@RISK Modeling Tips
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Project Risk Assessment
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
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Industry experts will present a selection of real-world case studies about innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. Here’s just a sample:
The event will also include practical software workshops and training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. We’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that make risk modeling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.
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As part of the transition to a ‘low carbon economy,’ renewable technologies are expected to play an increasing role in reducing dependence on fossil fuels for energy and electricity. Wind power in particular is likely to become a much larger contributor to the UK’s energy mix. The current dominant design for large, grid-connected wind turbines is a three blade rotor with a horizontal rotating axis. The concept of a vertical axis wind turbine (VAWT) is relatively new, but has several advantages over horizontal axis alternatives. It is able to capture the wind from any direction, and the vertical axis is such that the rotor equipment is located at base level, making it is simpler and less costly to install and maintain.
This case study used @RISK to considered the potential reduction in greenhouse gases (GHGs) that could be achieved through the installation of a type of vertical axis wind turbines, in comparison to conventional horizontal axis wind turbines (HAWTs) for offshore power generation.
Hydropower is similar to solar and wind where energy to generate electricity is renewable and free. However, hydropower contributes much more in satisfying global energy needs than other renewables. Hydropower has a number of variables that affect performance to satisfy desired power output such as rainfall in the reservoir basin, reservoir capacity, water consumption for different power outputs that depends on water height above the intake, and losses from evaporation and bottom leakage. @RISK can be used to simulate the performance of a plant under different conditions.
This is a classic inventory situation, but with two twists. The first twist is that inventory is water in a reservoir, not boxes in a warehouse. The end-of-month reservoir level or inventory is the start-of-month’s inventory for the following month plus additions to inventory from rainfall less deductions from inventory by the outflow of water to generate electricity and from evaporation and leakage. The second twist is that a same desired electricity output consumes different quantities of water depending on the depth of water in the reservoir. @RISK can identify likely shortages of electricity supply based on demand, rainfall, and other factors.
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
Introduction to Risk Analysis using
Introduction to Monte Carlo Simulation for
Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse mit
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
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