Palisade Corporation
E-Focus: DNV uses @RISK to Identify Risks in Energy Systems In This Issue
What’s New

» DNV uses @RISK to Identify
   Risks in Energy Systems

» Professional Development
   and Free Consulting at
   Palisade Risk Conference
   Sydney

» Professional Development
   and Free Consulting at
   Palisade Risk Conference
   London

» Palisade Global Events

Case Study
» Cornell and Purdue use
   @RISK to Assess
   US Agriculture Policy

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Insuring a Business Risk

Upcoming Webcasts

In This Issue
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2012 Palisade Risk Conferences
 
Industry experts present real-world case studies, Palisade consultants deliver workshops and training, plus sneak previews of new software. Don't miss the opportunity to sign up for an Expert Session, in which you can have an expert review your model and answer questions, one-on-one, at no charge.
 
» London: 18-19 April
» Sydney: 29-30 May
» Las Vegas: 7-8 Nov


Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Kuala Lumpur: 3-4 April
Sydney: 17-18 April
Canberra: 1-2 May
Beijing: 16-17 May
Hong Kong: 22-23 May
Perth: 13-14 June
Melbourne: 19-20 June

» Brazil
Brasilia: 28-30 de março
Rio: 16-18 de abril
Curitiba: 9-11 de maio
São Paulo: 23-25 de maio
Recife: 13-15 de junho
Belo Horizonte: 27-29 de junho

» EMEA & India
Hamburg: 3-4 April
Abu Dhabi: 14-16 May
London: 22-23 May
London: 19-20 June

» Latin America
Santiago: 18-20 de abril
Buenos Aires: 23-25 de abril
Villahermosa: 9-11 de mayo

» North America
Washington, DC: 27-29 March
Phoenix: 10-11 April
Chicago, IL: 24-26 April
Jersey City, NJ: 8-9 May
Houston: 15-17 May
Minneapolis: 22-23 May
Seattle: 12-14 June
Toronto: 27-28 June
 

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using @RISK
PART I

4-5 April, 11am-3pm ET
PART II
1-2 May, 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis
using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

4-5 June, 1pm-5pm ET
PART II
21-22 June, 1pm-5pm ET

Using Decision Trees with
PrecisionTree to Add Insight
to Decisions

30 May, 11am-3pm ET

 

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

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@RISK
The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite


Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

 

Det Norske Veritas (DNV) uses @RISK to Identify Risks in Energy Systems

Det Norske Veritas (DNV) is a global provider of services for managing risk for a variety of industries worldwide. The organization was interested in comparing and contrasting risk factors and ROI of non-traditional and traditional energy sources, and utilized @RISK to establish a baseline of probabilities for a number of risk factors associated with each system.

Clients trust DNV to offer accurate forecasts of risk, and DNV meets this challenge through the utilization of Monte Carlo simulation with Palisade’s @RISK software. DNV set out to quantify risk of non-traditional energy systems (wind and solar) and traditional energy systems (nuclear waste storage, oil and gas, nuclear and CO2 recycling). With the utilization of @RISK, DNV found useful information regarding various risk factors in non-traditional energy sources that impact the usefulness and profitability of those energy systems.

According to Davion Hill, senior researcher at DNV, “We are now using [@RISK's] sensitivity analysis to identify alternatives that will help us bring down the energy costs. This iterative analysis has been very powerful in the shaping of this project.”

 » Read the full case study
 » More about DNV
 » Read more about @RISK


Professional Development and Free Consulting
at Palisade Risk Conference Sydney

May 29-30, 2012 – Full Conference Programme Available
Join Aon, Lend Lease, and others

Now is the time to register for the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference in Sydney. In its seventh year and attracting more people each time, the Palisade Risk Conference series has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and software training sessions covering innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.

Learn from presentations given by professionals at Aon Global Risk Consulting, University of New South Wales, Philip Chun Consultancy, and many others.

Lunches, breaks, and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

 » View the schedule and register Only $295 – save $300

"Overall I enjoyed the conference and it was well
 worth the time to travel."
                          – Michael Russell, BlueScope Steel
 


Professional Development and Free Consulting
at Palisade Risk Conference London

April 18-19, 2012 – Full Conference Programme Available
Join Halcrow, Unilever, and others

Now is the time to register for the 2012 Palisade Risk Conference in London. In its seventh year and attracting more people each time, the Palisade Risk Conference series has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry users and expert consultants will present dozens of real-world case studies and software training sessions covering innovative approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems.

Learn from presentations given by professionals at Unilever, TransAtlantic Petroleum, Halcrow Group, and many others.

Lunches, breaks, and networking receptions are all included with your registration.

 » View the schedule and register Only £195 – save £100

"The conference provided me with food for thought in order
  to provide better solutions to prospects and clients."
                          – J. Rouaud, Marsh S.A.
 


