Palisade Corporation
5.7.1 Update available for immediate download. Free for current maintenance holders
E-Focus: PricewaterhouseCoopers Recommends @RISK to Reduce Insurance Costs In This Issue
What’s New

» PwC Recommends @RISK
   to Reduce Insurance Costs

» @RISK 5.7.1 and
   DecisionTools Suite 5.7.1
   Now Available

» Palisade Risk Conference
   Las Vegas, November 10-11

Case Study
» Calculating ROI on
   Property with @RISK

@RISK Modeling Tips
» Using @RISK with
   PrecisionTree

Upcoming Webcasts

Blog Headlines

In This Issue
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2011 Palisade Risk Conferences


Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» México City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov


Regional Seminars
» Asia-Pacific
Brisbane: 24-25 August
Melbourne: 12-13 October
Perth: 16-17 November
Sydney: 7-9 December

» EMEA & India
London: 2-4 August
London: 6-7 September
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Madrid: 5-7 October
Munich: 11-12 October
London: 25-27 October
London: 23-25 November

» Latin America
Santa Cruz, Bolivia:
   16-18 de agosto
Bogotá, Colombia:
   29-31 de agosto
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
   19-21 de septiembre
Lima, Perú:
   4-6 de octubre
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre
Santiago, Chile:
   7-11 de noviembre
México, D.F.:
   21-25 de noviembre

» North America
Jersey City: 16-17 August
Calgary: 31 Aug. - 1 Sept.
Denver: 13-15 September
Toronto: 20-21 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 11-13 October
Dallas: 25-27 October
Atlanta: 6-7 December
 

Live Web Training Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
PART I

2-3 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

PART II
10-11 Aug., 1-5pm ET
17-18 Nov., 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I

22-23 Sept., 1pm-5pm ET
1-2 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

PART II
10-11 October, 1pm-5pm ET
15-16 Dec., 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
7 November, 9am-1pm ET

Trial Versions
Palisade software is available
in fully functional trial versions.
Try @RISK or any of our
software today!


The DecisionTools Suite
The complete risk and
decision analysis toolkit

» English
» Español
» Português
» Deutsch
» Français
» 日本語版
» 中文版

@RISK
The world's most widely
used risk analysis tool
@RISK» @RISK for Excel
@RISK» @RISK for Project
@RISK» @RISK for Six Sigma

PrecisionTree
Visual decision analysis
for spreadsheets

NeuralTools
Sophisticated neural networks for spreadsheets

StatTools
Advanced statistical analysis for spreadsheets

Evolver
The Innovative Optimizer
for Windows


The DecisionTools Suite


Intel and the Intel logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of Intel Corporation
or its subsidiaries in the United States and other countries.

 

PricewaterhouseCoopers Recommends
@RISK to Reduce Insurance Costs

PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), in its capacity as risk analysis consultancy, developed a risk analysis model and recommended @RISK software to its client Post Denmark, Denmark’s national mail service, for the management of operational risks. Using @RISK’s Monte Carlo simulation, PwC was able to help Post Denmark quantify and understand its hazard risks. Armed with this insight, Post Denmark was better able to evaluate the premiums being offered by different insurance companies to ensure they were a true reflection of the organization’s risk undertaking.

Frank Lyhne Hansen, PwC consultant during the project, explained: “Post Denmark had been meticulous in collecting data relating to every eventuality against which it must insure itself. @RISK extracts true value from this information because it quantifies the risk faced by the organization in a measurable format. The technical sophistication of @RISK enables models to be built that reflect complex scenarios and are straightforward for users to deploy and interpret.”

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about @RISK
» Learn more about PwC


@RISK 5.7.1 and DecisionTools Suite 5.7.1
Now Available

No Charge for Current Maintenance Holders

We are pleased to announce the release of @RISK 5.7.1 and DecisionTools Suite 5.7.1, available now for immediate download. The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs, and 5.7.1 is an important maintenance release that provides valuable improvements and fixes. At Palisade, we strive to continually improve the tools you rely on for optimal decision-making, so be sure to keep your software current.

As with version 5.7.0, version 5.7.1 is fully compatible with 64-bit Excel 2010, as well as 32-bit versions of Excel. 64-bit technology enables Excel and DecisionTools products to access much more computer memory than ever before. This allows for vastly larger models and greater computational power.

@RISK and DecisionTools Suite 5.7.1 are available in English, Spanish, Portuguese, French, German, Japanese, and Chinese.

» Get your update online
» Or contact us at sales@palisade.com or 1-800-432-7475


Palisade Risk Conference Las Vegas:
Save the Date – November 10-11
The Monte Carlo Resort and Casino
Last year in Las Vegas, the Palisade Risk Conference set a new record for attendance. Help us make history again at this year’s conference on November 10-11 at the Monte Carlo Resort and Casino!

Present Your Case Study in Las VegasIf you have an interesting application of Palisade software which you would like to present, please send a short abstract to Jami Adams, at jadams@palisade.com. The closing date for abstracts to be submitted is August 15, 2011. If you would like to submit an abstract but need more time, please let us know.

All presenters attend the conference and social events at no charge.

» Conference overview
» View last year’s conference schedule and presentations


Case Study
Calculating ROI on Property with @RISK
South Africa-based RisqWorx is a consultancy specializing in risk applications. It has developed a suite of risk profiling modules, called PRISM-SUITE, which enable the management of corporate governance requirements. RisqWorx incorporates Monte Carlo simulation with @RISK into its PRISM-SUITE offering to model and quantify the likelihood and severity of risk associated with various projects.

