Cambridge University's Judge
Business School uses @RISK to
advise on climate change

The Judge Business School at Cambridge University in the UK performs scientific research in addition to management work. The School’s Management Research Group provided key input to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. The Review was the largest and most widely referenced report of its kind and was used by government bodies such as the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC). The report was undertaken for the British government by Lord Stern and discusses the effect of climate change and global warming on the world economy.

The research group developed an analysis model, PAGE2002 (for Policy Analysis of the Greenhouse Effect), using @RISK from Palisade. @RISK is an Excel add-in using Monte Carlo simulation to show all potential scenarios, as well as the likelihood that each will occur, thereby providing the decision-maker with the most complete picture possible.

PAGE 2002 was used by the staff at Stern to investigate climate change across the world. They researched issues such as the impacts of the sea level rising and increases in temperature making land infertile or unfarmable, and balanced these against the costs of various options available to tackle global warming. Dr Chris Hope, reader in policy modellng at Judge Business School, explains: “A key problem with investigating climate change is that the different effects of the various factors which influence it are themselves, undetermined. @RISK enables researchers to quantify this uncertainty in order that they have a measurement of the accuracy of their findings.”

» Read the full case study
» Judge Business School

 We had tremendous success with the @RISK
      product in our graduate Financial Modeling
      course offered for the first time last spring.
      We will now be offering this course each fall
      and spring semester. We had 24 students in
      our class last spring. The enrollment for this
      spring has already exceeded 50 with another
      week left in the enrollment period. 

     Professor David Dial, The University of Texas at Dallas

Over 60,000 students use the DecisionTools Suite annually in their MBA and graduate level programs. In 2010, over 800 universities worldwide adopted the DecisionTools Suite. Professors in business, engineering, OR, and other fields keep their students on the cutting edge by teaching the latest analytical techniques from Palisade. Some major schools with programs and courses that standardized on the DecisionTools Suite last month include:  

US and Canada:

International:

In a new segment, we would like to showcase a professor who is implementing Palisade tools into their teaching. For the month of January we would like to introduce you to Dr. Calum Turvey of Cornell University.

Dr. Calum Turvey, Cornell University

Calum Turvey, W.I. Myers Professor of Agricultural Finance, uses @RISK in his Risk Simulation and Optimization course. Offered by the Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management, Risk Simulation and Optimization is in its second year and has now become a regular course offering, with roughly 45 students per semester. @RISK is used to evaluate problems of finance, including capital budgeting, investments, random walks, derivatives pricing and real options. Calum was first exposed to Palisade’s tools when they were in their infancy: “If I recall, I was customer number 100 in 1987 when @RISK was introduced as a Lotus 1-2-3 application, and have used it ever since.”

On the importance of exposing his students to @RISK, Calum explains, “Students of finance are largely taught finance from the view of certainty. Adjustments are made in the standard investment model to adjust for risk, but these are generally not insightful. Risk assessment using probabilities is confined to simple decision trees. What we do in this course is take the standard textbook in finance, and chapter by chapter we convert everything to a probability model, starting with coordinated financial statements to investigate cash flow risk and on to NPV applications. On the derivatives side, I show how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to replicate options prices, and how Monte Carlo simulation can be used to price exotic options.”

Calum Turvey received his PhD from Purdue University in 1988, after which he joined the faculty of Agricultural Economics and Business at the University of Guelph, obtaining the rank of professor, until 2002. In 2002, he joined the faculty of Cornell’s Department of Agricultural, Food and Resource Economics as professor and director of the Food Policy Institute and Chair from 2003-2005. In 2005, he joined the Department of Applied Economics and Management as the W.I. Myers Professor of Agricultural Finance. He is the editor of “Agricultural Finance Review” and conducts research in the area of agricultural finance, risk management and agricultural policy.

» Calum Turvey’s work, on SSRN

There are a three easy ways to get the DecisionTools Suite for your students:

Get DecisionTools Suite 5.7 for your course by contacting:

Palisade Sales     Download vCard
800-432-7475 / 607-277-8000 / sales@palisade.com

  Students keep telling me how amazing
      @RISK is. It has made my class a lot more
      interesting.  

