Palisade Corporation
E-Focus:Risk Analysis and Real Options in Upstream Projects using @RISK: The Gulf of Mexico Case at Petrobras In This Issue
What’s New
» Risk Analysis and Real
   Options in Upstream Projects

» Intel uses @RISK and
   PrecisionTree for Product
   Development

» No-Charge Expert
   Consulting Session

» Network Versions for
   @RISK and DecisionTools
   Suite 6.0 Now Available

Case Study
» @RISK used for Product
   Reliability in Sub-Sea Oil &
   Gas Projects

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Customizing @RISK
   Simulation Reports using
   Excel Templates

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
Join us in Las Vegas for the biggest conference yet with FOUR TRACKS of industry experts presenting real-world case studies, and Palisade consultants delivering workshops and training. Sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge.
 
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov


Regional Seminars
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Kawasaki: 8-9 November
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» Brazil
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» EMEA & India
London: 23-25 October
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  31 October - 2 November
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» Latin America
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   23-24 October
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Dallas: 27-29 November
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Atlanta: 11-12 December
 

Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART II

29-30 October, 9am-1pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

6-7 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

PART II
17-18 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

12 November, 1pm-5pm ET

 

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Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
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decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
Risk analysis software using Monte Carlo simulation for Excel and Project

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite


Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

Risk Analysis and Real Options in
Upstream Projects using @RISK:
The Gulf of Mexico Case at Petrobras

As presented by Rafael Hartke at the
2011 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas

 
Meet Rafael at the 2012 Risk Conference in Las Vegas, November 7-8

 
Petrobras, the national oil company of Brazil, is among the world’s largest energy companies. All investment projects must undergo economic risk analysis. There is a standard model for economic risk analysis of upstream projects used by Petrobras America, using @RISK. In the US, a continuously producing lease does not expire, so upstream projects in the Gulf of Mexico have natural expansion options. But the standard model did not evaluate real options.

Rafael Hartke developed a real options model to evaluate specific project expansions in the Gulf. He then created a solution integrating the standard risk analysis model (using @RISK) with the real options model (using RISKOptimizer). This case study discusses the integrated model and its application to an upstream project in the Gulf of Mexico.

 » Download the presentation
 » Register for the Palisade Risk Conference
 » Book you room at Mandalay Bay for only $149 – limited rooms available
 

Intel uses @RISK and PrecisionTree
for Product Development

As presented by Andre Lowe at the
2010 Palisade Risk Conference, Las Vegas

 
Meet Andre at the 2012 Risk Conference in Las Vegas, November 7-8
 
Intel Corporation's Embedded and Communications Group (ECG) delivers an enhanced IA technology portfolio for embedded and communications market segments. ECG is broken into three divisions, Embedded Computing Division (ECD), Low-Power Embedded Products Division (LEPD) and Performance Products Division (PPD). ECG's products are either Adopt (server, desktop, mobile), Modify (LV Processors, Mobile CPU + Server Chipsets) and Create (system on a chip, San Clemente).

“Gossamer Lightning” (see example model) is a typical “Create” project. Determining the optimal strategy for Gossamer required balancing various investment scenarios, headcount decisions, and target market choices. Additionally, there is still a tremendous amount of uncertainty involved in important factors such as bill-of-materials (BOM) costs, average selling price (ASP), and volume expectations. Monte Carlo analysis and decision trees have been key in understanding the risks and expected returns of the project.

 » Download the full case study and Excel models
 » Register for the Palisade Risk Conference
 » Book you room at Mandalay Bay for only $149 – limited rooms available
 

Palisade Risk Conference Offers
No-Charge Expert Consulting Sessions

Unique Opportunity for Customized Advice
 
Mandalay Bay, Las Vegas, November 7-8
 
Now is the time to participate in the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas. In its seventh year and attracting more people every time, the Palisade Risk Conference has become the “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 25 real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The event will also include more than a dozen practical software workshops and training classes. In addition, we’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that will make risk modelling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever. That’s over 40 sessions in all!

A unique feature of the Palisade Risk Conference is our Expert Sessions: one-on-one consulting sessions with Palisade technical experts. Sign up for a 45-minute slot to meet with us and discuss your own risk or decision modeling challenges. Feel free to bring your laptop and your models. All sessions are confidential and there is no additional charge. Slots are available on a first come, first serve basis.

