in Health and Food Safety. The Certificate is the first recognized qualification in risk analysis in health and food safety, awarded by the University of London and utilizes @RISK to provide this training.
» Read the full case study
» More about the Postgraduate Certificate in Risk
Analysis in Health and Food Safety
The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way for students.
An Introduction to Real Options: Modeling a Gold Mine Lease and Expansion
Excerpted from Decision Making Under Uncertainty with
RISKOptimizer, by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation
Suppose the uncertainty concerning an investment decision deals primarily with risk involving the price of a commodity. Assume the current price of gold is $400 per ounce. The price of gold evolves through time as a Lognormal random variable with an annual volatility of 30%. The
current risk-free rate is 10%. It costs $300 per ounce to extract gold, so we will only extract gold during a year in which the price exceeds $300. Up to 10,000 ounces of gold can be mined and sold each year. Assuming cash flows occur at the end of each year, use the provided example files and @RISK to value a 10 year lease on this gold mine.
Download example files and view step-by-step instructions
With easy to use features, @RISK is a
powerful tool used in decision support. Its
user friendly interface helps facilitate the
teaching of complex mathematical
concepts to professionals from a wide
range of backgrounds, from the advanced
modeler to the occasional Excel user that
has never worked in quantitative risk
Dr. Francisco Zagmutt,
Managing Partner at EpiX Analytics
Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:
US and Canada:
Arizona State University|
California State University, Fresno
Chicago State University
Penn State Great Valley
University of Delaware
University of Houston - Clear Lake
University of Minnesota
Western Washington University
Worcester Polytechnic Institute
||ALBA Graduate Business School - Greece |
Christian-Albrechts-Universitaet zu Kiel - Germany
CUNEF - Spain
Hochschule fьr Technik und Wirtschaft Dresden - Germany
Hochschule Zittau/Goerlitz - Germany
Hoegskolan i Gaevle - Sweden
IEF - Institut d’Estudis Financers - Spain
INSEAD - Singapore
Institucion Universitaria Esumer - Colombia
Instituto Superior Tecnico - Portugal
Instituto Tecnologico - Mexico
Instituto Tecnologico Metropol - Colombia
ITESM Campus Monterrey - Mexico
ITESM Campus Chihuahua - Mexico
Lebanese American University - Lebanon
LUMS Lahore University of Management Sciences - Pakistan
Lund University - Sweden
Management Development Institute of Singapore - Singapore
Middle East Technical University - Turkey
Reykjavik University - Iceland
Royal Holloway University of London - United Kingdom
The Petroleum Institute - United Arab Emirates
University of Queensland - Australia
Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha - Spain
Universidad de Medellнn - Colombia
Universidad de Talca - Chile
Universidad de Valencia - Spain
Universidad del Pacifico - Peru
Universidad Iberoamericana Ciudad de Mexico - Mexico
Universitдt Wьrzburg - Germany
University of Portsmouth - United Kingdom
There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:
Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License.
» Learn more
Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more
Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more
Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:
Palisade Academic Sales
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
Correlating Input Variables
Two input distributions are correlated when their samples should be “related” — that is, the value sampled for one distribution should affect the value sampled for the other. This correlation is necessary when, in reality, two input variables move to some degree in tandem. For example, imagine a model with two input distributions — Interest Rate and Housing Starts. These two inputs are related, as the value sampled for Housing Starts depends on the value sampled for Interest Rate. A high Interest Rate would tend to cause a low value for Housing Starts, and conversely a low Interest Rate would tend to cause a high value for Housing Starts. If this correlation were not accounted for in sampling, some iterations of the simulation would reflect nonsensical conditions that could not occur in reality — such as a high Interest Rate and a high value for Housing Starts.
The Define Correlations command allows the samples of input probability distributions to be correlated. When the Define Correlations icon is clicked, a matrix is displayed which includes a row and column for each probability distribution in the currently selected cells in Excel. Correlation coefficients between the probability distributions can be entered using this matrix.
» Learn more in the @RISK manual
The DecisionTools Suite is a key component in major textbooks in business, OR, and engineering.
Choosing Safety: A Guide to Using Probabilistic Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis in Complex, High Consequence Systems
By Michael V. Frank
The technological age has seen a range of catastrophic and preventable failures, often as a result of decisions that did not appropriately consider safety as a factor in design and engineering. Through more than a dozen practical examples from the author's experience in nuclear power, aerospace, and other potentially hazardous facilities, Choosing Safety brings together probabilistic risk assessment and decision analysis using real case studies and PrecisionTree software. For managers, project leaders, engineers, scientists, and interested students, Michael V. Frank focuses on methods for making logical decisions about complex engineered systems and products in which safety is a key factor in design - and where failure can cause great harm, injury, or death.
» Learn more from the publisher
» Learn more about the author in this Space Safety Magazine article
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software
The DecisionTools Suite is part of complex analyses published in white papers.
Integrated Cost-Schedule Risk Analysis
David T. Hulett, Ph.D, Hulett & Associates, LLC
Michael R. Nosbisch, CCC, PSP
This paper describes an improvement in cost risk analysis over the traditional methods that address cost risk without explicit reference or, indeed, any reference at all to the project schedule and its risk. We now know how to represent the role that schedule risk has in driving project cost, because the longer some resources such as engineering or construction work the more they cost. @RISK and Monte Carlo simulation is the most commonly used approach to analyzing the impact of multiple risks on the overall project schedule or cost risk. Simulating a resource-loaded project schedule derives consistent results for the project schedule and cost in each iteration.
The results can be used to conduct a risk mitigation exercise to improve the project’s prospects for success.
Read the full paper here
The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.
What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.
The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.
» Schools using Palisade software
» Textbooks using Palisade software
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