      Professor Ravi Mateti, Concordia University

The DecisionTools is a great way to present quantitative techniques in a straightforward, easy-to-understand way. Each month we feature an example or tip illustrating how students can gain “real world” benefits by implementing quantitative analysis.

Utilizing Palisade Video Tutorials

This month’s teaching tip is about utilizing the no-cost video tutorials offered by Palisade. We often find that customers are not aware of the video tutorials that we provide. For each product in the DecisionTools Suite, we offer short videos on how to get started. All of the tutorials have been translated into each of the 7 languages for which we offer the software.

A great way to introduce @RISK to your students is by having them watch the “2 Minute Overview,” which is the first video in the @RISK tutorial series. In just a few minutes, they can understand the power and ease-of-use of @RISK.

» View the "2 Minute Overview" now

There are two ways to access the video tutorials.  One way is to go directly to our video tutorial section on our web site.

» View the entire video tutorial library, with materials in English,
   Spanish, Portuguese, German, French, Japanese, and Chinese

The tutorials can also be launched while working in one any of the programs in the DecisionTools Suite. For example, while in @RISK, you can go to the Help Menu, and then select “Getting Started in @RISK.” This will launch the tutorial web page, so you will need to be connected to the internet.

The video tutorials are great reference for students and professors alike, to become familiar with Palisade products and begin utilizing them in models.

The DecisionTools Suite is included dozens of major textbooks, and is a key component of more titles every year. Authors use the DecisionTools Suite to illustrate key analytical concepts and build examples demonstrating the value of quantitative techniques in business, OR, and engineering.

Essentials of Modern Business
Statistics with Microsoft Excel,
4th Edition
By David R. Anderson; Thomas A. Williams; Dennis J. Sweeney

From the renowned author team that has been writing market-leading business statistics textbooks for more than 20 years, this book provides a brief introduction to business statistics that balances a conceptual understanding of statistics with the real-world application of statistical methodology. The latest version of Microsoft Excel 2007, is integrated throughout the text, showing step-by-step instructions and screen captures to enhance student learning. The fourth edition contains the same student learning features that have made ASW products best-sellers for years, including the problem-scenario approach and real-world examples that introduce statistical techniques. The latest DecisionTools Suite software is utilized and included with the text as well.

» Learn more from the publisher
» See a list of books bundled with Palisade software

Professors, PhD candidates, practitioners and others often use the DecisionTools Suite as part of a complex analysis to address important problems. These analyses are published in white papers. Each month we will feature a different academic white paper addressing a wide range of issues.

Simulating the Financial Consequences of the Subprime Mortgage Crisis
by Roy Nersesian, Columbia University

Roy Nersesian describes how the selling of mortgages as investments (collateralized mortgage obligations, or CMOs), coupled with lax governmental regulation and the greed of house flippers fueled the flames of the home buying and building frenzy. He uses an @RISK simulation to show exactly how and where the investors lost in the ensuing housing market meltdown.

 View the full paper

Professors using Palisade software share examples and teaching tips they've used in class in Palisade's Academic Webcast series. Register online at no charge.

Gambling, Money Management, and
Monte Carlo Simulation
Presented by Dr. Wayne Winston, Professor of Operations & Decision Technologies, Kelley School of Business at Indiana University
March 3, 2011, 1:00pm ET

Wayne Winston will demonstrate @RISK models that apply to various casino games such as roulette, keno, poker and craps. He will also explain the money management strategy (known as the Kelly Growth Criterion) adopted by the students profiled in the movie "21." (There is NO CHARGE for this webcast.)

» Register now

Palisade Corporation is the world’s leading provider of risk and decision analysis software and solutions. Founded in 1984, its products @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite are used by over 95% of the Fortune 100, in nearly every industry around the world. Palisade is headquartered in New York State, and has offices in London, Sydney, Rio de Janeiro, and Tokyo.

What is The DecisionTools Suite?

The DecisionTools Suite is the world’s only integrated set of risk and decision analysis programs. The Suite includes @RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, PrecisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for “what if” sensitivity analysis. In addition, DecisionTools Suite comes with StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together seamlessly, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

The Suite is offered in three affordable and flexible licensing options for those in academia: Student Versions, Course Licenses and Full Academic Versions.

