Course at Brazilian Petroleum Institute Takes Lessons from Local Oil Industry
Most of Professor Luciano Arantes Rezende Costa’s students at the Brazilian Petroleum Institute work in the local oil industry.

So, when he teaches his 20-hour course on evaluation of petroleum exploration opportunities, he has to provide hands-on lessons his students can immediately apply in their own careers.

That’s where Palisade’s @RISK software comes into play.

"To illustrate the classes, I've created a very simple model in Excel for evaluating exploration opportunities and bidding on them," Prof. Costa says. "Using the flexibility of @RISK, I've included in this model uncertainty about how much petroleum could be found (recoverable volume); how much could be produced by year (production curve); and how much cash flow could be expected from the estimated production."

Prof. Costa speaks from experience. In addition to teaching at the Institute, he works full time for Petrobras, one of the world’s largest integrated energy companies. The Rio de Janeiro-based company currently produces about 2.6 million barrels of oil and natural-gas equivalent a day.

Prof. Costa first encountered @RISK while earning his master’s degree at Colorado School of Mines in 1997. He says @RISK continues to be one of the easiest ways to teach Monte Carlo Simulation, a computerized mathematical technique to account for risk in quantitative analysis and decision-making. "Students can visualize what is going on just by pressing a single button," he says.

"My classes are very practical because students can grasp the concepts easily and use @RISK to create new models for their own real-life problems," Prof. Costa says.

» Learn more about how Petrobras has integrated
   @RISK into their operations

Make Palisade Your Summer "Elective"
Are you interested in introducing your students to Palisade’s DecisionTools Suite software but aren’t sure how to go about it?

We understand that to teach your students about our tools, you must first know how to use them. That’s why the Palisade Course License includes complimentary web-based training.

From the comfort of your home or office, you can learn how to use the tools by following along on a virtual desktop with one of our professional instructors. And with multiple sessions offered throughout the summer, you can be up to speed by the start of the fall semester.

What is a Palisade Course License?

We have created a comprehensive solution that provides licensing for you, your students and your university lab – all backed by support materials and training. With the adoption of a Palisade Course License, you receive:

• One-year licenses for each student to install the software on his or her personal machine. Your students will have access to all seven tools in our decision analysis tool kit including our flagship product, @RISK.
• A network license for your school’s computer lab. This is ideal for students who do not have their own computers or for instructors who teach in a lab setting.
• A fully functioning and perpetual license of the DecisionTools Suite for you, as the instructor. With a commercial value of close to $3000, the license comes with a year of maintenance, including upgrades, updates and unlimited technical support at no charge. The license carries no watermarks, so it is perfect for demonstrations, research and reporting.

Textbook Advice

With a Palisade Course License, you will also receive four books published by DecisionTools Suite experts at Indiana University’s Kelley School of Business. Dr. Wayne Winston authored three of the books: "Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization I & II", and "Decision Making Under Uncertainty with RISKOptimizer". The fourth title is "Learning Statistics with StatTools" by Dr. Chris Albright.

These books contain a host of example models that can be used in the classroom. Many schools have also adopted these texts as required reading, and we can offer multiple copies at a discounted student rate.

Our goal is to make the transition to teaching with Palisade tools as effortless and rewarding as possible. If the Palisade Course License does not meet your needs, we are happy to work with you to find an alternative solution. If you are interested in learning more, please contact us at academic@palisade.com.

 The DecisionTools Suite is the most valuable
      analytical tool that I took away from my MBA
      education. Being able to efficiently incorporate
      data from other analytical sources, as well as
      the tight integration with Microsoft Office, made
      the Palisade suite of products the logical focal
      point of my analytical efforts. 

                            Jason Brennan, Information Systems,
                            Georgia Institute of Technology
 

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2010, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:

US and Canada:

International:

There are three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:

Palisade Academic Sales    
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000
academic@palisade.com

It is very important for these new decision
     makers to be entirely comfortable with the
     overwhelming amount and complexity of
     information they’ll have to deal with when
     they when they leave the school for that
     first big job. And we’re convinced that
     @RISK is the tool that can provide the most
     sophisticated perspective on the information
     they’ll use for decision making. 

                   Barbara Ostdiek, Finance Professor,
                             Jesse H. Jones Graduate School of Management,
                             Rice University

The DecisionTools Suite is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain "real world" benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Finding Value at Risk (VAR) of a Portfolio
Excerpted from Financial Models Using Simulation and Optimization by Wayne Winston, published by Palisade Corporation

Anybody who owns a portfolio of investments knows there is a great deal of uncertainty about the future worth of the portfolio. Recently the concept of value at risk (VAR) has been used to help describe a portfolio's uncertainty. Simply stated, value at risk of a portfolio at a future point in time is usually considered to be the fifth percentile of the loss in the portfolio's value at that point in time. In short, there is considered to be only one chance in 20 that the portfolio's loss will exceed the VAR. To illustrate the idea, suppose a portfolio today is worth $100. We simulate the portfolio's value one year from now and find there is a 5% chance that the portfolio's value will be $80 or less. Then the portfolio's VAR is $20 or 20%. The following example shows how @RISK can be used to measure VAR. The example also demonstrates how buying puts can greatly reduce the risk, or hedge, a long position in a stock.