Palisade Global Events
In an ongoing effort to spread best practices in risk and decision analysis across industries, Palisade continues to offer risk training events and conferences around the world. Just in the last few months, over five hundred people have attended Palisade events around the world.

Many of these events are complimentary, and all professionals facing risk in any industry are encouraged to attend.

Here’s where you can find Palisade's complimentary Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry events coming soon…

  • CHICAGO – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry
    April 4 –
    Complimentary
  • BEIJING – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry (in Chinese)
    April 10 – Complimentary
  • TORONTO – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry
    April 11 – Complimentary
  • SHANGHAI – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry (in Chinese)
    April 12 – Complimentary
  • HONG KONG – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry
    April 17 – Complimentary
  • LONDON – Palisade Risk Conference Europe
    April 18-19 – Two days of multiple case studies and training – only £195
  • TAIPEI – Strategic Risk Quantification for Industry (in Chinese)
    April 19 – Complimentary
  • MADRID – Academic Symposium for Quantitative Risk Analysis
    May 10 – Complimentary (in Spanish)
  • SYDNEY – Palisade Risk Conference Asia-Pacific
    May 29-30 – Two days of multiple case studies and training – only $295

More events are planned for other cities soon!


Case Study
Cornell and Purdue use @RISK to Assess US Agriculture Policy
The US Government spends tens of billions of dollars on farm programs. The benefits are distributed through a variety of income-enhancing and risk-reducing policies. For instance, some programs provide price protection, others a direct subsidy, and others subsidize the purchase of crop insurance.

How do these programs individually and collectively reduce agricultural risk? Are these programs having the desired effects? Is the money helping producers reduce risk and thereby providing a disincentive to purchase crop insurance? And are there better ways to address agricultural risk?

Researchers at Cornell University and Purdue University conducted a study that assesses the impacts of US farm programs on farm returns and answers some of the above questions. The researchers used Palisade’s @RISK to create a simulation model that illustrates the effects of government policy tools on farm incomes.

The @RISK simulation model demonstrated that a combination of all government programs would raise average farm incomes by almost 45%. Additionally, the programs would reduce the economic risks associated with farming by half. Most importantly, the model allowed researchers to examine how the programs interact with one another to alter the return distribution.

According to study researcher Dr. Brent Gloy, now of Purdue University, “@RISK was vital to the simulation model. It allowed us to incorporate uncertainties and run random simulations on the various scenarios.”

 » Read the full case study


Product Spotlight
Insuring a Business Risk
This example was excerpted from Chapter 15 of the book @RISK Bank Credit Analysis by Roy Nersesian, published by Palisade

Suppose a company is considering buying business insurance as a means of countering risk as a substitute for swaps. A company providing such insurance needs adequate reserves, which it may not possess. Additional reserves can be obtained by finding a pension fund with a large holding of financial instruments that can easily be converted into cash such as high grade bonds. The insurance company can tap these reserves in the following manner. If the insurance premiums exceed claims, funds will begin to accumulate in the pension fund for the account of the insurance company. Suppose that the pension fund administers the investment of these funds and provides a return on these excess funds of 6%, a little less than the average rate of return for the insurance company. If the insurance premiums fall short in paying claims and exhausts its funds held by the pension fund, then the pension fund is obligated to liquidate its bond positions to pay the claims. When this happens, the insurance company will be charged 8% for the amount of money provided by the pension fund to meet the insurance company’s obligations. Thus the pension fund will view providing reserves to the insurance company as a means to increase its return on its portfolio. Moreover to protect the pension fund, the insurance company is obligated to increase the premium to the company to replenish the pension fund reserves.

What should be the appropriate insurance premium?

 » Download the full example and spreadsheet model
 » Learn more about @RISK Bank Credit Analysis by Roy Nersesian


Upcoming_Webcasts
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis
using @RISK & the DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Palisade Corporation
   March 29, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   April 26, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   May 2, 2012, 11am (ET)
» Register Now
   May 24, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now
   June 27, 2012, 10am (London)
» Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et
décisions avec @RISK et Decision Tools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
   March 30, 2012,
11:00am (Paris) » Register Now
   April 24, 2012, 11:00am (Paris) » Register Now

Introduction to @RISK with a Cost Estimation Focus
Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade Corporation
   April 4, 2012, 10:00am (London)
» Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y
decisón con @RISK y DecisiónTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
   April 13, 2012, 11:00am (Madrid)
» Register Now
   April 28, 2012, 11:00am (Madrid) » Register Now

Multi-Dimensional Project Portfolio Optimization and @RISK
Presented by Eric Torkia, Technology Partnerz Analytics Services
   April 26, 2012, 11:00am (New York)
» Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

 
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