 » Register for the Palisade Risk Conference
 » Book you room at Mandalay Bay for only $149 – limited rooms available
 

Network Versions for @RISK 6.0 and DecisionTools Suite 6.0 Now Available
 
Palisade is pleased to announce the network version release of new @RISK 6.0 and DecisionTools Suite 6.0! @RISK 6.0 for Excel now integrates with Microsoft Project, as well as includes easier-to-understand graphs, new time-series modeling, better distribution fitting, and more. RISKOptimizer and Evolver have been enhanced with the new OptQuest solving engine, improving speed and accuracy on many types of models. PrecisionTree now includes Bayesian revision and greatly improved tree editing. StatTools and NeuralTools offer new types of analyses. There is something for everyone in the new DecisionTools Suite! Please note there are no changes to the stand-alone versions of @RISK 6.0 and DecisionTools Suite 6.0.

Now you can enjoy all the benefits of version 6.0 with the flexibility and ease of deployment that come with a Palisade network license. By hosting @RISK or DecisionTools Suite in a client-server environment, you reduce tracking overhead, minimize product activations, and provide access to the software to all your users on a cost-efficient, as-needed basis.

Customers with current maintenance on their existing @RISK or DecisionTools Suite network license are entitled to a free upgrade to new version 6. Other existing users are eligible for discounted upgrade pricing.

Contact me to order your Palisade network version:

Palisade Sales
607-277-8000
sales@palisade.com

 » See what’s new in version 6.0
 » Learn more about Palisade network versions
 


Case Study
@RISK used for Product Reliability
in Sub-Sea Oil & Gas Projects

Cranfield University is a wholly postgraduate institution with a worldwide reputation for excellence and expertise in engineering, environment, manufacturing, and other fields.

A recent project focusing on sub-sea equipment for the oil and gas industry at Cranfield provided evidence to business managers that a better return on investment (ROI) is achieved through enhancing a product's longterm reliability as a result of spending time and resources early in the product design lifecycle.

Cranfield's School of Applied Sciences uses @RISK software to calculate the likelihood of sub-sea oil and gas production equipment failing, and the overall cost throughout the project life cycle, should it do so. The failure of any product has huge ramifications. @RISK enables Cranfield to integrate the critical elements of the two core risk analysis techniques commonly used in the engineering field, RAM (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability) and Lifecycle Costing analysis (LCC).

 » Read the full case study
 


Product Spotlight
Customizing @RISK Simulation
Reports using Excel Templates

You can create your own customized reports in Excel that include only the data, statistics, and graphs you want. Do this using template sheets.

Simulation statistics and graphs are placed in a template using @RISK statistics functions (such as RiskMean) or the graphing function RiskResultsGraph. When a statistics function or graphing function is located in a template sheet, the desired statistics and graphs are then generated at the end of a simulation in a copy of the template sheet when you choose the Template Sheets option in the Excel Reports dialog. The original template sheet with the @RISK functions remains intact for use in generating reports from your next simulation.

Template sheets are standard Excel sheets. They are identified to @RISK by having a name that starts with RiskTemplate_. These files can also contain any standard Excel formulas so custom calculations can be performed using simulation results.

RISKTemplate
The example file Template.XLS shown above contains a template sheet. You can review this sheet to see how to set up your own custom reports and template sheets.

 » Download the example file to see how to set up your own reports
 » Read more about reporting in Excel


Upcoming_Webcasts
Introduction to Risk and Decision Analysis
using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade Corporation
   October 18, 2012, 10am GMT Summer Time
» Register Now
   November 6, 2012, 10am GMT
» Register Now
   December 6, 2012, 10am GMT
» Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et Decision Tools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
   October 17, 2012 10am GMT Summer Time
» Register Now

Using @RISK in Load and Resistance Factor Design (LRFD)
Approach for Civil Engineering

Presented by Naresh Samtani, NCS Consultants
   25 October 2012 11am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)
» Register Now

Portfolio Management using @RISK
Presented by Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors
   November 15, 2012 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
» Register Now

Good Practices and Common Mistakes
Presented by Dr. Huybert Groenendaal, EpiX Analytics
   December 6, 2012 11am EST (Eastern Standard Time)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

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