Palisade Corporation
Palisade Publishes New Book by Roy Nersesian on Energy Risk Modeling

Palisade Publishes New Book by Roy Nersesian on Energy Risk Modeling
Roy Nersesian is a professor in the Leon Hess School of Business at Monmouth University, and an adjunct professor for the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. His new book, Energy Risk Modeling is loaded with real-life examples that demonstrate how @RISK, PrecisionTree, and Evolver can be used to make better financial decisions within the oil and gas, electricity, and renewable energy industries. Much of Energy Risk Modeling is a result of Professor Nersesian’s Energy Modeling course at Columbia University.

Roy Nersesian’s easy-to-read, step-by-step approach makes his techniques accessible to anyone who uses Microsoft Excel. All examples covered in the book are provided in Excel spreadsheets.

Topics covered in the book include:

  • Modeling daily electricity demand amidst uncertainty in the deregulation, time of year and day.
  • Optimizing an oil refinery to maximize profits and valuing a real option of purchasing a coal-fired plant using Evolver, shown to have a greater predictive efficacy than Excel’s built-in Solver.
  • Modeling solar panel and wind turbine power outputs by factoring cloud cover, temperature, time of day, and wind speed, respectively, while optimizing said uncontrollable energy sources with uncontrollable demand to closely match daily energy demand with power generated.
  • Selecting which kind of energy plant to meet incremental demand based on modeling of capacity, costs, energy output of each source, and taxes and capital recovery factor.
  • Projecting oil consumption with trend/regression analysis and oil prices under conditions of uncertainty.

 » Join us on September 18th for a complimentary live webcast
    with Roy Nersesian about Energy Risk Modeling

 » Read more about Energy Risk Modeling
 » More about Professor Nersesian, his courses, and publications
 

@RISK @RISK is a wonderful tool which helps
      business people make accurate, efficient
      financial projections, as well as accurately
      establish which risks their investments are
      exposed to.
Trial Versions

                        Dr. Gabriel Rovayo,
                        Instituto de Desarrollo Empresarial, Ecuador

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2012, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Auburn University
Augsburg College
Baylor University
Carnegie Mellon University
Fort Lewis College
Georgetown University
Illinois Institute of Technology
Iowa State University
Johns Hopkins University
New Mexico Tech
Niagara University
Northwestern University
Oklahoma State University
Oregon State University
Syracuse University
The University of Kansas
University of Arkansas
University of California, Davis
University of Maryland
University of Michigan
University of Minnesota
University of Texas, Austin
University of Washington
Washington University
Wichita State University
York College of Pennsylvania


International:

  Bonn-Rhine-Sieg University - Germany
Bournemouth University - United Kingdom
CMU Qatar Foundation - Qatar
Centros Culturales de Mexico AC - Mexico
Dipl. Ing. Bohumil Ullmann - Czech Republic
Ecole Centrale de Lyon - France
FH Südwestfalen - Germany
Fundação Coppetec - Brazil
Fundação Getulio Vargas - Brazil
Groupe ESC Dijon Bourgogne - France
Investigaciones y Estudios Superiores, S.C. - Mexico
Queensland University of Technology - Australia
Swinburne University of Technology - Australia
TU Graz - Austria
Universidad de Chile - Chile
Universidad Tecnia Federico Santa Maria - Chile
Universidade Federal Fluminense - Brazil
Universitaet Duisburg-Essen - Germany
Universität Hohenheim - Germany
University of Leeds - United Kingdom
University of Salford - United Kingdom
University of Southampton - United Kingdom
Westfälische Hochschule - Germany
Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 

Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation. Palisade offers a complimentary Live Web Training session to all instructors who order a Course License.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 6 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

 

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Simulating a New Product:
The Hippo Example

Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization,
by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

A company makes three models of a product: premium, standard, and economy. The standard product sells for $70 with a manufacturing cost of $40. A premium model has additional features with a cost of $50 whereas the economy model lacks certain features with a cost of $35. The question is what should be the price for the premium and economy models.