Most recently, RisqWorx has been helping clients in property/real estate make more informed decisions about property acquisitions. RisqWorx’s @RISK model allows all the variables associated with property portfolios to be incorporated into the equation, such as the initial cost of the building, the construction and materials costs, the length of the building project, and much more. The complex calculations are then presented to board members of property companies in easy-to-understand Monte Carlo graphs. As a result of this due diligence, they are able to make an informed decision about which property purchases will make sound investments for their portfolio.

@RISK is a highly-prized software. Organizations can realize value from vast amounts of previously unused data which can now be used as inputs to the @RISK model, the outcomes of which will inform their decision making and drive profits.”  -Alan Cartmell, RisqWorx

» Read the full case study
» Learn more about RisqWorx
 


Product Spotlight
Using @RISK with PrecisionTree
in the DecisionTools Suite

@RISK is available with companion product PrecisionTree in the DecisionTools Suite. PrecisionTree creates decision trees in Excel to allow you to map and understand the complex decision problems. @RISK functions are recognized by PrecisionTree, and the two may be launched from a common Excel toolbar.

@RISK allows you to:

  1. quantify the uncertainty that exists in the values and probabilities which define your decision trees, and
  2. more accurately describe chance events as a continuous range of possible outcomes.
Using this information, @RISK performs a Monte-Carlo simulation on your decision tree, analyzing every possible outcome and graphically illustrating the risks you face.

With @RISK, all uncertain values and probabilities for branches in your decision trees, and supporting spreadsheet models, can be defined with distribution functions. When a branch from a decision or chance node has an uncertain value, for example, this value can be described by an @RISK distribution function. During a normal decision analysis, the expected value of the distribution function will be used as the value for the branch. The expected value for a path in the tree will be calculated using this value.

However, when a simulation is run using @RISK, a sample will be drawn from each distribution function during each iteration of the simulation. The value of the decision tree, and its nodes, will then be recalculated using the new set of samples and the results recorded by @RISK. A range of possible values will then be displayed for the decision tree. Instead of seeing a risk profile with a discrete set of possible outcomes and probabilities, a continuous distribution of possible outcomes is generated by @RISK. You can see the chance of any result occurring.

In decision trees, chance events must be described in terms of discrete outcomes (a chance node with a finite number of outcome branches). But, in real life, many uncertain events are continuous, meaning that any value between a minimum and maximum can occur. Using @RISK with PrecisionTree, makes modeling continuous events easier, using distribution functions. Also, @RISK functions can make your decision tree smaller and easier to understand!

» See a short video on using @RISK with PrecisionTree
» Read more about using @RISK with PrecisionTree
» Learn more about PrecisionTree


Upcoming_Webcasts
Introduction to Risk & Decision Analysis using
@RISK and the DecisionTools Suite

  Presented by Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade Corporation
  August 23, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade Corporation
  September 20, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

  Presented by Chris Marlow, Palisade Corporation
  October 25, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time,
» Register Now

  Presented by Doug Oldfield, Palisade Corporation
  November 29, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time,
» Register Now

Use of Simulation Models in Pricing Health
Insurance and Reinsurance Risk

Presented by Tim Robinson and David Wilson,
Windsor Strategy Partners, LLC
August 25, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Modeling Time Series Forecasts with @RISK
Presented by Eric Torkia, MASc, Executive Partner,
Analytics Practice, Technology Partnerz Ltd
September 9, 2011, 11:00am EDT
, » Register Now

Einführung zur Risiko- & Entscheidungsanalyse
mit @RISK und der DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Stephan Beeusaert, Palisade Corporation
September 21, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

Introducción al análisis de riesgo y decisión con
@RISK y DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
October 26, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

Introduction a l’analyse des Risques et décisions
avec @RISK et DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Manuel Carmona, Palisade Corporation
November 30, 2011, 10:00am GMT Summer Time
, » Register Now

Introduction to @RISK
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
July 27, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Modeling Insurance Risk & Decisions using the DecisionTools Suite
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
August 18, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Project Management Risk Modeling Methods
using The DecisionTools Suite

Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
September 8, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

Modeling Oil & Gas Risk Problems using the DecisionTools Suite
Presented by Rishi Prabhakar, Palisade Corporation
October 4, 2011, 2:00pm Australian EST
, » Register Now

» See complete Webcast schedule


Palisade Blog Headlines
Risk Analysis and Decision Support in Transport Projects
Tuesday, July 26, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
In Denmark, where gas costs around €1.65/liter ($9 USD/gallon), planners have to make transportation as efficient as possible.
» Read more

Better Property Investment Decisions with Risk Analysis Software
Monday, June 27, 2011 by DMUU Training Team
Property is a seemingly endless topic of conversation, media articles and television programmes in the UK, with a recurring theme being how to make money from investing in it.
» Read more

Call and Put as Fast as You Can
Tuesday, June 21, 2011 by Holly Bailey
In the always high-pressure world of the equity markets, the pressure has been dialed up on one of the most intensely speculative forms of financial risk analysis, the pricing of equity options. Earlier this year a software developer in Ireland teamed up with British hardware company to release a white paper describing what they are calling a new speed record in the pricing of options – 1 million options evaluated in 17 seconds.
» Read more

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Palisade

The Global Leader in Risk and Decision Analysis
Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.


 
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