Palisade Corporation
Cornell and Purdue use @RISK
to Assess US Agriculture

Cornell and Purdue use @RISK
to Assess US Agriculture

The US Government spends about $20 billion per year on farm programs. The benefits are distributed through a variety of income-enhancing and risk-reducing policies. In the past, some programs have provided price protection, others a direct subsidy, and others subsidized the purchase of crop insurance.

How did these programs individually and collectively reduce agricultural risk? Did the programs have the desired effects? Does the money help producers reduce risk and thereby provide a disincentive to purchase crop insurance? And are there better ways to address agricultural risk?

Researchers at Cornell University and Purdue University assessed the impacts of US farm programs on farm returns to answer some of the above questions. The researchers used Palisade’s @RISK to create a simulation model that illustrates the effects of government policy tools on farm incomes.

» Read the full case study
 

@RISK@RISK was vital to the simulation model.Trial Versions

                           Dr. Brent Gloy, Applied Economics & Management,                            Cornell University

 

What's New in DecisionTools Suite 6?
 
Time-series modeling

@RISK now offers a new set of functions for simulating time series processes, or values that change over time. Any future projection of time series values has inherent uncertainty, and @RISK now lets you account for that uncertainty by looking at the whole range of possible time series projections in your model. This is particularly useful in financial modeling and portfolio simulation. There are functions available for 17 different statistical time series models, including ARMA, GBM, GARCH, and others. These functions are entered as array functions in Excel. @RISK provides new windows for fitting historical time series data to these new functions. The results can be animated to show the behavior of your time series during simulation. All this is integrated into the existing @RISK interface.

» Watch a demonstration of this new feature
 

Palisade 2012 Risk Analysis Conference – Las Vegas!
 
Now is the time to participate in the Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas. In its seventh year and attracting more people every time, the Palisade Risk Conference has become the “must attend” event for professionals dealing with risk in any industry. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present a selection of over 20 real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. The event will also include more than a dozen practical software workshops and training classes. In addition, we’ll explore exciting new features in @RISK and DecisionTools Suite software that will make risk modeling and analysis more accessible – and powerful – than ever.

Please contact academic@palisade.com to register, or call
607-277-8000.
 

Recent School Adoptions

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2011, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

  Arizona State University
Brigham Young University
Chicago State University
Cornell University
Dartmouth College
Defense Acquisition University
Georgia Institute of Technology
Lehigh University
Montana State University, Billings
Ohio State University
Polytechnic University
Royal Military College
Spelman College
University of Arkansas
University of British Columbia, Okanagan
University of Central Florida
University of Texas at San Antonio
University of Utah
University of Waterloo
University of Tennessee, Knoxville


International:

  Actuarieel Genootschap & Actuarieel Instituut - Netherlands
Agder University - Norway
Antares Educacional LTDA - Brazil
Cardiff University - United Kingdom
Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business - China
EBS Universität für Wirtschaft und Recht - Germany
Fundación Universidad de las Américas, Puebla - Mexico
KyungHee University - South Korea
Lancaster University - United Kingdom
Llull University, ESADE - Spain
Reykjavik University - Iceland
Swansea University - United Kingdom
Technische Universiteit Delft – Netherlands
Universidad Catolica del Norte - Chile
Universidad de Medellín - Colombia
Universidad Francisco Marroquín – Guatemala
Universität Hohenheim - Germany
Universite Paris Dauphine - France
University of Athens - Greece
University of Cambridge - United Kingdom
University of Leeds - United Kingdom
University of New South Wales - Australia
University of Queensland - Australia
Licensing Options

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

 

Course Licenses available from Palisade. These are economical, annually renewing bulk licenses for both
network lab and laptop installation.
» Learn more

Student Versions from Palisade. These are 12-month versions available for purchase individually by students through either the Palisade web site or the school store.
» Learn more

Textbook Editions available bundled with textbooks.
These are time- and model-limited licenses.
» Learn more

Get DecisionTools Suite 6.0 for your course by contacting:

AddressPalisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

@RISK @RISK is elegant and valuable
      software...it is just "way cool" and
      powerful. The software's reputation
      is awesome!
Trial Versions

                                  Professor Rick Mull
                                  Fort Lewis College, Colorado

Teaching Tips & Examples

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

The RISKTrigen Function
Excerpted from Financial Models using Simulation and Optimization, (3rd Edition) by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

When we use the RISKTRIANG function we are assuming we know the absolute worst and absolute best case that can occur. Many companies, such as Eli Lilly, prefer to use a triangular random variable in which the worst case and best case are defined by a percentile of the random variable. For example, at Eli Lilly the 10th percentile of demand, most likely demand, and 90th percentile of demand often define forecasts. The following example shows how to use the RISKTRIGEN function to model uncertainty.

Palisade Corporation Download the example spreadsheet and
    step-by-step instructions

Tech Tip of the Month

@RISK Library

The @RISK Library allows results from different models and simulations to be stored and compared. In the @RISK Library, results from multiple @RISK simulation runs may be active at any time vs. results from only a single simulation run in @RISK in Excel. Once results are stored in the Library, overlay graphs can be made to compare results from different runs. For example, you may run a simulation using an initial set of parameters, storing that result in the @RISK Library. Then, you could change your model in Excel and rerun the analysis, storing the second result in the library. Overlaying the graphs for outputs from each run will show you how your results have changed.