Palisade Corporation Download the example spreadsheet and
    step-by-step instructions

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Making Hard Decisions with
DecisionTools Suite
By Robert Clemen and Terrence Reilly

This is a special version of Robert Clemen's best-selling text, Making Hard Decisions. This straight-forward book teaches the fundamental ideas of decision analysis, without an overly technical explanation of the mathematics used in management science. It fully incorporates and implements the DecisionTools Suite, including @RISK, PrecisionTree, and RISKOptimizer. At the end of each chapter, topics are illustrated with step-by-step instructions for DecisionTools software, thus making the text more useful and relevant to students of business and engineering.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Risk and Return for Bioenergy Crops under Alternative Contracting Arrangements
James A. Larson, Burton C. English, Lixia He
Department of Agricultural Economics,
The University of Tennessee

Farmers, agribusiness, policymakers, and others have shown considerable interest in the potential for on-farm production of biomass for ethanol production. As part of this study, a 99 year set of real, detrended, and correlated prices for corn, soybeans, wheat, wheat straw, corn stover, switch grass, nitrogen fertilizer, and diesel fuel were simulated using @RISK.

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Academic Live Webcast

Experts using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips. Register online at no charge.

Energy Risk Modeling as a Teaching
Tool, and Overview of Book

To be presented by Roy Nersesian
September 18, 2013, 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)

Get a first-hand introduction to Energy Risk Modeling from author Roy Nersesian. In this complimentary live webcast, learn how Professor Nersesian utilized the contents of the book to build a course. There will also be an overview of the book for individuals in the field of energy who may want to utilize @RISK products in their work. Energy Risk Modeling has been written in a way to spur ideas on how @RISK products can be used in various aspects of energy from fossil fuels to renewables. At the end of the presentation, Professor Nersesian will address matters on the minds of attendees on how @RISK may be applied to their work.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here
 
» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software


In This Issue

» Palisade Publishes New
   Book by Roy Nersesian on
   Energy Risk Modeling

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   Simulating a New Product:
   The Hippo Example

» Textbook of the Month
   Making Hard Decisions
   with DecisionTools Suite

» Featured White Paper
   Risk and Return for
   Bioenergy Crops under
   Alternative Contracting
   Arrangements

» Academic Live Webcasts
   Energy Risk Modeling as a
   Teaching Tool, and Overview
   of Book

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Keep in Touch
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Events

2013 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
These events include industry experts presenting a selection of real-world case studies, practical software workshops and training classes presented by Palisade trainers, consultants, and software engineers. Also, be sure to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
 
» Santiago de Chile:
   19 March

» São Paulo: 21 March
» Johannesburg: 25 April
» Tokyo: 14 May
» Shanghai: 16 May
» London: 11 June
» Frankfurt: 13 June
» Brisbane: 27 August
» Perth: 29 August
» Istanbul: 12 September
» Moscow: 14 October
» Paris: 12 November
» Milan: 14 November
» Las Vegas: 20-21 November

» Training Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Bangkok: 11-12 September
Taipei: 14-15 September
Singapore: 18-19 September
Sydney: 16-17 October
Brisbane: 6-7 November
Perth: 20-21 November
Melbourne: 4-5 December

Brasil
São Paulo: 9-13 de setembro

EMEA
Moscow: 11-13 September
London: 17-19 September
Munich: 24-26 September
London: 22-24 October
Johannesburg: 29-31 October
Oslo: 19-20 November
London: 26-28 November
Milan: 10-12 December

Latin America
Lima: 3-5 de septiembre
Medellín: 10-12 de septiembre
San José: 24-26 de septiembre
Panamá: 1-3 de octubre
Bogotá: 29-31 de octubre
México D.F.: 3-5 de diciembre

North America
Atlanta: 10-12 September
San Francisco: 17-19 Sept.
Montreal: 1-2 October
Dallas: 1-3 October
Chicago: 15-17 October
Washington, DC:
   29-30 October
Philadelphia: 5-7 November
Denver: 6-7 November
Los Angeles: 3-5 December
Orlando: 10-12 December

 

» Trade Shows
North America
SPE-ATCE
New Orleans
30 September - 2 October
 
INFORMS

Minneapolis
6-9 October
 
PMI Global Congress

New Orleans
26-29 October

EMEA & India
ONS
Stavanger, Norway
19-21 August
 
ICPMF8

Paris, France
16-20 September
 
KOGS

Mishref, Kuwait
8-10 October
 
Nordic Project Zone Summit

Copenhagen
25-27 November

 

» Live Web Training
Project Risk Assessment
using @RISK

18-19 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

24 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART I

31 Oct. - 1 Nov., 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
14-15 Nov., 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

9-10 Dec., 9am-1pm ET

PART II
19-20 Dec., 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
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@RISK
The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» For Project Management
@RISK» For Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


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