» Schools using Palisade software
» Textbooks using Palisade software

» Recent School Adoptions

» Licensing Options

» Spotlight
   Dr. Calum Turvey
   Cornell University

» Teaching Tips &
   Examples
   Utilizing Palisade
   Video Tutorials

» Textbook of the Month
   Essentials of Modern
   Business Statistics
   with Microsoft Excel,
   4th Edition

» Featured White Paper
   Simulating the Financial
   Consequences of the
   Subprime Mortgage Crisis

» Academic Live Webcast
  "Gambling, Money Manage-
   ment, and Monte Carlo
   Simulation," with Dr. Wayne
   Winston

» About Palisade and the
   DecisionTools Suite

Industry experts present real-world case studies about innovative and interesting approaches to risk and decision analysis. Also, ever-popular workshops and training delivered by Palisade consultants, and previews of new software.
» Amsterdam:
   29-30 March
» México, D.F.:
   1-2 June
» Rio de Janeiro
   14-15 September
» Las Vegas
   10-11 November

» Trade Shows
Palisade will be attending the following trade shows in the coming months.
US/Canada
2011 ASQ Lean and
Six Sigma Conference
February 28th - March 1st
Phoenix, AZ
INFORMS Conference
on Business Analytics
and Operations Research
April 10th - 12th
Chicago, IL
PMI Global Congress 2011
North America
October 22nd – October 25th
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Middle East
MEOS 2011
March 21st -23rd
Manama, Bahrain
Europe
Gastech 2011
March 21st -24th
Amsterdam
PMI EMEA Global
Congress 2011
May 9th - 11th
Dublin
MIOGE 2011
June 21st - 23rd
Moscow
58th ISI Congress 2011
August 21st - 26th
Dublin

Brazil
São Paulo: 29-31 de março
Rio De Janeiro: 6-8 de abril

Europe
London: 1-3 February
Oslo: 3-4 February
Lisbon: 22-23 February
Barcelona: 28 Feb.- 1 March
London: 12-13 April
London: 24-25 May

India
Mumbai: 27 January
Bangalore: 31 January
New Delhi: 1 Feburary

Latin America
Quito: 26-28 de enero
Bogotá: 2-4 de febrero
México, D.F.: 8-10 de febrero
Lima: 9-11 de marzo
Buenos Aires: 21-23 de marzo
Santiago, Chile: 5-7 de abril
Panama: 18-20 de mayo

North America
Ottawa: 8-9 February
Houston: 22-24 February
Columbus, OH: 8-9 March
Washington, DC: 5-7 April
Phoenix: 19-21 April
Miami: 3-5 May
Chicago: 17-19 May

South Africa
Sandton: 8-9 March
Sandton: 10-11 March

» Live Web Training
Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using @RISK
PART I
27-28 Jan, 9am-1pm ET
28-29 April, 11am-3pm ET

PART II
17-18 Feb, 9am-1pm ET
12-13 May, 11am-3pm ET

Decision-Making and Quantitative Risk Analysis using the DecisionTools Suite
PART I
17-18 March, 9am-1pm ET
1-2 June, 11am-3pm ET

PART II
11-12 April, 9am-1pm ET
30 June - 1 July, 11am-3pm ET

Project Risk Assessment Using @RISK for Project
14 April, 9am-1pm ET
11 July, 11am-3pm ET

Análisis de decisión y de riesgo cuantitativo utilizando @RISK, PART I *nuevo*
14 al 15 de febrero
11am-3pm CST

Análisis de decisión y de riesgo cuantitativo utilizando @RISK, PART II *nuevo*
1 al 2 de marzo
11am-3pm CST

» Live Webcasts
These complimentary sessions are 30-60 minutes, held via web conference. See industry case studies, software demos, applications, and more.

Análise Quantitativa do Risco
com Simulação de Monte Carlo
15 de fevereiro de 2011,
14:15 EST
Dr. Marcos Huber Mendes
Palisade Corporation
» Registre-se agora

Better Management
of Product Pricing
Feb 17, 2011, 11:00am ET
Sean Ritchie, Manager, Clarisant Consulting
» Register

Palisade software is available in fully functional trial versions. Try @RISK or any of our software today!


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