You may also sample from an output stored in the @RISK Library in a new simulation in Excel. The @RISK Library can place a RISKResample function in Excel that references the data that was collected for the output and stored in the @RISK Library. This is useful for combining the results of many separate models in a new single simulation or portfolio optimizations for distribution functions.

Textbook of the Month

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Project Economics & Decision Analysis,
Second Edition
by By M.A. Mian
Published 2011

This comprehensive set provides all the necessary concepts of capital investment evaluation, capital budgeting, and decision analysis, particularly in oil and gas. Mian takes the reader step-by-step through the decision-making process, providing comprehensive coverage of all decision analysis tools currently available while outlining how investment decisions are made under different stages of risk. Further, he focuses on practical application, using a straightforward approach with solved “real-life” examples and solutions, end-of-chapter problems, and illustrations throughout the book. Volume 1 includes deterministic models, while Volume 2 deals with probabilistic models and the concepts of decision analysis (incorporating risk and uncertainty as applied to capital investments). Volume 2 also contains Excel spreadsheets (detailed cash flows and calculations) of all the examples in the two volumes and DecisionTools Suite software.

» Learn more from the publisher
» View a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Featured White Paper

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Risk Management and Lifeline Engineering
Shahinaz A Bakir and David G Elms, University of Canterbury and John Lamb, Christchurch Engineering Lifeline
 
One of the central problems in lifeline engineering is to achieve an integrated and balanced system so that for the most important elements of the lifeline the risk is evenly distributed and no part is more vulnerable than another. The paper demonstrates how a risk balancing technique can be applied by decision-makers to produce a guide as to how best to prioritise spending. A scenario is assumed in which a local authority decision-maker has a fixed budget to be spent among different possible modes of expenditure. The theory is given as to how this should be done to achieve the lowest overall risk. Failure can take place in different ways, each with an associated probability and consequence. An example is given of the application of the theory to expenditure on improvements to the seismic behaviour of the water supply lifeline in part of Christchurch, New Zealand.

Palisade Corporation  Read the full paper here

Academic Live Webcast

Experts using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips. Register online at no charge.

Using @RISK in Load and Resistance
Factor Design (LRFD) Approach
for Civil Engineering

To be presented by Naresh Samtani, NCS Consultants
October 25, 2012, 11:00am EDT (Eastern Daylight Time)

This free live webcast will introduce and discuss the LRFD approach and then demonstrate how @RISK can be used in LRFD context.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here

Portfolio Management using @RISK
To be presented by Matt Rosenberg, RoseCap Investment Advisors
November 15, 2012, 11:00am EST (Eastern Standard Time)

This free live webcast is intended to show the benefits of using Monte Carlo simulation in the processes of portfolio construction, and portfolio management for individuals, families and institutional investors. Topics will include a general overview of the portfolio management processes, as well as specific examples showing the use of @RISK for risk management within these processes.

» Read more details about the webcast and register here

Good Practices and Common Mistakes
To be presented by Dr. Huybert Groenendaal, EpiX Analytics
December 6, 2012, 11:00am EST (Eastern Standard Time)

Ever question if your Monte Carlo model is correct? Ever wondered how other organizations use @RISK, how to get the most value out of @RISK, and what are some of the most important best practices? Then this is the right free live webcast for you!

» Read more details about the webcast and register here
 
» See complete Webcast schedule

Palisade Corporation

The Academic Global Leader in
Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?
The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
»
Textbooks using Palisade software

Story to Share?
We are always on the lookout for interesting content to add to our academic newsletter. Many of our academic users are involved in projects using our software which might have wide appeal and be of general interest. If you have a story to share, send it to: academic@palisade.com and we’ll consider it for an upcoming edition!
 

In This Issue

» Cornell and Purdue use
   @RISK to Assess
   US Agriculture

» What's New in
   DecisionTools Suite 6?

» Palisade 2012 Risk
   Analysis Conference –
   Las Vegas!

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples

   The RISKTrigen Function

» Tech Tip
   @RISK Library

» Textbook of the Month
   Project Economics & Decision
   Analysis, Second Edition

» Featured White Paper
   Risk Management and
   Lifeline Engineering

» Academic Live Webcasts
   Using @RISK in LRFD
   for Civil Engineering
 
   Portfolio Management
   using @RISK
 
   Good Practices and
   Common Mistakes

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

» Story to Share?

Keep in Touch
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Palisade CorporationClick to chat live with
a sales representative


Risk Conferences

2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
Industry experts present real-world case studies, Palisade consultants deliver workshops and training, plus sessions on new version 6.0 of the DecisionTools Suite. Don't miss the opportunity to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge!
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov

Events

» Training Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Kawasaki: 8-9 November
Perth: 13-14 November
Brisbane: 20-21 November
Melbourne: 4-5 December

Brazil
Vitória: 24-25 de outubro
São Paulo: 7-9 de novembro

EMEA
London: 23-25 October
Johannesburg:
  31 October - 2 November
Madrid: 22-23 November
London: 27-28 November

Latin America
Lima: 13-16 de noviembre
Santiago: 12-16 de noviembre
Montevideo: 3-5 de diciembre
San José: 4-7 diciembre

North America
Washington, DC:
   23-24 October
Hartford: 14-15 November
Los Angeles: 4-5 December
Atlanta: 11-12 December
 

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART II

29-30 October, 9am-1pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

12 November, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and
Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

6-7 December, 11am-3pm ET

PART II
17-18 December, 11am-3pm ET

Trial Versions

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!

The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


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Palisade Corporation
©2012 Palisade Corporation, visit www.palisade.com

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