 Download sample chapter and spreadsheet

The DecisionTools Suite is included in dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Essentials of Modern Business Statistics
with Microsoft Excel, 4th Edition
By David R. Anderson; Thomas A. Williams; Dennis J. Sweeney

From the renowned author team that has been writing market-leading business statistics textbooks for more than 20 years, this book provides a brief introduction to business statistics that balances a conceptual understanding of statistics with the real-world application of statistical methodology. The latest DecisionTools Suite software is utilized and included with the text as well.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Potential of Using New Technology for
Estimating Body Condition Scores
By Jeffrey M. Bewley, Department of Animal Science and Food Sciences, University of Kentucky and Michael M. Schutz, Department of Animal Sciences, Purdue University

Although the benefits of body condition scoring (BCS) are intuitive to most dairy industry professionals, relatively few dairy farms have incorporated it as part of their routine management strategy. The lack of adoption of this technique is largely attributable to subjectivity and time requirements. An automated BCS system would be less demanding of time by trained personnel, less stressful to cattle, more objective and consistent, and possibly more cost effective.

The economic feasibility of investment in an automated BCS system was also explored using a dynamic, stochastic simulation dairy model designed to examine investments in dairy intervention technologies. The model was created in Microsoft Excel using the @RISK add-in to consider the stochastic nature of key variables with Monte Carlo simulation.

 View the full paper

Professors using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips they've used in class in Palisade's Academic Webcast series. Register online at no charge.

Forestalling Foreclosure: Using @RISK
to Analyze Debt Capacity and Find a
Strategic Alternative to Default
Presented by Steven Slezak, California Polytechnic State University
June 23, 2011, 1:00pm ET

This webcast illustrates how even a simple @RISK simulation can provide valuable insights into a complicated financial issue and lead to a strategic solution.

» Register now
» See complete Webcast schedule

The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
» Textbooks using Palisade software

» BPI Course Takes
   Lessons from Local
   Oil Industry

» Make Palisade Your
   Summer "Elective"

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples
   Finding Value at Risk
   (VAR) of a Portfolio

» Textbook of the Month
   Essentials of Modern
   Business Statistics with
   Microsoft Excel, 4th Edition

» Featured White Paper
   Potential of Using New
   Technology for Estimating
   Body Condition Scores

» Academic Live Webcasts

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite
 

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and sneak previews of new software.
» Amsterdam: 29-30 March
» Mexico City: 1-2 June
» Rio de Janiero: 14-15 Sept
» Las Vegas: 10-11 Nov

These seminars are designed to show companies and individuals the benefits of using Palisade solutions – and will also show existing customers how the latest releases can add even more value to their business.
» Irvine, CA: 23 June 2011
» Atlanta, GA: 28 June 2011
» Dublin: 24 August 2011

» Trade Shows
Palisade will be attending the following trade shows in the coming months.
US/Canada
AACE International
June 19th – 23rd
Disneyland Hotel
Anaheim, CA
PMI Global Congress 2011
North America
October 22nd – October 25th
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
SPE ATCE
October 30th – November 3rd
Colorado Convention Center
Denver, CO
INFORMS Annual Meeting
November 13th – 16th
Charlotte Convention Center
Charlotte, NC
DSI - Decision Sciences Inst
November 19th – 22nd
Boston MA
Europe
MIOGE 2011
June 21st - 23rd
Moscow
58th ISI Congress 2011
August 21st - 26th
Dublin

» Training Seminars
Asia-Pacific
Melbourne: 6-7 July
Sydney: 20-22 July
Brisbane: 24-25 August
Melbourne: 12-13 October

EMEA & India
Copenhagen: 20-21 June
London: 27-28 June
London: 2-4 August
London: 6-7 September
Den Haag: 27-29 September
Munich: 11-12 October
London: 25-27 October

Latin America
México D.F.: 12-14 de julio
Santa Cruz Bolivia:
   16-18 de agosto
Bogotá, Colombia:
   29-31 de agosto
Buenos Aires, Argentina:
   19-21 de septiembre
Lima, Perú: 4-6 de octubre
Caracas, Venezuela:
   18-20 de octubre

North America
Kansas City, MO: 6-7 July
Seattle, WA: 19-21 July
Mount Laurel, NJ: 27-28 July
Toronto: 2-3 August
Jersey City: 16-17 August
Calgary: 31 Aug. - 1 Sept.
Denver: 13-15 September
Chicago: 27-28 September
Boston: 18-20 October

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
PART I
14-15 July, 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
10-11 August, 1pm-5pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I
22-23 Sept, 1pm-5pm ET

PART II
10-11 October, 1pm-5pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
11 July, 11am-3pm ET

» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.

Forestalling Foreclosure:
Using @RISK to Analyze Debt
Capacity and Find a Strategic
Alternative to Default
June 23, 2011, 1:00pm ET
Steven Slezak, California
Polytechnic State University
» Register

The Use of @RISK and
Economic Value Added
in Business Valuation
July 13, 2011, 10:00am ET
Marwaan Karame,
Managing Director,
Economic Value Advisors
» Register

Intuitive Project Management
Techniques for @RISK
for Project
July 22, 2011, 11:00am ET
John Sponholtz, PMP, CBAP,
RMP, and CQM
» Register

Use of Simulation Models in
Pricing Health Insurance and
Reinsurance Risk
August 11, 2011, 11:00am ET
Tim Robinson and
David Wilson, Windsor
Strategy Partners, LLC
» Register

Modeling Time Series
Forecasts with @RISK
September 9, 2011,
11:00am ET
Eric Torkia, MASc Executive
Partner, Analytics Practice
Technology Partnerz Ltd
» Register
 

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!


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used risk analysis tool
» @RISK for Excel
» @RISK for Project
» @RISK for Six Sigma


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