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Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
Now is the time to register for the 2011 Palisade Risk Conference in Las Vegas. Now in its sixth year and attracting more people every time, the conference has become the most important event of the year for quantitative risk and decision analysis. Over the course of two days, industry experts will present over 40 real-world case studies and training sessions about innovative and interesting approaches to managing risk and uncertainty in a wide range of business applications. In addition, you’ll have the opportunity to meet one-on-one with technical consultants to address your personal modeling and risk problems. Plus: see sneak previews of the upcoming 6.0 version of software from Palisade!
Christina Ray, Senior Managing Director for Market Intelligence at Omnis, Inc., and author of Extreme Risk Management: Revolutionary Approaches to Evaluating and Measuring Risk, will deliver the plenary session on “Decision Making and Enterprise Risk Management: The Plausible vs. the Probable.”
Lunches, breaks, and networking receptions at the fabulous Monte Carlo Resort and Casino are all included with your registration.
The conference provided me with food for
The conference was opened by Palisade president Sam McLafferty and vice president Randy Heffernan. Sam presented an overview of Palisade and previewed what is coming next in future versions, and Randy discussed the importance and need for probabilistic analysis in today’s business climate. Over the course of the two days this was followed by sessions on risk analysis in petroleum exploration, capital project expansion, mineral drilling, cost estimation, and more. Delegates also found time to relax and exchange ideas at numerous networking sessions and receptions.
I enjoyed the event very much. It was very
Recently Brazil-based Petrobras, one of the world’s largest oil companies, implemented a corporate-wide protocol for evaluating the economic risks associated with potential investments. Key risks of interest to the company include those associated with production of oil and natural gas, demand for derivatives, prices of various commodities, and more.
To deal with these risks, Petrobras has integrated @RISK with its in-house analysis software. Using @RISK enables the company to analyze more complex projects, such as those undertaken with outside partners and those involving multiple concessions (specific drilling areas). In addition, @RISK helps reduce the calculation time for projections that used to take thousands of hours.
In the “good old” days, projects were evaluated in terms of their most likely returns. Aside from considerations in business strategy, if project A had a return of 8% and project B a return of 9%, then the latter would be preferred.
@RISK permits project evaluation in terms of both risk and reward. Suppose that two projects provide the same return, but have different variances. The probability distribution of outcomes for projects A and B can be described by normal distributions with a mean of 10%. However, project A has a standard deviation of 1% while project B has a standard deviation of 2%. Project B would be considered the riskier project because it has a higher probability of yielding a lower level of return than project A even though both projects have the same average return.
Presented by Andrew Sich,
Presented by Jaime Weisberg,
Presented by Steve Hunt,
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
Presented by Doug Oldfield,
Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using
Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
Use of @RISK for Quantifying Uncertainty in
@RISK used to evaluate capital budgeting, investments, random
INCAE students analyze financial institutions and capital
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